Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox Preview
Both the Red Sox and Royals are sending their third-ranked pitchers to the mound, with Boston starting James Paxton and the Royals going with Brady Singer. The money line odds have the Royals as the favorite at -145, while the Red Sox are sitting at +123. This AL matchup has an over/under line of 9.5 runs, and BSKC is carrying the game on TV.
First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is set for 8:10 PM ET, and the forecast for Monday’s game calls for clear skies and temperatures near 100 degrees in Kansas City, MO. The Red Sox are 59-51, while the Royals are 63-50.
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Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red Sox Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Red Sox are 3-2. This includes going 3-2 vs. the runline.
- On the other side, the Royals have gone 4-1 (SU) and 3-2 in their previous five home contests.
- Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Royals have a straight-up record of 7-3, while going 5-5 against the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Red Sox have won 4-6 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 5-5 against the runline.
Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox Prediction
Heading into their last game vs. the Rangers, the Red Sox closed out the series with a 7-2 win. Leading up to the game, they were the slight favorite at +106 on the money line. It was a big 3rd inning that really turned things in their favor, and the Rangers could only score two runs, both of which came in the 1st.
Wilyer Abreu went 2/4 with two homers and four RBIs. The Red Sox really broke things open with a four-run 6th inning. Jarren Duran scored the other run for the Red Sox, going 3/4 with a homer.
Boston is 59-51 overall, putting them 3rd in the AL East, 6.5 games behind the Orioles for the division lead. The Red Sox are 14-13 in divisional games this season. They Red Sox are starting their series vs. the Royals on the road, and they are 32-23 on the road this year.
As the favorite, the Red Sox have gone 32-22 this year and 27-29 as the underdog. Boston has an overall series record of 18-13-5 this year, and they have won two straight series. Their most recent series win came vs. the Rangers.
When the Red Sox win, they win big, with an average run margin of 4.1 runs per game. They have been a good bet on the run line overall, going 52-58, but they have been much better on the road, where they are 31-24. They have been a better bet as an underdog, going 32-24 on the run line, compared to 20-34 as a favorite.
The Boston Red Sox are on the road today to face the Kansas City Royals. The over/under line for today’s game is set at 9.5 runs, which is slightly higher than their combined run average of 9.6 runs per game. The Red Sox have a 56-48 over/under record on the season, and their games have averaged 9 runs per game. Their games have gone over the 9.5-run line in 7 of 15 games when the line has been set at 9.5 runs. The over has hit in each of their last three games.
Left-hander James Paxton gets the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Royals on the road. He has made 19 starts this season and has a record of 8-3 with an ERA of 4.52. Paxton’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.46. In his 19 appearances, he has turned in six quality starts and is averaging 6.63 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Paxton took the loss, giving up three earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Opponents are batting .244 off Paxton this season.
Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox are 4th in the league in scoring at 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. Overall, they are one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams and have the league’s best team BABIP. As a team, the Red Sox are batting .262, which is the 2nd best mark in the league.
Rafael Devers and Tyler O’Neill are the top home run hitters in the Red Sox lineup, with Devers leading the team with 70 RBIs and O’Neill coming in at 45. Devers has been especially hot of late, going 16/39 (.410) with two homers over his last nine games. Jarren Duran is also swinging a hot bat, as he is on a six-game hitting streak and is batting .296 for the season.
To close out their series vs. the Tigers, the Royals picked up a 3-2 win. Leading up to the game, they were the slight favorite at -137 on the money line. It was a big 9th inning for the Royals, as they scored three runs in the top of the 9th to pick up the win. Kansas City’s offense was carried by MJ Melendez, who went 1/1 with a homer and three RBIs.
Chris Stratton picked up the win out of the bullpen, and Hunter Harvey picked up the save. Starter Michael Wacha went six innings, giving up just two runs on seven hits. He only had two strikeouts in the outing and got the no decision.
Kansas City is 63-50 overall this season, and they are five games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead. The Royals have gone 25-11 against other teams in the AL Central. They closed out their series vs. the Tigers with a win and took the series 3-1.
At home, the Royals are 36-22 this season compared to a 27-28 mark on the road. As the favorite, the Royals are 36-20 this season, and they are 27-30 as the underdog. Kansas City has won two straight series, and their overall series record is 17-18-1 this year.
The Royals have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 64-49 overall. They are 34-24 on the run line at home and 30-25 on the run line on the road. Their average run margin this season is +0.8 runs per game. They have been a better bet on the run line as an underdog, going 35-22, compared to 29-27 as a favorite. Their average run differential in wins is +3.9 runs per game, while it is -3.1 runs per game in losses. They have failed to cover the run line in their last two home games.
Today’s over/under line for the Kansas City Royals’ game against the Boston Red Sox is set at 9.5 runs. The Royals have a combined run average of 8.6 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 48-62. The average over/under line for their games is set at 8 runs, and their over/under record when the line is set at 9.5 runs is 5-5. Only 4.4% of their games this season have had over/under lines set at 9.5 runs or higher, with just five games having that high of a line.
Brady Singer will be looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win vs. the White Sox. In that start, he went seven innings and gave up three earned runs. Looking back further, Singer has been solid, as he has won his last three starts and didn’t give up a run in any of those outings. Singer’s ERA for the season is 2.88, along with a record of 8-6. Opponents are batting .229 vs. Singer this season. The right-hander has made 22 starts, 10 of which were quality starts. For the year, he has allowed 13 homers.
The Royals have been one of the league’s best home run-hitting teams this season, and they have three players who have gone deep at least 20 times this season. This includes shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., who is batting .344 for the season and is 6th in the league with 79 RBIs. Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez are tied for the team lead with 20 homers. Vinnie Pasquantino has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 9/27 in his last six games with four home runs.
Overall, the Royals are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 9th in the league. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.2 runs per game. As a team, the Royals are batting .253, and they have the fewest strikeouts in the league.
Our prediction for today’s Red Sox vs. Royals game is to take the Royals on the money line at -145. We have the Royals winning this one by a score of 6-5. If you’re looking for a parlay, you could also add the over, as the line is sitting at 9.5 runs, and we have this one finishing with 11 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have James Paxton finishing with six strikeouts compared to Brady Singer with five. However, Singer has a better chance of picking up the win, as he ranks fifth in our projections compared to Paxton at 10th.
Kansas City Royals vs Boston Red Sox Betting Tips
- Take the Royals on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Red Sox (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Kansas City Royals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Altavilla | Out | Oblique |
| Josh Taylor | Out | Biceps |
| Kyle Wright | Out | Shoulder |
| John Schreiber | Out | Knee |
Boston Red Sox Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Kenley Jansen | Questionable | Back |
| Liam Hendriks | Out | Elbow |
| Chris Martin | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Story | Out | Shoulder |
| Tyler O’Neill | Questionable | Illness |
| Lucas Giolito | Out | Elbow |
| Bryan Mata | Out | Lat |
| Triston Casas | Out | Ribs |
| Garrett Whitlock | Out | Elbow |
| Justin Slaten | Out | Elbow |
| Vaughn Grissom | Out | Hamstring |
| Chris Murphy | Out | Elbow |
