Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Preview
From Minute Maid Park in Houston, we have an American League matchup between the Mariners and Astros. First pitch on Saturday is set for 7:15 PM ET. FOX is handling TV coverage for tonight’s game.
Seattle comes in with a record of 17-15, while the Astros are currently 12-20. Framber Valdez is starting for the Astros, and he is facing off against Logan Gilbert for the Mariners. The over/under line is at 8 runs, and the Astros are the favorite at -143.
Check out BetCoco for Houston Astros – Seattle Mariners odds
Houston Astros Trends and Key Stats
- The Mariners are 3-2 across their last five road games. They have gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- The Astros, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 2-3 (SU) and 2-3 record.
- Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Astros have a straight-up record of 4-6, while going 3-7 against the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Mariners have won 4-6 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 5-5 against the runline.
Houston picked up a 5-3 win over the Mariners in the most recent game of this series. The Astros had a huge 7th inning, scoring four of their five runs. As for the Mariners, they scored two of their three runs in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Astros were favored at -118 on the money line.
Ronel Blanco started for the Astros and picked up the win, going six innings and giving up three earned runs. He finished the game with six strikeouts but issued two walks. Josh Hader got the save. George Kirby had a good outing for the Mariners, giving up just one earned run across six innings of work.
Yainer Diaz and Joey Loperfido each had two hits and an RBI for the Astros’ offense. Dylan Moore did the most damage for the Mariners, going 1/3 with a home run and two RBIs.
Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Prediction
Seattle is on the road today, taking on the Astros with an overall record of 17-15. The Mariners currently lead the AL West by a half-game over the Rangers and have gone 2-2 in divisional matchups. Seattle is looking to snap a two-game losing streak, which came after winning five straight games.
At home, the Mariners have gone 11-8 this year and are just above .500 at 6-7 on the road. So far, they have really struggled in day games, going just 3-8 this season. Seattle’s overall series record is 5-4-1, and they have won five straight series overall. As for their record as the underdog, the Mariners are 6-8 and 2-6 as the road underdog. When favored, Seattle has gone 11-7 this year.
Seattle has a run line record of 15-17 on the season, with a run line record of 9-10 at home and 6-7 on the road. Their average run differential on the season is +0.2 runs per game, but that number jumps to +0.5 runs per game on the road. As the favorite, they are 8-10 on the run line, while as the underdog they are 7-7. In their wins, they are winning by an average of 3.1 runs per game, while in their losses they are losing by an average of -3.1 runs per game.
Seattle’s over/under record is 7-23, and the under has hit in 10 straight games. Their games have averaged 6.9 runs per game this season, and the O/U line for tonight’s game against the Astros is 8. The O/U line has been set at 8 in six of their games this season, and their record in those games is 1-4-1. The over/under line has been set at 8 in 28.1% of their games this season.
Through six starts, Logan Gilbert has a record of 2-0 and an ERA of 2.02 for the Mariners. He has made five quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he didn’t allow a run. In that April 23rd start vs. the Rangers, Gilbert went 6 2/3 innings, giving up just two hits and four walks. Overall, he has allowed five homers this season. Gilbert’s WHIP for the season is currently 0.80. For the year, opponents are batting .159 off the right-hander. Gilbert’s strikeout total for the season is 44, and his strikeouts per nine innings figure is 9.9.
Seattle’s offense has been one of the worst in the league this season, averaging just 3.6 runs per game, which is the worst mark in the league. They have been even worse at home, averaging just 3.1 runs per game. As a team, they are batting just .219 and have the league’s worst strikeout rate. The Mariners do have a few hitters with solid home run numbers, with Cal Raleigh’s six homers being the best on the team and 5th best in the league.
Jorge Polanco has the Mariners’ longest active hitting streak at five games and has two homers in his last five games, going 6/21 over that stretch. Mitch Haniger has a team-high 18 RBIs but is batting just .211 for the season. The Mariners will need him to get going if they are going to turn around their offensive struggles.
After winning the first two games of their series vs. the Mariners, the Astros are five games below .500 at 12-20. They are 5th in the AL West, five games behind the Mariners for the division lead. So far, they have gone 5-3 in divisional matchups this year.
Houston has an overall series record of 4-5-1 this year, and they have won two straight series. As the favorite, the Astros are 10-17 this year and 2-3 as the underdog. At home, they are 7-7 when favored. Their overall record at home is 7-10 compared to 5-10 on the road. The Astros have won two straight games, and their record is an even 5-5 over their last 10 contests.
When the Astros win, they tend to win big, with an average run margin of 5.0 in those games. They have a run line record of 12-20 on the season, but they have covered the run line in their last two games. They are 7-10 against the run line at home and 5-10 on the road. As the favorite, they are 9-18 against the run line, while they are 3-2 as the underdog.
The Astros’ over/under record for the season is 10-20, and their average over/under line is 10 runs per game. However, their games have averaged 9.6 runs per game, and today’s over/under line is set at 8 runs. Houston’s games have had an over/under line set at 8 runs just once this season, and that game ended with 8 total runs.
After picking up a win in his last start, Framber Valdez and the Astros are back at home to take on the Mariners. Valdez has been solid in his first two outings, as he went 7 2/3 innings in his first start and then went 5 innings in his last outing, giving up 2 earned runs on 5 hits.
Jose Altuve has been on a tear of late, hitting .324 over his last eight games, and he is also on a five-game hitting streak. Altuve has two homers in this stretch and has driven in five runs. Kyle Tucker has also been swinging a hot bat, going 8/29 in his last eight games with three homers. For the season, Tucker is 9th in the league with 21 RBIs and is batting .283.
As a team, the Astros are 2nd in the league in batting average and are the top team in the league at not striking out. Overall, they are averaging 4.6 runs per game, and are even better at home, where they are putting up 5.1 runs per contest. Houston is also one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams.
Our prediction for today’s Mariners vs. Astros matchup is to take the Astros on the money line. The payout for an Astros win is -143, and we have them winning this one by a score of 6-5.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Framber Valdez finishing with six strikeouts, which is good for eighth among starters. As for Logan Gilbert, he is projected to finish with four K’s, which has him at 18th.
Offensively, the Astros are actually one of the best teams in terms of home runs today, with them projected to hit the second-most in the league. As for the Mariners, they are down in 10th.
If you’re looking for a potential parlay, you could pair an Astros win with the over, as the line is sitting at eight runs.
Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Betting Tips
- Take the Astros on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Mariners (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Houston Astros Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Kendall Graveman | Out | Shoulder |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Out | Arm |
| Cristian Javier | Out | Neck |
| Luis Garcia | Out | Elbow |
| Chas McCormick | Out | Hamstring |
| Bennett Sousa | Out | Shoulder |
| Grae Kessinger | Out | Shoulder |
| José Urquidy | Out | Forearm |
| Penn Murfee | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Ortega | Out | Elbow |
Seattle Mariners Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| J.P. Crawford | Out | Oblique |
| Gregory Santos | Out | Lat |
| Jackson Kowar | Out | Elbow |
| Eduard Bazardo | Out | Shoulder |
| Matt Brash | Out | Elbow |
| Bryan Woo | Out | Elbow |
| Dominic Canzone | Out | Shoulder |
