Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Preview
Joe Ryan is starting for the Twins on Saturday, and he will be looking to help Minnesota extend their two-game winning streak. The Twins are 32-25 this season and they are 3rd in the AL Central. The Astros are 3rd in the AL West with a record of 25-33.
Saturday’s forecast in Houston calls for thunderstorms, with the chance of rain being at 70%. Framber Valdez is set to start for the Astros, and they are the slight favorite on the money line (-126). The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs.
Check out BetCoco for Houston Astros – Minnesota Twins odds
Houston Astros Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Twins are 3-2. This includes going 2-3 vs. the runline.
- On the other side, the Astros have gone 2-3 (SU) and 2-3 in their previous five home contests.
- Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Astros have a straight-up record of 4-6, while going 3-7 against the runline.
- Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Twins have a 5-5 straight-up record and a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
It was all Minnesota in the last game of this series, as the Twins took down the Astros by a score of 6-1. The Twins offense only had two more hits than the Astros and struck out eight times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were at -104 on the money line.
This game featured a starting pitching matchup between Pablo Lopez for the Twins and Ronel Blanco for the Astros. Lopez went seven innings and gave up just one hit and one earned run, picking up a win in the game. Blanco struggled, giving up four earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings of work.
Minnesota’s two homers came from Trevor Larnach and Carlos Santana. Larnach, Alex Bregman, and Jorge Polanco each had two RBIs for the Twins’ offense.
Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Prediction
Minnesota is 32-25 overall and trails the Guardians by six games in the AL Central. The Twins have won two straight games, and they are 8-2 over their last 10 games, which includes taking the first game of this series vs. the Astros. In the AL Central, they are 15-11 in divisional games.
So far, the Twins have been good both at home and on the road, as they are 16-13 in each location. As the underdog, Minnesota is 7-12 this year, and they have won two straight as the underdog overall. The Twins’ overall series record is 10-6-2, and they have won three straight series.
Minnesota is 27-30 against the run line this season, but they have been a better bet on the road, where they are 16-12. The Twins have a positive run differential on the road this season, averaging 0.5 more runs per game than their opponents. They have covered the run line in each of their last two games as the underdog.
When the Minnesota Twins are on the road, the over/under line is set at an average of 8 runs per game. This season, the over/under record for the Twins is 25-30, and their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game. When the line is set at 7.5 runs, the over/under record is 7-7. The Twins have played 35 games with lines set higher than 7.5 runs, which accounts for 61.4% of their games. They have played just 8 games with lines set lower than 7.5 runs, which accounts for 14.0% of their games.
Minnesota is sending right-hander Joe Ryan to the mound today as he faces the Astros on the road. Ryan has made 11 starts this year and has a record of 4-3 with a 2.96 ERA. In his 11 appearances, he has turned in eight quality starts. Ryan’s WHIP for the season is currently .94, and opponents are batting .208 off him this year. In his last outing, Ryan gave up just one earned run in seven innings of work, picking up the win. Before that, he had given up at least four earned runs in three straight starts.
So far this season, the Twins offense has been pretty good on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per game, which is 4th in the league. However, they have been much better in terms of power at home, as their team ISO of .165 is 4th in the league. Overall, they are 10th in home runs and are averaging 4.5 runs per game (9th). As a team, the Twins are batting just .233, which is 15th in the league.
Ryan Jeffers has been the Twins’ top power threat this season, as his 12 homers are 7th in the league, and he is also 11th in the MLB with 36 RBIs. Jeffers is also batting .256. Willi Castro comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak and is batting .266 for the season. Over his last seven games, Alex Kirilloff is hitting .353 with two homers.
Houston is 3rd in the AL West, trailing the Mariners by 6.5 games. Overall, the Astros are 25-33, and they are 13-11 against other teams in the AL West. The Astros lost the series opener vs. the Twins and are 4-6 across their last ten games.
At home, the Astros are 14-16 this year and 11-17 on the road. So far, they have been the favorite in 45 games, going 19-26 in those contests. As for their games as the underdog, the Astros are 6-7 this year.
When the Astros win, they do so by an average of 4.2 runs per game, but when they lose, they lose by an average of 3.5 runs per game. Their run line record is 23-35, and they have a run line record of 12-18 at home. They are 11-17 on the run line on the road and have failed to cover the run line in four straight games at home.
When the Houston Astros play at home, the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average in their games this season is 8.8 runs per game. The Astros have gone over the total in 21 of their 34 games this season, and their games have had an average over/under line of 9 runs. When the line is set at 7.5 runs, they have gone 3-6 to the over. The over has hit in seven straight games for Houston.
Framber Valdez will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing as he gets the start for the Astros today. The left-hander is coming off a game in which he gave up three earned runs and took the loss in six innings of work. Looking back over his last three outings, Valdez has given up at least two homers in each start. For the season, he has a record of 3-3, an ERA of 4.34, and has issued 2.83 walks per nine innings compared to 7.17 strikeouts. Valdez has made four quality starts this year.
Heading into today’s game, the Astros are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 13th in the league. They have been a better offense at home this season, averaging 4.8 runs per game. Overall, they have the league’s 5th best home run total and are the league’s top team in terms of avoiding strikeouts. As a team, they are batting .258, which is the 2nd best mark in the league.
Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez are both on four-game hitting streaks, with Altuve batting .291 for the season and Alvarez at .273. Kyle Tucker has been the team’s top power threat, as his 18 homers is the best mark on the team and 2nd in the league. Over his last eight games, Alex Bregman is batting .273 with three homers.
Our prediction is that the Astros will come away with a 6-4 win over the Twins. With the money line payout for the Astros sitting at -126, this is the bet we recommend making.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Framber Valdez has a much better chance of picking up a win than Joe Ryan. Valdez is projected to finish with six strikeouts compared to Ryan, who we have finishing with five.
Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Betting Tips
- Take the Astros on the moneyline
- The Astros should also cover at -1.5
- Projecting a combined 10 runs, we like the over
Houston Astros Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Kendall Graveman | Out | Shoulder |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Out | Forearm |
| Cristian Javier | Out | Forearm |
| Luis Garcia | Out | Elbow |
| Bennett Sousa | Out | Shoulder |
| José Urquidy | Out | Forearm |
| Penn Murfee | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Ortega | Out | Elbow |
Minnesota Twins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | Out | Elbow |
| Zack Weiss | Out | Shoulder |
| Brock Stewart | Out | Shoulder |
| Royce Lewis | Out | Quadricep |
| Justin Topa | Out | Knee |
| Daniel Duarte | Out | Elbow |
