Houston Astros vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview
From Minute Maid Park in Houston, we have an interleague matchup between the Brewers and Astros. First pitch for this one is set for 2:10 PM ET, and BSWI will be televising it. The money line odds have the Astros at -135 compared to the Brewers at +115, and the over/under line is sitting at 9 runs.
The Astros are 3rd in the AL West and are 20-26, while the Brewers are 1st in the NL Central with a record of 27-18. Sunday’s starting pitching matchup features Colin Rea for the Brewers and Spencer Arrighetti for the Astros.
Check out BetCoco for Houston Astros – Milwaukee Brewers odds
Houston Astros Trends and Key Stats
- The Brewers are 2-3 in their five most recent road games, including a 3-2 runline record.
- Conversely, the Astros have achieved a 3-2 (SU) record and 3-2 record in their last five home games.
- Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Astros have won 7-3 straight-up, and have a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Brewers have won 5-5 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 8-2 against the runline.
It was all Milwaukee in the last game of this series, as the Brewers took down the Astros by a score of 4-2. The Brewers offense only had two more hits than the Astros and struck out nine times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were at +152 on the money line.
This game featured a starting pitching matchup between Bryse Wilson for the Brewers and Justin Verlander for the Astros. Wilson only went 4 2/3 innings but gave up just two hits and two earned runs. On the other side, Verlander was tagged for four runs in 4 2/3 innings of work.
Milwaukee’s two biggest innings came in the 1st and 5th. They scored four runs in the 1st but didn’t score another run until putting up four more in the 5th. As for the Astros, they scored their only two runs in the 5th.
Houston Astros vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Milwaukee currently leads the NL Central by 2 games over the Cubs, and they are 27-18 overall. The Brewers are 13-7 against other teams in the NL Central. They have won two straight games as the underdog, and they are 14-9 as the underdog on the season.
At home, the Brewers are 12-9 this year, and they have been really good on the road at 15-9. The Brewers have an overall series record of 8-4-2 this year, and they have won two straight series.
When it comes to run line betting, the Brewers have been a good bet on the road this season, going 15-9. They have an average run margin of 1.3 runs per game on the road and a 1.0 run margin overall. They are 16-7 against the run line as an underdog and have covered the run line in their last two games as the underdog. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.7 runs per game.
The Milwaukee Brewers have played 45 games this season, and 41 of them have had over/under lines set at less than 9 runs. Their games have averaged 9.3 runs per game, and their over/under record is 27-18. Today’s over/under line is set at 9 runs, and the Brewers’ games have averaged 8 runs per game this season.
Right-hander Colin Rea gets the start for the Brewers today as he faces the Astros on the road. Rea has made eight starts this year and has a record of 3-1 with a 3.45 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Rea has a WHIP of 1.26 and has allowed a total of six home runs. In his last outing, Rea took the loss, giving up three earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had turned in a quality start and picked up the win. Rea’s ERA on the road is 3.57 compared to 3.38 at home.
William Contreras has been on a tear of late for the Brewers, going 8/21 in his last five games with two homers and seven RBIs. For the season, he is batting .350 with seven homers and 37 RBIs, which is 2nd in the league. Rhys Hoskins has also been a big power threat for the Brewers, as his nine homers are 6th in the league, and he has gone deep in two of his past four games.
As a team, the Brewers are the 3rd highest-scoring offense in the league at 5.1 runs per game. They have been especially good at home, averaging 5.2 runs per game. Overall, they are the league’s 3rd best hitting team, and they also do a good job of working counts, as they are 6th in walks and have the 3rd best on-base percentage in the league.
Houston is 20-26 overall and trails the Mariners by five games in the AL West. So far, they have gone 9-5 in divisional games. The Astros are coming off a season in which they went 29-31 but still made the playoffs and advanced to the ALCS.
At home, the Astros are 12-13 this year compared to an 8-13 mark on the road. Heading into today’s game, the Astros have won two straight series, and their overall series record is 6-7-1.
When betting the run line, the Astros have been a better play at home this season, going 11-14 compared to 8-13 on the road. As the favorite, they are just 13-22 against the run line, while as the underdog, they are 6-5. Their average run differential in games they win is +4.4, while in losses, it is -3.8.
Despite the Astros’ combined run average of 9.2, the over/under line for their games this season has been set at an average of 9 runs. Their over/under record for the season is 17-26, and when the line has been set at 9 runs, they have gone 6-4-2. So far this season, 30.4% of their games have had over/under lines set above 9 runs, while 43.5% have had lines set below 9 runs.
Houston is starting right-hander Spencer Arrighetti today vs. the Brewers. He has made six starts this year and has a record of 1-4 with a 7.52 ERA. Arrighetti’s WHIP for the season is 1.90, and opponents are batting .312 off him this year. In his last outing, he picked up the win, going five innings and giving up two earned runs on five hits. Before that, he had given up at least two homers in three straight starts. The right-hander has a 13.27 ERA on the road compared to 3.76 at home.
Heading into today’s game, the Astros are the top-hitting team in the league, batting .262 as a team. They also have the fewest strikeouts in the league and are 5th in home runs. Overall, they are averaging 4.5 runs per game and have been even better at home, where they are 7th in the league at 4.8 runs per contest.
Jose Altuve and Kyle Tucker are both among the league leaders in home runs, with Tucker’s 29 RBIs also being 10th in the league. Tucker has a team-best 13 homers and is batting .284. Jeremy Pena is hitting .324 for the Astros and has gone deep five times. Over his last eight games, Alex Bregman is 10/31 with three homers and seven RBIs.
Our prediction for this Astros vs. Brewers matchup is that the Astros will come out on top by a final score of 6-5. Given that they are at home, we like the Astros’ money line as our recommended pick, and you can get them at -135.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Spencer Arrighetti is projected to finish with five strikeouts, and he ranks 15th among starters in terms of strikeout projections. As for Colin Rea, he is projected to finish with four strikeouts, ranking him 20th among starters.
Houston Astros vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips
- Take the Astros on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Brewers (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Houston Astros Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Pressly | Questionable | Finger |
| Kendall Graveman | Out | Shoulder |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Out | Arm |
| Luis Garcia | Out | Elbow |
| Chas McCormick | Out | Hamstring |
| Ronel Blanco | Out | Suspension |
| Bennett Sousa | Out | Shoulder |
| José Urquidy | Out | Forearm |
| Penn Murfee | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Ortega | Out | Elbow |
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Rhys Hoskins | Out | Hamstring |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Jakob Junis | Out | Shoulder |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Lat |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Garrett Mitchell | Out | Finger |
| Joey Wiemer | Out | Knee |
