Houston Astros vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview
The Astros will be looking to extend their six-game winning streak when they host the Brewers at Minute Maid Park in Houston. However, they are facing a Brewers club that is 1st in the NL Central with a record of 26-18. Milwaukee is the slight underdog on the money line today (+131), and the over/under line is sitting at 8.5 runs.
First pitch for this interleague matchup is set for 7:10 PM ET, and BSWI will be televising the game. Justin Verlander is starting for the Astros, while the Brewers are sending Bryse Wilson to the mound.
Check out BetCoco for Houston Astros – Milwaukee Brewers odds
Houston Astros Trends and Key Stats
- The Brewers are 1-4 across their last five road games. They have gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Astros have a 3-2 (SU) record, along with a 3-2 record in their last five home contests.
- As the favorite, the Astros are 7-3 over their last ten games, including going 6-4 vs. the runline.
- Looking at the Brewers’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 5-5 straight-up and 8-2 vs. the runline.
It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Astros vs Brewers series. Houston went into the matchup as slight underdogs at -104 and squeaked out a 5-4 win. Milwaukee had a chance to tie or win the game in the 9th inning but could only muster one run.
Milwaukee wasted a good outing from Freddy Peralta, as he went five innings and gave up just two hits and two earned runs. Hunter Brown started for the Astros and also gave up two earned runs across five innings of work.
Jeremy Pena and Jake Meyers each homered for the Astros, while Jon Singleton went 2/4 with an RBI. Victor Caratini and Kyle Tucker also had two hits apiece.
Houston Astros vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Milwaukee is 26-18 overall and leads the NL Central by two games over the Cubs. The Brewers dropped the first game of their series vs. the Astros and are 8-4-2 in series this year. Overall, they have gone 6-4 across their last 10 games.
So far, the Brewers have been good on the road, putting together a record of 14-9. As the road underdog, Milwaukee has gone 10-5 this year. Their two-game losing streak on the road comes after winning seven straight as the road underdog. As the favorite, the Brewers are 13-9 this year.
The Brewers have a run line record of 22-22 on the season, including a 14-9 mark on the road. They have a run line record of 15-7 as an underdog, but are just 7-15 as a favorite. Their average run differential is +0.9 runs per game, and they have a run line losing streak of two games on the road.
With a combined run average of 9.4 runs per game, the Milwaukee Brewers have been involved in high-scoring contests this season. Their over/under record is 27-17, and when the line is set at 8.5 runs, the over has hit in 16 of those games. The Brewers are currently on a two-game over streak, and their games have averaged 9 runs per game this season.
Right-hander Bryse Wilson is getting the start for the Brewers today as he faces the Astros on the road. Wilson has made five starts this season and has a record of 2-1 with a 2.65 ERA. So far, he has turned in two quality starts and is coming off an outing where he gave up two earned runs in four innings of work. In that start, he gave up five hits, one walk, and one home run. Wilson has a WHIP of 1.12 and is averaging 7.41 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are batting .190 off Wilson this season.
Heading into today’s game, the Brewers are the 3rd highest-scoring team in the league, averaging 5.2 runs per game. They have been even better at home, also averaging 5.2 runs per contest. Overall, they are 3rd in team batting average (.259) and have the 3rd most home runs in the league. Milwaukee’s offense has been hot of late, as Jake Bauers has gone 6/14 in his last five games, and Joey Ortiz is on a four-game hitting streak while batting .391 in his last seven games.
Catcher William Contreras has been the Brewers’ top hitter this season, batting .353 with a team-high 34 RBIs. He also has an on-base percentage of .430. Over his last seven games, Contreras has gone 11/26 with seven runs scored. Rhys Hoskins and Willy Adames are also among the team’s top home run hitters, with nine and seven homers, respectively.
The Astros have won six straight games, and they are 20-25 overall this season. In the AL West, they are four games behind the Mariners for the division lead. So far, they have gone 9-5 in divisional games. Houston’s six-game winning streak has come after going just 12-23 over their first 35 games.
At home, the Astros are 12-12 this season and 8-13 on the road. They have won five straight at home as the favorite, and their overall record as the favorite is 15-19. As for their record as the underdog, they are 5-6 this year. Houston’s overall series record is 6-7-1, and they have won two straight series.
When the Astros win, they usually win big, as their average run margin in victories is +4.4. However, their average run margin in losses is -3.9. Houston is 19-26 against the run line this season, including an 11-13 mark at home. They have covered the run line in three straight games at home and are 6-5 as an underdog.
So far this season, the Astros have played in 42 games, and 26 of them have had over/under lines set higher than 8.5 runs. Their games have averaged 9.3 runs per game, and their over/under record is 17-25. Today’s over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, and in the 11 games they’ve had with that line, the over has hit 7 times.
After starting the season with a no-decision, a loss, and then a win, Justin Verlander is back at home for his 4th start of the season. In his last outing, he went 7 innings and struck out 8 batters, giving up just 2 hits and 2 earned runs in a win over the Tigers.
As a team, the Astros are batting .262, which is the best mark in the league right now. They also lead the league in home runs and have the best slugging percentage in the league. Houston’s offense is averaging 4.6 runs per game, and they have been even better at home, averaging 4.9 runs per game.
Over his last five games, Alex Bregman has been hot, going 8/18 with three home runs. Kyle Tucker has also been swinging a hot bat, going 7/16 in his last five games. Tucker is currently leading the Astros in home runs and is 10th in the league in RBIs. Jose Altuve and Kyle Tucker are also on solid hitting streaks, with Altuve at five games and Tucker at seven.
Our prediction for today’s Brewers vs. Astros game is that the Astros will pick up a 6-5 win at home. Given that they are the favorites on the money line, we would recommend taking the Astros to win at -154.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Justin Verlander is projected to finish with seven strikeouts, which is the third-best among today’s starters. As for Bryse Wilson, he is projected to finish with just three strikeouts, which is the lowest among today’s starters.
Houston Astros vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips
- Take the Astros on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Brewers (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Houston Astros Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Kendall Graveman | Out | Shoulder |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Out | Arm |
| Luis Garcia | Out | Elbow |
| Chas McCormick | Out | Hamstring |
| Ronel Blanco | Out | Suspension |
| Bennett Sousa | Out | Shoulder |
| José Urquidy | Out | Forearm |
| Penn Murfee | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Ortega | Out | Elbow |
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Rhys Hoskins | Out | Hamstring |
| Devin Williams | Out | Back |
| Jakob Junis | Out | Shoulder |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Lat |
| DL Hall | Out | Knee |
| Garrett Mitchell | Out | Finger |
| Joey Wiemer | Out | Knee |
