Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Preview
From Minute Maid Park in Houston, we have an AL matchup between the Royals and Astros. First pitch for this one is set for 8:10 PM ET. The Astros are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -157, while the Royals are +133 underdogs. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs.
The Royals will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak, as they are 75-60 on the season and are 2nd in the AL Central. Houston is 1st in the AL West with a record of 72-62 and will be sending Framber Valdez to the mound vs. a Royals team that has Seth Lugo starting.
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Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Royals are 3-2. This includes going 2-3 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Astros have a 2-3 (SU) record, along with a 3-2 record in their last five home contests.
- The Astros have a straight-up record of 6-4 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 5-5 record vs. the runline.
- Looking at the Royals’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 4-6 straight-up and 4-6 vs. the runline.
Houston picked up a 6-3 win over the Royals in the most recent game of this series. The Astros had a big 8th inning, scoring four of their six runs. As for the Royals, they scored three of their four runs in the 7th. Heading into the game, the Astros were favored at -161 on the money line.
Brady Singer got the start for the Royals, going six innings and giving up two earned runs. He finished the game with six strikeouts but took the loss. Hunter Brown put together a good outing for the Astros, getting the win after going 6 2/3 innings and not giving up a run.
Yordan Alvarez went 2/4 with two RBIs to lead the Astros’ offense. Jason Heyward and Mauricio Dubon each drove in two for Houston’s lineup. Maikel Garcia had a two-hit game for the Royals.
Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Prediction
The Royals are 75-60 overall and trail the Guardians by 1.5 games in the AL Central. Kansas City is 29-14 against other teams in the division. The Royals are on a two-game losing streak, and this losing streak came after winning four straight games.
At home, the Royals are 41-28 this season, and they are just above .500 at 34-32 on the road. So far, they have gone 18-23 as the road underdog. Kansas City has an overall series record of 20-21-2 this year, and they have won two straight series on the road.
Despite having a run differential of +0.8 runs per game on the road, the Royals have struggled to cover the run line in their last two games, both of which they were favored in. Overall, they are 36-30 against the run line on the road this season.
When the Kansas City Royals are on the road, the over/under line has been set at 8 runs for their game against the Houston Astros. The combined run average for Royals games this season is 9.0 runs per game, and their over/under record for the season is 63-68. The average over/under line for Royals games this season is 9 runs, and their over/under record when the line is set at 8 runs is 14-11-2. Overall, 63.7% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs, and their current over streak is at 2 games.
Seth Lugo gets the start for the Royals today as he faces the Astros on the road. He has made 27 starts this year and has a record of 14-8 with a 3.19 ERA. Lugo’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.12. In his 27 appearances, he has turned in 18 quality starts and is coming off a rough outing vs. the Phillies, where he gave up five earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Lugo’s ERA at home is 3.53 compared to 3.64 on the road.
Heading into today’s game, the Royals are 5th in the league in scoring, averaging 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .257, which is 4th in the league, and are also one of the league’s best teams at avoiding strikeouts. Overall, the Royals are 6th in slugging and 2nd in isolated power.
Salvador Perez and Bobby Witt Jr. are the top two home run hitters in the Royals lineup, with 28 and 25 home runs, respectively. Perez is also 6th in the league in RBIs, while Vinnie Pasquantino is 4th in the MLB with 97 RBIs. Witt Jr. is hitting .263 over his last five games, while Perez has gone 7/20 in that stretch.
The Astros are 72-62 overall this season, and they lead the AL West by four games over the Mariners. Houston has won two straight games, and they are 21-18 against other teams in the AL West. So far, they have been good at home and on the road, as they are 36-29 at home and 36-33 on the road.
As the favorite, the Astros have gone 54-43 this year and 18-19 as the underdog. Looking at their overall series record, the Astros are 23-18-2, and they are winning their current series vs. the Royals. Houston took the series opener vs. Kansas City and are 4-6 over their last 10 games.
When the Astros win, they do so by an average of 3.8 runs per game. That’s why they are 44-53 against the run line as a favorite. They are 25-12 against the run line as an underdog. Their overall run line record is 69-65, with a run differential of +0.6 runs per game. They have covered the run line in two straight games.
The Astros are hosting the Royals today, and the over/under line is set at 8 runs. Both teams have a combined run average of 8.6 runs per game this season, and the Astros’ over/under record is 53-76. The average over/under line for their games this season has been 9 runs, and their record when the line is set at 8 runs is 11-13-2. Overall, 60.4% of their games this season have had over/under lines set at more than 8 runs.
Left-hander Framber Valdez gets the start for the Astros today as he faces the Royals at home. Valdez has made 23 starts this season and has a record of 13-6 with a 3.27 ERA. In his 23 appearances, he has turned in 13 quality starts and has a WHIP of 1.14. Valdez’s most recent outing came against the Orioles, where he took the loss, giving up three earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won three straight starts. One of those wins was a complete game. Valdez has been tough to hit this year, as opponents are batting .230 off him.
Yordan Alvarez has been on a tear of late, going 8/16 in his last four games with three homers and four RBIs. For the season, he is hitting .313 with 28 homers and 71 RBIs, which is 9th in the league. Alvarez’s 71 RBIs are 2nd on the team, as Yainer Diaz has driven in 72 runs while batting .297.
As a team, the Astros are averaging 4.6 runs per game and batting a collective .261, which is the 2nd best mark in the league. They also have the 10th best slugging percentage and OPS in the league. Houston comes into the game with the 9th best on-base percentage in the league.
Our prediction for today’s Royals vs. Astros matchup is to take the Astros on the money line at -157. We see this game ending with a final score of 6-5 in favor of the Astros.
Looking at some of the starting pitcher’s projections, Framber Valdez is predicted to finish with five strikeouts, and Seth Lugo is predicted to finish with four. We have Valdez finishing with a win, and Lugo is 11th in our rankings for starting pitchers to pick up a win.
Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Betting Tips
- Take the Astros on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Royals (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Houston Astros Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Kendall Graveman | Out | Shoulder |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Out | Forearm |
| Kyle Tucker | Out | Shin |
| Cristian Javier | Out | Elbow |
| Luis Garcia | Out | Elbow |
| Bennett Sousa | Out | Shoulder |
| José Urquidy | Out | Elbow |
| Penn Murfee | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Ortega | Out | Elbow |
| J.P. France | Out | Undisclosed |
Kansas City Royals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Will Smith | Out | Back |
| Michael Lorenzen | Out | Hamstring |
| Hunter Renfroe | Out | Hamstring |
| Hunter Harvey | Out | Back |
| Lucas Erceg | Questionable | Hand |
| Cole Ragans | Probable | Calf |
| Dan Altavilla | Out | Oblique |
| Josh Taylor | Out | Biceps |
| Kyle Wright | Out | Shoulder |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | Questionable | Undisclosed |
