Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Prediction & Betting Tips 6/14/2024

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Preview

Both the Tigers and Astros are sending a rookie pitcher to the mound on Friday, as Tarik Skubal is starting for the Tigers, and Hunter Brown is starting for the Astros. The money line odds have the Tigers at -108 compared to the Astros at -110, and the over/under line is currently 7.5 runs.

This AL matchup is set for 8:10 PM ET from Minute Maid Park in Houston, and the Tigers are 4th in the AL Central with a record of 33-35, while the Astros are 3rd in the AL West at 31-38.

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Houston Astros Trends and Key Stats

• 3-2 is the record of Tigers in their last five road games. They have also gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
• The Astros, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 2-3 (SU) and 2-3 record.
• In their previous ten games, Tigers have won 5-5 as favorites and 4-6 as underdogs.
• The Astros have a 5-5 record when favored, while their record as the underdog is 4-6.

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Heading into their last game vs. the Nationals, the Tigers closed out the series with a 7-2 win. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at -155. Offensively, the Tigers scored their seven runs on jsonly 10 hits and didn’t hit a home run.

Casey Mize put together a good start for the Tigers, going six innings and giving up just one earned run, and picking up the win. Detroit’s offense was carried by Justyn-Henry Malloy, who went 2/3 with a double, three RBIs, and a run scored. The Tigers also had three other players with two hits.

Detroit is 33-35 overall this season, and they are 4th in the AL Central, 11 games behind the Guardians for the division lead. So far, they have gone 10-9 in AL Central games. The Tigers are starting their series vs. the Astros on the road, and they are 17-16 on the road this year.

As the favorite, the Tigers have gone 17-15 this year, and they are 16-20 as the underdog. Detroit’s overall series record is 9-9-4, and they have dropped two straight series. Their two most recent series losses came at home.

The Tigers have been a solid run line bet on the road this season, going 18-15. They have an average run margin of +0.4 runs per game away from home, but their overall run line record is just 30-38. Detroit has been a better run line bet as the underdog, going 22-14, compared to just 8-24 as the favorite.

Today’s game between the Detroit Tigers and the Houston Astros has an over/under line of 7.5 runs. The Tigers have played 40 games with over/under lines higher than 7.5 runs, and their games have averaged a combined 8.6 runs per game. Overall, the Tigers are 39-27 on the over/under this season, and their games have had an average line of 8 runs. When the line has been set at 7.5 runs, the Tigers have gone over 12 times and under 8 times.

Tarik Skubal has been pitching well for the Tigers this season and comes into the game with a record of 8-1 and an ERA of 1.92. In his 13 starts, he has turned in 10 quality starts and is averaging 10.85 strikeouts per nine innings. Skubal’s most recent outing came vs. the Brewers, where he picked up the win, going 6 2/3 innings and giving up just one earned run. Looking back over his last three outings, he has given up just one earned run in each of them. The left-hander has been especially tough at home, coming in with a 5-0 record and 2.0 ERA compared to 3-1 with a 1.95 ERA on the road.

Heading into today’s game, the Tigers are 17th in the league in scoring, averaging 4.3 runs per game. This is the 18th best mark in the league. As a team, they are batting just .231, which is also 17th in the league. Detroit’s team on-base percentage of .298 is 22nd in the league. Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter are both tied for 2nd on the team with 8 homers, while Greene’s 30 RBIs are the best on the team.

Riley Greene is currently on a four-game hitting streak, but he is just 7/32 in his last eight games. During this stretch, he has two homers and seven RBIs. Matt Vierling and Kerry Carpenter are also near the top of the Tigers’ home run and RBI leaderboards.

Houston closed out their series vs. the Giants with a 5-3 loss. Heading into the game, the Astros were the slight favorite at +100 on the money line. Things started off well for the Astros, as they got on the board with a run in the 1st inning but gave up the lead right away as the Giants scored twice in the bottom of the first.

Framber Valdez got the start for the Astros and took the loss. He only lasted four innings, giving up five earned runs on eight hits. Offensively, the Astros scored their three runs on nine hits and only had one home run.

Houston is 3rd in the AL West, trailing the Mariners by eight games with an overall record of 31-38. They are 15-12 against other teams in the AL West. The Astros are hosting the Tigers today with an overall series record of 10-11-1, and they went 2-1 in their most recent series vs. the Giants.

At home, the Astros are 17-18 compared to 14-20 on the road. So far, they have really struggled as the favorite, going 24-30. As for their record as the underdog, they are 7-8 and 1-3 as the home underdog.

When it comes to betting the run line, the Astros have been a tough team to figure out. They have a run line record of 29-40 overall, including a mark of 15-20 at home. They have a scoring margin of +0.1 runs per game overall, but that number jumps to +0.7 runs per game at home. If you’ve been betting the run line on the Astros, you’ve likely been losing money, as they are just 8-7 as an underdog and 21-33 as a favorite.

When the Houston Astros play at home, the over/under line is typically set high, with an average of 9 runs per game. However, their games have actually averaged 8.8 runs per game this season. Their over/under record is 25-41, and when the line is set at 7.5 runs, they have gone 4-7. Overall, 82.6% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs.

Hunter Brown gets the start for the Astros today and will be looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up a run. In that start vs. the Angels, he went six innings and picked up the win. Looking at his overall numbers, Brown is 2-5 with a 5.58 ERA. Opponents are batting .254 off the right-hander this season. Brown has made 12 starts, and his ERA on the road is 24.42 compared to 4.57 at home. Per nine innings, he is averaging 4.26 walks compared to 9.83 strikeouts.

Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez have been swinging the bat well for the Astros of late, with Altuve going 9/23 in his last five games and Alvarez going 7/20. Over this stretch, Altuve has one homer and five RBIs, while Alvarez has two homers and four RBIs. Kyle Tucker is also having a strong season at the plate, as his 19 homers are the best mark on the team and 3rd in the league. Tucker’s 40 RBIs are also the best on the team and 12th in the MLB.

Overall, the Astros are 2nd in batting average and are the top team in the league in terms of avoiding strikeouts. As a team, they are 4th in home runs and are averaging 4.4 runs per game. At home, they are scoring 4.8 runs per contest, which is 7th in the league.

Our prediction for today’s Tigers vs. Astros matchup is to take the Astros on the money line at -110. We have the Astros winning this one by a score of 5-4, and with the payout for an Astros win on the money line, this is the route we recommend taking.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we do have Hunter Brown finishing with six strikeouts, which is higher than our projections for Tarik Skubal. However, our projections have Skubal finishing with eight strikeouts, and his strikeout upside is something you could look to target in the player prop market.

Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Betting Tips

• Take the Astros on the moneyline
• The Astros should also cover at +1.5
• Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over

Houston Astros Injury Report

Detroit Tigers Injury Report