Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians Preview
Thursday’s matchup between the Guardians and Astros is set for 8:10 PM from Minute Maid Park in Houston. Cleveland comes in with a record of 20-10 and will be sending Logan Allen to the mound vs. an Astros club that is 10-20 and starting Spencer Arrighetti.
The over/under line is at 9.5 runs, and the Astros are the betting favorite at -133. Looking at the money line odds for the Guardians, they are at +112. This American League matchup can be seen on TV on MLB Network.
Check out BetCoco for Houston Astros – Cleveland Guardians odds
Houston Astros Trends and Key Stats
- 2-3 is the record of Guardians in their last five road games. They have also gone 4-1 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Astros have a 2-3 (SU) record, along with a 2-3 record in their last five home contests.
- The Astros have a straight-up record of 4-6 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 3-7 record vs. the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Guardians have a straight-up record of 5-5 and a 7-3 record vs. the runline.
Cleveland picked up a 3-2 win over the Astros in the most recent game of this series. The Guardians had a two-run 5th inning and scored the game’s go-ahead run in the 10th. As for the Astros, they scored their only two runs in the 6th. Heading into the game, the Guardians were at +154 on the money line.
Triston McKenzie started for the Guardians and went seven innings while giving up two runs and striking out six. He picked up a win in the game, while Emmanuel Clase got the save. Justin Verlander put together a good outing for the Astros, going seven innings and giving up two earned runs.
Will Brennan, Steven Kwan, and David Fry each had two hits and an RBI for the Guardians’ offense. Kyle Tucker did the same for the Astros. Mauricio Dubon also had a two-hit game at the plate.
Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction
Cleveland is on the road today vs. the Astros, leading the AL Central by two games over the Royals. The Guardians have an overall record of 20-10 and are 4-1 against other teams in the AL Central. This year, they have been good as the road underdog, going 8-4 compared to 12-6 overall on the road.
The Guardians have been good in day games this year, going 10-3, and they are 8-4 at home. So far, they have been good in their role as the favorite, putting together an 11-5 record. Their overall series record is 7-2, and they are 6-4 over their last 10 games.
The Guardians have been a profitable team to bet on the run line this season, as they are 21-9 overall and 13-5 on the run line on the road. They have covered the run line in four straight games and are 12-2 as underdogs this season.
The Cleveland Guardians have played to an over/under record of 16-12 this season, with an average line of 8 runs per game. Their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game this season, and the over/under line for their game against the Houston Astros is set at 9.5 runs. The Guardians have played 29 games with lower lines than 9.5 runs, and their games have gone over the line in just one of the two games with a 9.5 run line this season.
Cleveland is sending left-hander Logan Allen to the mound today vs. the Astros. He has made six starts this year and has a record of 3-1 with an ERA of 5.46. Allen’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.40. In his last outing, he took the loss, going 4 2/3 innings vs. the Braves and giving up four earned runs. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Allen has made one quality start this year and is averaging 7.47 strikeouts per nine innings. Overall, he has allowed six homers and is averaging 3.16 walks per nine innings.
Steven Kwan has been on a tear for the Guardians, hitting .360 for the season, and he has gone 11/28 in his last seven games, including one home run. Kwan’s 11 RBIs is 4th on the team. Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor are the top power threats in the lineup, with Ramirez leading the team with five homers and Naylor right behind him at seven.
As a team, the Guardians are 5th in the league in scoring at 5.2 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.3 runs per contest. Overall, they are batting .248, which is 9th in the league.
Houston is hosting the Guardians today with an overall record of 10-20, which puts them 5th in the AL West. Currently, they trail the Mariners by 6.5 games in the division. So far, they have gone 4-3 in divisional matchups. The Astros are looking to pick up a win at home, as they are just 5-10 both at home and on the road this year.
The Astros have really struggled as the favorite this year, going 8-17 in those situations. As for how they have fared as the underdog, they are 2-3. So far, their overall series record is 3-5-1, and they are just 4-6 over their last 10 games.
The Astros have a run differential of -0.7 runs per game this season, and their run line record is 10-20. They have gone 5-10 against the run line at home and on the road. As the favorite, they are 7-18 vs. the run line, while as the underdog, they are 3-2. Their average run differential in wins is +5.2, while in losses, it is -3.7.
The Houston Astros have had a combined run average of 9.7 in their games this season, but their over/under record is just 9-19. Their average over/under line is 10 runs per game, but when the line is set at 9.5 runs, the under has hit in four of five games. Overall, 56.7% of their games have had lower over/under lines than today’s 9.5-run total.
Spencer Arrighetti is set to make his 4th start of the season for the Astros, and he’ll be taking on the Cleveland Guardians at home. Arrighetti has taken the loss in each of his first 3 starts, and he has yet to make it through 5 innings in a start this season. In his last outing, he gave up 4 runs over 3 2/3 innings, and he has given up 3 home runs on the year.
Heading into today’s game, the Astros are 3rd in the league in home runs and have the 3rd best team batting average in the league at .263. Jose Altuve and Kyle Tucker have been two of the team’s top power threats, with Altuve hitting seven homers and Tucker leading the team with eight. Altuve is batting .341 for the season, and Tucker isn’t far behind at .298. Tucker has gone deep three times in his last ten games while hitting .378 in that stretch.
Yordan Alvarez is also near the top of the Astros’ home run leaderboard, as he has gone deep seven times this season. However, he is batting just .254 for the year and has hit just .190 over his last ten games. Jeremy Pena has been a bright spot for the Astros of late, as he has gone 12/38 in his last ten games, including a home run.
Our prediction for this game is that the Astros will pick up a 6-5 win over the Guardians. With the payout for an Astros win sitting at -133, this is the bet we recommend making.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Spencer Arrighetti is projected to finish with five strikeouts, which is good for fifth among today’s starters. As for Logan Allen, he is projected to finish with the fewest strikeouts among today’s starters.
Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Tips
- Take the Astros on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Guardians (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Houston Astros Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Kendall Graveman | Out | Shoulder |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Out | Arm |
| Cristian Javier | Out | Neck |
| Luis Garcia | Out | Elbow |
| Chas McCormick | Out | Hamstring |
| Bennett Sousa | Out | Shoulder |
| Grae Kessinger | Out | Shoulder |
| José Urquidy | Out | Forearm |
| Penn Murfee | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Ortega | Out | Elbow |
Cleveland Guardians Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Sam Hentges | Out | Finger |
| Shane Bieber | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Stephan | Out | Elbow |
| James Karinchak | Out | Shoulder |
| Eli Morgan | Out | Shoulder |
| Angel Martínez | Out | Hand |
| Gavin Williams | Out | Elbow |
