Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles Preview
First pitch for Sunday’s Orioles vs. Astros matchup is set for 2:10 PM ET from Minute Maid Park in Houston. The Orioles are 49-27 this season and they are 2nd in the AL East, while the Astros are 2nd in the AL West with an overall record of 37-40.
Albert Suarez is starting for the Orioles, and they are the slight money line underdog (+105). The Astros will be looking to extend their four-game winning streak with Framber Valdez on the mound. Valdez and the Astros are favored at -125, and the over/under line is sitting at 8.5 runs.
Check out BetCoco for Houston Astros – Baltimore Orioles odds
Houston Astros Trends and Key Stats
- The Orioles are 2-3 across their last five road games. They have gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- On the other side, the Astros have gone 3-2 (SU) and 3-2 in their previous five home contests.
- Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Astros have won 6-4 straight-up, and have a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
- Looking at the Orioles’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 6-4 straight-up and 7-3 vs. the runline.
Houston cruised to an easy 5-1 win over the Orioles in the most recent game of this series. The Astros had a huge 3rd inning, scoring all five of their runs. As for the Orioles, they scored their only run in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Astros were at +125 on the money line.
Ronel Blanco started for the Astros and picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with four strikeouts but issued three walks. On the other side, Corbin Burnes got the start for the Orioles and took the loss, giving up four earned runs in seven innings of work.
Chas McCormick was the difference for the Astros’ offense, as he went 3/3 with two homers and five RBIs. Yordan Alvarez also had a two-hit game for Houston. Jordan Westburg hit the game’s only other home run for the Orioles, going 1/4.
Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction
The Orioles are 49-27 overall this season, and they are 1.5 games behind the Yankees for the AL East lead. Baltimore has gone 19-7 against other teams in the AL East. The Orioles have dropped two straight games, and this comes after winning four in a row.
So far, the Orioles have been really good at home, going 25-14. On the road, they are 24-13 this season. Baltimore has been the underdog in two straight games, and they are 10-5 as the underdog overall. As for their record as the favorite, the Orioles are 39-22 this year.
When the Orioles are on the road, they have been a strong bet against the run line, going 24-13. Their average run margin is +1.6 runs per game, and they have a run line record of 46-30 overall. They have been especially good against the run line as the underdog, going 12-3.
Today’s over/under line for the Baltimore Orioles’ game against the Houston Astros is set at 8.5 runs. The Orioles have a combined run average of 9.0 runs per game this season and their over/under record is 38-28. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 14-8. So far this season, 22.4% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs.
Right-hander Albert Suárez gets the start for the Orioles today as he faces the Astros on the road. He has made eight starts this year and has a record of 3-1 with a 2.05 ERA. Suárez’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.20. In his last outing, he took the loss, going 3 2/3 innings and giving up three earned runs on six hits. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Opponents are batting .223 this season off Suárez. Per nine innings, he is averaging 7.45 strikeouts and 3.54 walks.
Not only do the Orioles lead the league in home runs this season, but they also have the league’s top offense, averaging 5.3 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.6 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .254 (5th) and have the league’s best slugging percentage and isolated power numbers.
Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson have been two of the Orioles’ top power threats this season. Rutschman is batting .303 with 14 homers, while Henderson is hitting .281 and is 2nd in the league with 24 home runs. Anthony Santander is also near the top of the league in home runs, but he is batting just .234 for the season. However, he has gone 11/38 with six homers over his last nine games.
Houston is currently 37-40 overall and trails the Mariners by seven games in the AL West. The Astros have been playing well of late, winning four straight games, and they are 7-3 across their last ten. In the AL West, they lead the Rangers by a half-game.
At home, the Astros have gone 21-19 this year and are 16-21 on the road. As the favorite, the Astros are 28-32 this year and 9-8 as the underdog. Houston has won two straight games as the favorite, and their overall series record is 12-11-1. The Astros have won two straight series and have an overall series record of 12-11-1 this year.
When it comes to the run line, the Astros have been a better bet at home this season, going 19-21 compared to 16-21 on the road. They have covered the run line in three straight home games and are 25-35 overall as the favorite.
The Houston Astros are playing at home against the Baltimore Orioles today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The combined run average for Astros games this season is 8.8 runs, and their over/under record is 27-47. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 7-13. So far this season, 41.6% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8.5 runs.
Framber Valdez will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the White Sox, as he gets the start for the Astros today. In that June 18th start, he took the loss, going 6 innings and giving up 2 earned runs. Looking back over his last three starts, Valdez has given up at least one homer in each outing. Valdez has a record of 5-5 this season and an ERA of 3.91. Opponents are batting .244 off Valdez this season. So far, he has made seven quality starts and has a WHIP of 1.21.
Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker have been the Astros’ top power threats this season, with Altuve and Alvarez each having 11 homers and Tucker leading the team with 19 home runs. Alvarez is also leading the team in RBIs, with 41, which is the best mark on the team. Tucker is right behind him at 40 RBIs. Over his last eight games, Alvarez has gone 9/29 with three homers. Alex Bregman has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 13/42 in his last 10 games.
As a team, the Astros are 2nd in batting average and are averaging 4.5 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are 4th in home runs and have the league’s best team strikeout rate.
Our prediction for this Orioles vs. Astros matchup is to take the Astros on the money line at -125. We actually have the Astros winning this one by a score of 6-5, which means there is some value in taking the over, as the line is sitting at 8.5 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Framber Valdez is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which is good for seventh among starters. As for Albert Suarez, he is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which is good for eighth.
Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips
- Take the Astros on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Orioles (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Houston Astros Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander | Out | Neck |
| Kendall Graveman | Out | Shoulder |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Out | Forearm |
| Victor Caratini | Out | Hip Flexor |
| Kyle Tucker | Out | Shin |
| Cristian Javier | Out | Elbow |
| Luis Garcia | Out | Elbow |
| Bennett Sousa | Out | Shoulder |
| José Urquidy | Out | Elbow |
| Penn Murfee | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Ortega | Out | Elbow |
| Jake Bloss | Out | Shoulder |
Baltimore Orioles Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Coulombe | Out | Elbow |
| Dean Kremer | Out | Triceps |
| Tyler Wells | Out | Elbow |
| John Means | Out | Elbow |
| Kyle Bradish | Out | Elbow |
| Alexis Cruz | Out | Personal |
| Christopher Ramirez | Out | Personal |
| Isaiah Kearns | Out | Personal |
| Félix Bautista | Out | Elbow |
