Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks Preview
At 4:10 PM ET, the Diamondbacks and Astros square off in an interleague matchup. This one is being played at Minute Maid Park in Houston and has the Astros as heavy favorites on the money line (-165). The Diamondbacks are +141 on the money line, and their over/under line is currently at 8 runs.
Arizona will be looking to end a two-game losing streak, as they are 79-63 overall and 3rd in the NL West. The Astros are 1st in the AL West with a record of 76-65.
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Houston Astros vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Trends and Key Stats
- The Diamondbacks are 3-2 across their last five road games. They have gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
- In the Astros’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 1-4 (SU) with 1-4 against the spread.
- As the favorite, the Astros are 7-3 over their last ten games, including going 6-4 vs. the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Diamondbacks have a straight-up record of 4-6 and a 6-4 record vs. the runline.
Houston cruised to an easy 8-0 win over the Diamondbacks in the most recent game of this series. The Astros had a huge 2nd inning, scoring seven of their eight runs. As for the Diamondbacks, they had their best chance to score in the 5th, but left the bases loaded.
Framber Valdez only went seven innings for the Astros but didn’t give up a run and picked up the win. He finished the game with seven strikeouts but issued three walks. On the other side, Brandon Pfaadt got the start for Arizona and took the loss, giving up four earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings of work.
Yordan Alvarez hit the game’s only two home runs while going 2/4 with six RBIs. Jose Altuve also had a three-hit game and scored twice for Houston’s offense.
Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction
Arizona is on the road today vs. the Astros, and they are looking to bounce back from back-to-back losses. The Diamondbacks are 79-63 overall, putting them 3rd in the NL West. Currently, they trail the Dodgers by 5.5 games in the division standings.
At home, the Diamondbacks are 39-31 this year, and they are 40-32 on the road. As the underdog, Arizona has gone 34-37 this year, and they are 45-26 as the favorite. Arizona’s overall series record is 25-16-4, and they have won three straight series on the road.
Arizona has been a strong bet on the run line overall this season, going 74-68, but they have been even better on the road, where they are 42-30. Their run line record at home is just 32-38. The Diamondbacks have an average run margin of 0.6 runs per game this season, and their average run margin in winning games is 4.1 runs per game.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are on the road today against the Houston Astros. The over/under line for the game is set at 8 runs. The Diamondbacks have played in 100 games this season with over/under lines set higher than 8 runs, which accounts for 70.4% of their games. Their combined run average for the season is 10.2 runs per game, and their over/under record is 81-54 overall. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, their record is 10-5-2.
Eduardo Rodriguez will be on the mound for the Diamondbacks in their road matchup with the Astros. Rodriguez has a win and a loss in his first two starts of the season, and in his most recent outing, he took the loss against the Dodgers. He went 4 innings, giving up 3 runs on 2 homers.
Arizona has been the best offensive team in the league this season, averaging 5.4 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.6 runs per contest. The Diamondbacks are also near the top of the league in a number of other offensive categories, including team batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.
Over the past five games, Eugenio Suarez has gone 6/17 with two homers and six runs scored. For the season, he is 2nd on the team with 24 homers and leads the team with 87 RBIs. Ketel Marte has also been a big run producer for the Diamondbacks, as he has 81 RBIs to go along with his 30 homers, which is the best mark on the team and 12th in the league.
The Astros are leading the AL West by 4.5 games over the Mariners, and they are 76-65 overall. So far, they have gone 21-18 in divisional games. Houston has won five straight games at home, and they are 40-29 at home this season.
As the favorite, the Astros have gone 58-46 this year and 37-24 as the favorite at home. They are also just above .500 at 36-36 on the road this year. Heading into today’s game, the Astros took the series lead vs. the Diamondbacks and have an overall series record of 24-19-2. Over their last ten games, the Astros are 6-4.
When the Astros win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.8 runs per game. They’re also a good bet on the run line when they’re the underdog, going 25-12 against the run line in those games. Overall, they’re 72-69 against the run line this season, including a 33-36 mark at home.
Today’s over/under line for the Houston Astros game against the Arizona Diamondbacks is set at 8 runs. The combined run average for Astros games this season is 8.5 runs, and their overall over/under record is 56-80. On average, the over/under line for Astros games is set at 9 runs, and their record when the line is set at 8 runs is 11-13-2. In 60.3% of their games this season, the over/under line has been set higher than 8 runs.
Yusei Kikuchi gets the start for the Astros today and will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in seven innings of work. In that outing vs. the Royals, he picked up the win and finished with 12 strikeouts. Kikuchi has made 28 starts this season and has a record of 7-9 with an ERA of 4.24. Looking at his home/road splits, he has a record of 3-7 at home with a 4.58 ERA compared to 4-2 on the road with a 5.5 ERA. For the year, he has allowed 21 homers and is averaging 10.57 strikeouts per nine innings.
Yordan Alvarez has been tearing the cover off the ball for the Astros this season, as he comes into the game with a league-leading 79 RBIs and is also 10th in the league with 32 home runs. Alvarez is also batting a solid .310 for the season. Over his last five games, he has four homers and eight RBIs while going 5/19. Jose Altuve is also swinging a good bat for Houston, batting .297 for the season and has gone deep 18 times.
As a team, the Astros are averaging 4.6 runs per game and are 3rd in the league in team batting average at .260. Overall, they are 10th in home runs and have the 6th best on-base percentage in the league. Houston is also one of the best teams in the league at avoiding strikeouts.
Our predicted score for this game is a 6-5 win for the Astros, which would make taking them on the money line a good option. However, with a payout of -165, we see more value in taking the over, as the line is currently sitting at 8 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Eduardo Rodriguez is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which is higher than Yusei Kikuchi, who we have finishing with seven. However, we like Kikuchi to pick up the win more than Rodriguez, as he has the Astros finishing with the fifth most hits in the league today.
Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips
- Take the Astros on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Diamondbacks (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Houston Astros Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Kendall Graveman | Out | Shoulder |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Out | Forearm |
| Mauricio Dubón | Questionable | Thumb |
| Cristian Javier | Out | Elbow |
| Luis Garcia | Out | Elbow |
| Bennett Sousa | Out | Shoulder |
| José Urquidy | Out | Elbow |
| Penn Murfee | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Ortega | Out | Elbow |
| J.P. France | Out | Undisclosed |
Arizona Diamondbacks Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | Out | Calf |
| Jose Herrera | Questionable | Head |
| Gabriel Moreno | Out | Groin |
| Kyle Nelson | Out | Shoulder |
| Drey Jameson | Out | Elbow |
| Bryce Jarvis | Out | Elbow |
| Andrew Saalfrank | Out | Suspension |
