Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners Preview
Thursday’s matchup between the Guardians vs Mariners is set to get started at 1:10 PM ET from Progressive Field in Cleveland. The Guardians are 1st in the AL Central with a record of 45-26, while the Mariners are 1st in the AL West at 44-32.
MLB Network is carrying the TV rights for Thursday’s game, and the money line odds have the Mariners as the slight favorite. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs, and today’s starting pitching matchup is Luis Castillo for the Mariners and Logan Allen for the Guardians.
Check out BetCoco for Cleveland Guardians – Seattle Mariners odds
Cleveland Guardians Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Mariners are 2-3. This includes going 2-3 vs. the runline.
- In the Guardians’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 2-3 (SU) with 3-2 against the spread.
- In their previous ten games, the Mariners have recorded a 7-3 record as the favorite, while they have a 6-4 record as the underdog.
- The Guardians have a 5-5 record when favored, while their record as the underdog is 6-4.
Cleveland cruised to an easy 8-0 win over the Mariners in the most recent game of this series. The Guardians had a huge 5th inning, scoring three of their eight runs. As for the Mariners, they had their best chance to score in the 6th, but could only muster one run.
Tanner Bibee started for the Guardians and picked up the win, going six innings and not giving up a run. He finished the game with 12 strikeouts but issued one walk. On the other side, Bryan Woo got the start for the Mariners and took the loss, giving up three earned runs in four innings of work.
Josh Naylor was the offensive star for the Guardians, going 3/4 with two homers and four RBIs. Both Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez each drove in two for Cleveland’s offense.
Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners Prediction
Seattle is 44-32 overall and leads the AL West by nine games over the Astros. So far, they have been excellent against other teams in their division, putting together a record of 17-5. The Mariners have really been playing well lately, having won two straight and eight of their last 10.
At home, the Mariners have gone 27-12 this season, and they have been just above .500 on the road at 17-20. As the favorite, the Mariners are 28-18 this year and 16-14 as the underdog. Seattle’s overall series record is 13-8-2, and they have won two straight series.
Seattle has been a solid bet against the run line this season, going 37-39 overall. They have been particularly good at home, going 21-18 against the run line. The Mariners have a run differential of +0.2 runs per game, and their average run differential in wins is +2.9 runs per game. They have covered the run line in two straight games and are 17-13 against the run line as an underdog.
Seattle is on the road in Cleveland today, where the over/under line is set at 8 runs. The Mariners have a combined run average of 7.6 runs per game this season. They have gone over the total in 30 of their 73 games this season and are 5-10-1 when the line is set at 8 runs. The over has hit in two straight games for Seattle.
Luis Castillo will be looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win vs. the Rangers. In that June 14th outing, he went 6 innings and gave up 2 earned runs. Looking at his overall numbers, Castillo has made 15 starts, and opponents are batting .229 this season. His ERA is 3.33, and he has a record of 6-7. So far, he has turned in 10 quality starts and is averaging 9.27 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, Castillo has allowed 11 homers and is averaging just 2.42 walks per nine innings.
Julio Rodriguez has been one of the Mariners’ most consistent hitters this season, batting .264 with seven home runs. He has also gone 10/40 in his last 10 games, with two homers and five RBIs. Cal Raleigh is the team’s leading home run hitter, but he is batting just .203 for the season. Luke Raley also has eight homers but is batting a much better .256.
Seattle’s offense comes into the game averaging just 3.9 runs per game, which is 25th in the league. They have also been one of the worst teams in terms of striking out, averaging 10 per game. Overall, they are batting just .220 and have the league’s worst team on-base percentage.
Cleveland is 45-26 overall this season, putting them in 1st place in the AL Central. So far, they have a 5.5-game lead on the Twins. The Guardians are 11-6 against other teams in the AL Central. At home, they are 22-9 this year and 23-17 on the road.
The Guardians have been good as the favorite this year, going 31-15, and they are 14-11 as the underdog. Cleveland has won two straight series and has an overall series record of 15-6-2 this year. Their overall record in their last ten games is 5-5.
When the Cleveland Guardians win, they do so by an average of 3.7 runs per game, and they are 40-31 against the run line overall. They are 17-14 against the run line at home and 23-17 on the road. As the underdog, they are 18-7 against the run line, compared to 22-24 as the favorite.
The Cleveland Guardians have a combined run average of 8.7 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 34-32. The over/under line for today’s game against the Seattle Mariners is set at 8 runs. When the line is set at 8 runs, the Guardians’ over/under record is 7-7-2. The over has hit in three straight games for Cleveland.
Cleveland is sending Logan Allen to the mound today vs. the Mariners, and he will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in five innings of work. In that outing vs. the Blue Jays, he only gave up three hits and issued three walks. Looking back at his overall numbers, Allen has made 14 starts, and opponents are batting .280 this year. Allen’s ERA is 5.30, and he has a record of 7-3. One of his four quality starts came at home, where he is 2-0 with a 9.93 ERA.
Heading into today’s game, the Guardians offense is 5th in the league at 5 runs per contest. They have been even better at home, also averaging 5 runs per game. As a team, the Guardians are batting .243, which is 11th in the league, and are near the top of the league in both on-base percentage and slugging. The team’s top two home run hitters are Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor, who have 18 and 19 homers, respectively.
Over the team’s last seven games, Josh Naylor has gone 10/26 with three homers and seven RBIs. Steven Kwan has also been hot of late, going 16/30 in his last seven games. Kwan is also on a 13-game hitting streak.
Our prediction for this Mariners vs. Guardians matchup is to take the Guardians on the money line, with the payout sitting at -109. Offensively, we have the Guardians finishing with nine hits compared to the Mariners with eight.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Luis Castillo going five innings and finishing with five strikeouts. As for Logan Allen, he is projected to go just three innings and finish with five strikeouts.
If you’re looking for a final score prediction, we have this one ending with a 5-4 win for the Guardians.
Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners Betting Tips
- Take the Guardians on the moneyline
- The Guardians should also cover at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Cleveland Guardians Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Stephan | Out | Elbow |
| James Karinchak | Out | Shoulder |
| Eli Morgan | Out | Elbow |
| Nick Sandlin | Out | Back |
| Gavin Williams | Out | Elbow |
Seattle Mariners Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Polanco | Out | Hamstring |
| Gabe Speier | Out | Shoulder |
| Sam Haggerty | Out | Achilles |
| Gregory Santos | Out | Lat |
| Jackson Kowar | Out | Elbow |
| Matt Brash | Out | Elbow |
