Cleveland Guardians vs San Diego Padres Preview
At 7:10 PM ET, the Padres and Guardians will square off in an interleague matchup. This one is being played at Progressive Field in Cleveland, and the Guardians are the favorites on the money line (-139). The money line odds for a Padres win are sitting at +118, and their record is 50-49, which has them 3rd in the NL West. Cleveland is 1st in the AL Central with a record of 58-37.
Friday’s pitching matchup features Matt Waldron for the Padres and Tanner Bibee for the Guardians. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs, and this game can be seen on APLTV.
Check out BetCoco for Cleveland Guardians – San Diego Padres odds
Cleveland Guardians Trends and Key Stats
- The Padres are 3-2 across their last five road games. They have gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
- On the other side, the Guardians have gone 1-4 (SU) and 1-4 in their previous five home contests.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Guardians have a record of 6-4 straight-up, and have gone 2-8 against the runline.
- Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Padres have a 7-3 straight-up record and a 7-3 record vs. the runline.
Cleveland Guardians vs San Diego Padres Prediction
Led by a big game by Luis Campusano at the plate, the Padres are coming off a 6-3 loss to the Braves. Campusano went 1/1 with a homer and two RBIs. The Padres really needed a big game from him, as they were the +143 underdog at home going into this matchup.
Randy Vasquez got the start for the Padres and took the loss. He only lasted five innings, giving up four runs on four hits. The Padres also issued three walks and hit a batter. San Diego’s bullpen allowed another two runs in the 8th to close things out.
San Diego is 50-49 overall this season, and they are seven games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. The Padres are 3rd in the division and have gone 15-17 in divisional games this year. They lost two of three in their series vs. the Braves.
At home, the Padres are 26-28 and have gone 24-21 on the road. San Diego has dropped two straight games as the underdog, and their overall record as the underdog is 21-20. As the favorite, the Padres are an even 29-29 this year. So far, they have an overall series record of 17-13-3.
San Diego is 50-49 against the run line this season, including a 31-14 mark on the road. The Padres have covered the run line in two straight games and are 28-13 against the run line as an underdog. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.7, while it’s -3.5 in losses.
The San Diego Padres are on the road today against the Cleveland Guardians, and the over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average for Padres games this season is 8.9 runs per game, and their over/under record for the season is 53-45. When the over/under line for a Padres game is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 16-16. So far this season, 58.6% of Padres games have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs.
Right-hander Matt Waldron gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Guardians on the road. Waldron has made 19 starts this season and has a record of 5-8 with a 3.71 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, opponents are batting .225 this season, and he has a WHIP of 1.17. Waldron’s last outing came on July 12th, where he took the loss, giving up four earned runs in seven innings of work. Before that, he had turned in three straight solid outings, giving up two earned runs in each.
Heading into today’s game, the Padres are 2nd in the league in batting average, hitting a combined .261. This has helped them to be one of the top-scoring offenses in the league, averaging 4.5 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.7 runs per contest. The Padres are also the top strikeout team in the league, averaging just 6 strikeouts per game.
Jurickson Profar and Fernando Tatis Jr. are tied for the team lead in home runs, with 14 apiece. Profar’s 59 RBIs are the best mark in the league, and he is also 11th in the league in runs scored. Profar has been hot of late, going 7/22 in his last seven games. Manny Machado is also on a three-game hitting streak but has hit just .231 in his last seven games.
Cleveland closed out their series vs. the Rays with a 2-0 loss. The Guardians were the +111 underdog on the money line going into this matchup. Things started off well for the Guardians, as Ben Lively struck out the side in the first inning. However, the Rays got to Lively for two runs in the 3rd, and Cleveland’s offense didn’t score a run.
Angel Martinez was the Guardians’starters, going 2/4 with two singles. Cleveland’s offense also had three other singles but didn’t score a run. The Guardians had a chance to tie things up in the 6th, but Ben Lively got the loss out of the bullpen.
Cleveland is 58-37 overall this season, putting them 1st in the AL Central, leading the Twins by 4.5 games. The Guardians will host the Padres today with an overall division record of 15-13. They have won two straight games at home and are 30-11 at home this season.
As the favorite, the Guardians have gone 42-20 this year and 27-10 as the favorite at home. They are also 16-17 as the underdog. Cleveland’s series record is 20-9-2 this year, but they dropped their most recent series vs. the Rays. In all, the Guardians are 4-6 across their last 10 games.
When betting the run line on the Cleveland Guardians, it’s important to note that they have a positive run differential on the season at +0.9 runs per game. They have a winning run line record overall at 48-47, but they have been better on the road, where they are 27-27 compared to 21-20 at home. They have been a better bet as an underdog, going 20-13 against the run line, compared to 28-34 as the favorite. In their wins, they are outscoring opponents by an average of 3.4 runs per game, while in losses, they are being outscored by an average of 3.0 runs per game.
Today’s over/under line of 7.5 runs for the Cleveland Guardians’ game against the San Diego Padres is lower than their season average of 8.7 combined runs per game. The Guardians have gone over the line in 15 of 27 games with a 7.5 run line this season, and their games have gone over the line in 66.3% of their games overall. Their last three games have gone under the total.
Cleveland is sending right-hander Tanner Bibee to the mound today vs. the Padres. He has made 19 starts this year and has a record of 7-4 with a 3.77 ERA. Bibee’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.12. In his 19 appearances, he has turned in seven quality starts and is averaging 10.54 strikeouts per nine innings. Overall, Bibee has 123 strikeouts, and he most recently faced the Tigers, where he gave up four earned runs in seven innings of work. He took the loss in that outing. Before that, he had won two straight starts.
Heading into today’s game, the Guardians are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 9th in the league. At home, they have been even better, putting up 5.1 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .243, which is 11th in the MLB, and have the 10th most home runs in the league. Over their last eight games, both Angel Martinez and Bo Naylor have two homers apiece, with Martinez batting .250 and Naylor at .235.
José Ramírez and Josh Naylor have been the Guardians’ top power hitters this season, with Ramirez’s 77 RBIs being 2nd in the league, and Naylor’s 70 RBIs coming in at 3rd. Ramirez also has a team-high 23 homers and is batting .271. Naylor is hitting .246 for the season.
Our predicted final score for this one is 6-5 in favor of the Guardians, and with them on the money line at -139, we see this as a good payout. Offensively, we have the Guardians finishing with nine hits compared to the Padres with nine.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Tanner Bibee is projected to finish with six strikeouts compared to Matt Waldron with five. Bibee is also projected to finish with fewer earned runs than Waldron.
Some other offensive projections we have are the Guardians finishing with the sixth most home runs on the day, while the Padres are down in 17th. As for the Padres, they are projected to finish with the fewest strikeouts on the day.
Cleveland Guardians vs San Diego Padres Betting Tips
- Take the Guardians on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Padres (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Cleveland Guardians Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Boyd | Out | Elbow |
| Sam Hentges | Out | Shoulder |
| Shane Bieber | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Stephan | Out | Elbow |
| James Karinchak | Out | Shoulder |
San Diego Padres Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | Out | Personal |
| Joe Musgrove | Out | Elbow |
| Jay Groome | Out | Suspension |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Out | Tricep |
| Wandy Peralta | Out | Groin |
| Luis Patiño | Out | Elbow |
| Tom Cosgrove | Out | Elbow |
