Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
There appears to be a chance for light rain in Cleveland on Saturday, where the Guardians and Pirates face off at Progressive Field. First pitch is set for 6:10 PM ET. SN PT will be televising this interleague matchup, and the Guardians are the heavy favorites on the money line (-165).
The over/under line is currently at 8.5 runs, and the Pirates will be looking to end a four-game losing streak. They are 5th in the NL Central, while the Guardians are 1st in the AL Central, with their overall record being 77-58.
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Cleveland Guardians vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Trends and Key Stats
- The Pirates are 1-4 across their last five road games. They have gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
- On the other side, the Guardians have gone 1-4 (SU) and 2-3 in their previous five home contests.
- Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Guardians have won 6-4 straight-up, and have a 5-5 record vs. the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Pirates have won 3-7 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 5-5 against the runline.
Cleveland picked up a 10-8 win over the Pirates in the most recent game of this series. The Guardians had a two-run lead going into the 9th inning, and the Pirates could only muster one run in the final frame. Heading into the game, the Guardians were favored at -151 on the money line.
Pittsburgh wasted a good outing from Bailey Falter, as he gave up just two earned runs in four innings of work for the Pirates. Carmen Mlodzinski took the loss. Pedro Avila got the win out of the bullpen for the Guardians as Ben Lively went just 4 1/3 innings.
Offensively, the Guardians were led by a big game from Andres Gimenez, who went 3/5 with a home run. He scored twice and drove in three runs. Jose Ramirez also had a two-hit game and drove in two runs.
Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
Pittsburgh is 62-72 overall and trail the Brewers in the NL Central by 16.5 games. The Pirates have dropped four straight games and are losing the series vs. the Guardians 0-1. So far, they have gone 20-19 in divisional games.
At home, the Pirates are 32-36 this season and 30-36 on the road. As the underdog, the Pirates are 35-48 this season, and they are 27-24 when favored. Pittsburgh has an overall series record of 18-20-5 this year.
When the Pirates are favored, they have been a poor bet against the run line, going just 19-32 on the season. However, when they are the underdog, they have been a solid bet, going 55-28. Their average run differential in their wins is +3.2, while in their losses, it is -3.5.
The Pirates will be on the road today against the Guardians, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The combined run average for Pittsburgh’s games this season is 8.8 runs per game, and their over/under record is at .500 with a mark of 66-66. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, the Pirates have gone over that total in 28 of 48 games, and they have hit the over in four straight games.
Pittsburgh is sending Luis L. Ortiz to the mound today vs. the Guardians, and he comes in with a record of 5-4 and ERA of 3.36. So far this year, he has made 10 starts, 16 of which have come on the road. Ortiz has a record of 3-3 on the road with an ERA of 3.66. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, going six innings and not giving up a run vs. the Reds. Before that, he had lost three straight starts. Ortiz has given up at least one homer in each of his last three outings.
Heading into today’s game, the Pirates are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 19th in the league. They are also just 20th in home runs and have a team batting average of just .237. However, they do have three hitters with at least 19 homers, led by Bryan Reynolds, who has gone deep 21 times this season. Reynolds is also batting .284 for the season and is currently on a five-game hitting streak.
Over his last six games, Reynolds is 8/24 with two homers and seven runs scored. O’Neil Cruz has also been swinging a hot bat for the Pirates, going 12/26 in his last six games with five RBIs. Bryan De La Cruz is 2nd on the team with 19 homers but is batting just .242 for the season.
Cleveland is hosting the Pirates today with an overall record of 77-58, which has them leading the AL Central by 2.5 games over the Royals. The Guardians have gone 22-20 in divisional games this year and have won two straight games overall. Their win streak came in the first game of this series vs. the Pirates.
At home, the Guardians are 42-24 this year and have gone 35-34 on the road. Cleveland has been good as the favorite this year, putting up a mark of 54-29. As for their record as the underdog, they are 23-29 this year. The Guardians have an overall series record of 24-14-5 this year.
The Guardians have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 67-68 overall. They have been slightly better at home, going 32-34, and their average run margin is +0.5 runs per game. They have won their last two games on the run line and are currently favored to win their third in a row.
The Cleveland Guardians are at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates today, and the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. The Guardians have had an average combined run total of 8.6 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 65-61. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 20-16. Overall, 20.0% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs or higher, and their current over streak is at 2 games.
Matthew Boyd is getting the start for the Guardians today, and he has been solid through his first two starts of the season. He picked up a win in his last outing, going 6 innings and giving up just 1 run on 3 hits. Boyd has 10 strikeouts through his first two starts.
Jose Ramirez has been a big run producer for the Guardians this season, as he is 2nd in the league with 104 RBIs and is also 5th in the league with 33 homers. Ramirez is batting .276 for the season and has gone 10/32 in his last nine games. Josh Naylor is also near the top of the league in RBIs, as his 98 runs batted in is good for 3rd in the MLB. Naylor is 2nd on the team with 28 homers.
Over their last seven games, Jhonkensy Noel has gone deep three times while batting .280. As a team, the Guardians are 12th in the league in scoring at 4.6 runs per game. They have been a better offensive team at home, averaging 5 runs per game.
Our predicted final score for this one is 5-4 in favor of the Guardians. However, we are actually recommending taking the over, as the line is currently sitting at 8.5 runs, and we have this one finishing with a combined nine runs.
Looking at some potential player props, a couple of strikeout predictions are Matthew Boyd finishing with six K’s and Luis L. Ortiz with just four. If you’re looking for a win, we have Boyd as the better option, with him being the 19th best starter to pick up a win compared to Ortiz at 11th.
Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips
- Take the Guardians on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Pirates (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Cleveland Guardians Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco | Out | Hip |
| Alex Cobb | Out | Finger |
| Sam Hentges | Out | Shoulder |
| Josh Naylor | Questionable | Ankle |
| Shane Bieber | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Stephan | Out | Elbow |
| James Karinchak | Out | Shoulder |
Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Johan Oviedo | Out | Elbow |
| Marco Gonzales | Out | Forearm |
| Ke’Bryan Hayes | Out | Back |
| Ben Heller | Out | Shoulder |
| Daulton Jefferies | Out | Elbow |
| Ryan Borucki | Out | Triceps |
| Joey Bart | Out | Hamstring |
| Dauri Moreta | Out | Elbow |
| Hunter Stratton | Out | Knee |
| Colin Holderman | Out | Wrist |
| Endy Rodríguez | Out | Elbow |
