Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets Preview
There are a few interleague matchups on Wednesday’s MLB slate, including the Mets vs. Guardians, with first pitch from Progressive Field being set for 1:10 PM ET. Jose Quintana will go for the Mets, and he is facing a Guardians team that is 32-17 and on a five-game winning streak. Cleveland is the home favorite on the money line, with the odds sitting at -131.
The over/under line for this one is currently at 9 runs, and the game can be seen on MLBN. The Mets are +110 on the money line, and they are 21-27 this season, which has them 4th in the NL East. Triston McKenzie will be on the mound for the Guardians.
Check out BetCoco for Cleveland Guardians – New York Mets odds
Cleveland Guardians Trends and Key Stats
- The Mets are 1-4 across their last five road games. They have gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- On the other side, the Guardians have gone 3-2 (SU) and 3-2 in their previous five home contests.
- Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Guardians have won 6-4 straight-up, and have a 3-7 record vs. the runline.
- The Mets have a 3-7 straight-up record and a 5-5 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.
Cleveland picked up a 7-6 win over the Mets in the most recent game of this series. New York had a late rally, scoring two runs in the 8th and another two in the 9th, but Emmanuel Clase closed things out for the Guardians. Offensively, the Mets actually outhit the Guardians in the game 11 to 7.
Xzavion Curry got the start for Cleveland, going just 4 1/3 innings while giving up two runs and striking out two. He did not factor in the decision as Nick Sandlin got the win out of the bullpen. Adrian Houser had a rough outing for the Mets, taking the loss after going five innings and giving up six runs.
Jose Ramirez and David Fry each homered for the Guardians, while Jeff McNeil went deep for the Mets. Ramirez finished the game with three RBIs and three runs scored.
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets Prediction
New York is 21-27 overall and trails the Phillies by 13.5 games in the NL East. The Mets have dropped two straight games and are losing their series with the Guardians 0-2. So far, they are just 5-8 in divisional games this year.
At home, the Mets are 10-14 compared to an 11-13 mark on the road. New York has dropped seven of their last eight games as the underdog and are 9-15 overall in that role. As the favorite, the Mets are an even 12-12 this year, and their overall series record is 6-8-2.
On the road this season, the Mets have been a solid bet against the run line, going 14-10. They have a negative run differential both at home (-0.4) and on the road (-0.2), but their run line record at home is just 8-16. They have been a better bet against the run line as the underdog, going 13-11, compared to 9-15 as the favorite.
Today’s over/under line is set at 9 runs as the Mets continue their road trip against the Guardians. The Mets have a combined run average of 8.9 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 25-23. The average over/under line for their games this season is 8 runs, and when the line has been set at 9 runs, their record is 2-2. Only 10.4% of their games have had over/under lines set at 9 runs or higher, with 81.2% of their games having lines set at 8 runs or lower.
Jose Quintana gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Guardians on the road. So far this season, he has made nine starts and has a record of 1-4 with an ERA of 5.21. Quintana’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.46. The left-hander has made just one quality start this year, and his ERA on the road is 9.21 compared to 3.5 at home. In his most recent outing, Quintana finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had lost three straight starts.
Coming into the game, the Mets are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 17th in the league. However, they have been much better on the road, averaging 5.3 runs per game. Overall, the Mets are batting .237 as a team, and their team on-base percentage of .308 is 14th in the league.
Brandon Nimmo comes into the game on a four-game hitting streak but is batting just .167 over his last six games. For the season, he is hitting .218 with seven homers. Pete Alonso has also struggled with a batting average of .235, but he does have a team-high 10 homers. Alonso is also on a seven-game hitting streak.
Cleveland is currently 32-17 overall, good for a 1st place in the AL Central. They hold a 1.5 game lead over the Royals and have gone 10-5 in divisional games. The Guardians have won five straight games, and they are 8-2 across their last 10.
At home, the Guardians are 17-6 this year and have gone 15-11 on the road. So far, they have really excelled in day games, going 15-3 this year. As the favorite, the Guardians are 21-9 and 11-8 as the underdog. Cleveland has won two straight series and has an overall series record of 11-4 this year.
The Guardians have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 29-20 overall. They have been especially good on the road, where they are 16-10 ATS. They have an average run margin of 1.3 runs per game this season.
Today’s over/under line of 9 runs is slightly higher than the season average of 8.4 runs per game for the Cleveland Guardians. The over/under record for the Guardians this season is 24-23, with an average line of 8 runs per game. When the line has been set at 9 runs, the over/under record is 3-4. Only 4.1% of their games have had a line set at 9 runs or higher this season.
Triston McKenzie gets the start for the Guardians today and will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in 6 2/3 innings of work. In that start vs. the Twins, he finished with a no-decision. Looking back over his last four outings, McKenzie has finished with a no-decision in three of them. The right-hander has a record of 2-3 this season and an ERA of 3.23. Opposing batters are hitting .198 off McKenzie this season. So far, he has made three quality starts and is averaging 7.61 strikeouts per nine innings.
For the season, the Guardians are averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 5th in the league. They have been even better at home, putting up 5 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .236, which is 14th in the league, and have the 12th ranked on-base percentage. Cleveland’s offense has the 9th best isolated power mark in the league.
Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor have been the team’s top power threats this season, with both of them having 12 homers. Ramirez’s 44 RBIs are the best in the league, and Naylor is 8th in the MLB with 34 RBIs. David Fry has also been a key contributor, as he is batting .338 for the season and has gone 5/8 with two homers over his last four games.
Our prediction for this one is that the Guardians will pick up a 6-5 win over the Mets. Given that they are at -131 on the money line, this is the bet we recommend making. Offensively, we have the Guardians finishing with nine hits, which has them finishing in the middle of the league in terms of hits today.
For the Mets, we actually have their starter, Jose Quintana, finishing with fewer strikeouts than the Guardians’ starter, Triston McKenzie. Quintana is projected to finish with six K’s, while McKenzie is predicted to finish with seven.
Looking at the Mets’ offense, they are predicted to finish with just eight hits, which is the third lowest in our projections. For the Guardians, they are predicted to finish with six runs, which has them finishing as the sixth highest scoring team in our projections.
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets Betting Tips
- Take the Guardians on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Mets (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Cleveland Guardians Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco | Out | Neck |
| Shane Bieber | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Stephan | Out | Elbow |
| James Karinchak | Out | Shoulder |
| Eli Morgan | Out | Shoulder |
| Steven Kwan | Out | Hamstring |
| Angel Martínez | Out | Hand |
| Gavin Williams | Out | Elbow |
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Drew Smith | Out | Shoulder |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Shoulder |
| Shintaro Fujinami | Out | Shoulder |
| David Peterson | Out | Hip |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Francisco Alvarez | Out | Thumb |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
