Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets Preview
Carlos Carrasco and the Cleveland Guardians are currently on a four-game winning streak, and they will look to keep things rolling on Tuesday when they face the Mets. New York will be sending Adrian Houser to the mound, and they are 21-26 overall, putting them 4th in the NL East.
The over/under line for Tuesday’s matchup is at 9.5 runs, and the Guardians are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -122 compared to the Mets at +104. This one will get started at 6:10 PM ET from Progressive Field in Cleveland, and SNY is carrying the game on TV.
Check out BetCoco for Cleveland Guardians – New York Mets odds
Cleveland Guardians Trends and Key Stats
- Over the course of their previous five away games, the Mets have recorded a 2-3 record, with a 2-3 performance on the runline.
- In the Guardians’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 3-2 (SU) with 3-2 against the spread.
- As the favorite, the Guardians are 6-4 over their last ten games, including going 4-6 vs. the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Mets have won 4-6 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 5-5 against the runline.
Cleveland picked up a 3-1 win over the Mets in the most recent game of this series. The Guardians offense only had four hits in the game but took advantage of their opportunities, scoring three runs in the first and picking up the win with Emmanuel Clase closing things out. Heading into the game, the Guardians were favored at -124 on the money line.
Ben Lively got the win for Cleveland, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up just one run. Tylor Megill had a solid outing for the Mets in the loss, giving up two earned runs across five innings of work.
At the plate, David Fry was the only Cleveland hitter to have more than one hit. He scored two runs and drove in a run. Tomas Nido had a two-hit game for the Mets, including a home run.
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets Prediction
With a record of 21-26, the Mets are 4th in the NL East, trailing the Phillies by 12.5 games. So far, they are just 5-8 in divisional games. The Mets have dropped seven of their last ten games and are looking to bounce back today on the road, where they are 11-12 this year.
As the favorite, the Mets have gone 12-12 this season and 9-14 when the underdog. New York has dropped two straight series at home, and their overall series record is 6-8-2 this year.
When the Mets win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.0 runs per game. But when they lose, they lose big, with an average run margin of -3.0 runs per game. Overall, the Mets have a run line record of 21-26, with a run line record of 13-10 on the road.
The Mets have played 47 games this season, and their over/under record is 24-23. The average over/under line for their games is 8 runs, and the combined run average in their games is 8.8 runs. The over/under line for today’s game against the Cleveland Guardians is 9.5 runs, and the over/under record in games with that line is 4-0. Only 2.1% of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s, and their games have gone under the over/under line in 89.4% of their games this season.
Right-hander Adrian Houser gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Guardians on the road. So far, he has made six starts and eight total appearances. Houser’s ERA is currently 7.44, and he has a record of 0-3. One of his starts came out of the bullpen, and he has finished with a no-decision in three straight outings. In his last outing, he gave up one earned run in two innings of work. Houser has allowed at least two home runs in three of his last five outings.
Currently, the Mets are 17th in the league in runs scored, averaging 4.3 runs per game. They have been a much better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 5.3 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .236, which is 12th in the league, and have the 13th most home runs in the MLB. New York’s team on-base percentage of .308 is 15th in the league.
Brandon Nimmo has really struggled at the plate for the Mets so far this season, hitting just .217, and he has gone 3/16 in his last four games. However, he does come into the game on a three-game hitting streak. Pete Alonso is also on a six-game hitting streak and has gone 8/28 in his last six games. Alonso leads the Mets with 10 homers, which is 7th in the league.
Cleveland comes into today’s game vs. the Mets with an overall record of 31-17, good or 1st place in the AL Central. They hold a 1.5-game lead over the Royals and have gone 10-5 against other teams in the AL Central. The Guardians have won four straight games, and they are 7-3 over their last 10.
At home, the Guardians are 16-6 this season and have gone 15-11 on the road. So far, they have been really good in day games, going 14-3 this season. As the favorite, the Guardians are 20-9 this year and 11-8 as the underdog.
When the Cleveland Guardians are the home team, they have been a solid bet against the run line this season, going 13-9. Their average run margin at home is +1.0, and they have covered the run line in three straight home games. Overall, they are 29-19 against the run line this season, with an average run margin of +1.3 runs per game.
With an average combined run total of 8.4 runs per game, the Cleveland Guardians have seen their games go over the over/under line in 23 of their 46 games this season. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs, and their games have gone over the line in 1 of the 2 games with a line of 9.5 runs. The under has hit in their last 2 games, and their games have had an over/under line of 9.5 runs in just 2 of their 48 games this season.
Carlos Carrasco will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Rangers, as he gets the start for the Guardians today. In that May 15th start, he took the loss, going five innings and giving up two earned runs. Looking at his overall numbers, Carrasco has made nine starts, has a record of 2-4, and his ERA is 5.16. Opponents are batting .261 off the right-hander this season. One positive note for Carrasco is that he has turned in two quality starts this year. Per nine innings, he is averaging 6.75 strikeouts and 3.57 walks.
Over the last six games, Andrés Giménez has been on fire for the Guardians, going 10/24 (.417) with four runs scored and one home run. He also has six RBIs during this stretch. David Fry has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 5/11 with one home run and four RBIs in his last four games. Josh Naylor has struggled in his last six games, going just 3/20.
For the season, the Guardians are 6th in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .237 and have the 9th ranked home run total in the league. José Ramirez and Josh Naylor are two of the league’s top home run hitters, with Ramirez’s 41 RBIs being the best mark in the league.
We are predicting that the Guardians will pick up a 5-4 win over the Mets. Given that they are at -122 on the money line, this is the way we recommend playing this one.
Looking at the starting pitchers, one thing that stands out is that Carlos Carrasco is projected to finish with more strikeouts than Adrian Houser, and he is also projected to finish with a better ERA.
Offensively, the Guardians are projected to finish with nine hits compared to the Mets with eight. However, the Mets are projected to finish with fewer runs and home runs than the Guardians.
If you’re looking for a parlay, you could look to pair the Guardians with the under, as the line is set at 9.5 runs, and we have this one finishing with a combined nine runs.
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets Betting Tips
- Take the Guardians on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Mets (+1.5)
- Our MLB model projects 9 runs, and we suggest taking the under
Cleveland Guardians Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Stephan | Out | Elbow |
| James Karinchak | Out | Shoulder |
| Eli Morgan | Out | Shoulder |
| Steven Kwan | Out | Hamstring |
| Angel Martínez | Out | Hand |
| Gavin Williams | Out | Elbow |
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Drew Smith | Out | Shoulder |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Shoulder |
| Shintaro Fujinami | Out | Shoulder |
| David Peterson | Out | Hip |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Francisco Alvarez | Out | Thumb |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
