Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets Preview
The Guardians will be looking to extend their three-game winning streak when they host the Mets at Progressive Field in Cleveland. Ben Lively will be on the mound for Cleveland, while the Mets are starting Tylor Megill. New York is 3rd in the NL East, and they have an overall record of 21-25. Cleveland is 1st in the AL Central with a record of 30-17.
Cleveland comes into this interleague matchup as the money line favorite, with the odds sitting at -128 compared to the Mets at +108. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs, and SNY will be televising this game.
Check out BetCoco for Cleveland Guardians – New York Mets odds
Cleveland Guardians Trends and Key Stats
- The Mets are 2-3 in their five most recent road games, including a 2-3 runline record.
- Conversely, the Guardians have achieved a 3-2 (SU) record and 3-2 record in their last five home games.
- The Guardians have a straight-up record of 6-4 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
- Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Mets have a 4-6 straight-up record and a 5-5 record vs. the runline.
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets Prediction
Heading into their last game vs. the Marlins, the Mets closed out the series with a 7-3 win. Leading up to the game, they were the slight favorite at -140 on the money line. It was a four-run 1st inning that really turned things in their favor, and the Marlins could only score three runs, all of which came in the 2nd.
Sean Manaea put together a good start for the Mets, going five innings and giving up just two earned runs, and picking up the win. New York’s offense was carried by Brandon Nimmo, who went 1/4 with a homer and two RBIs.
The Mets will be on the road today vs. the Guardians, and they are 21-25 overall, putting them 3rd in the NL East. Currently, they trail the Phillies by 12 games in the division. New York is just 5-8 in divisional games this year.
New York dropped two of three games in their series vs. the Marlins and are just 3-7 across their last 10. As the road team, the Mets are 11-11 compared to 10-14 at home. So far, they have been .500 as the road underdog, coming in with an 8-8 mark.
When betting the run line with the Mets, it’s been a better idea to take them on the road this season, where they are 13-9 vs. the run line. Their average run differential is -0.3 runs per game, but they are 3.0 runs better than their opponents in wins and 3.0 runs worse in losses.
The New York Mets have been on a five-game over streak, and their games have averaged 8.9 runs per game this season. Their over/under record is 24-22, and they have gone over the 8.5 run line in 6 of 10 games when the line has been set at 8.5 runs. The Mets’ games have averaged 8 runs per game this season.
After taking a loss in his first start of the season at home against the Brewers, Tylor Megill will be on the road to face the Guardians. In his first start, Megill went 4 innings and gave up 2 runs on 3 hits and struck out 4 batters.
So far this season, the Mets are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 16th in the league. However, they have been a much better offensive team on the road, averaging 5.5 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .237, which is 13th in the league, and are also near the middle of the pack in terms of on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor are both tied for 2nd on the team with seven homers, but both are looking to turn things around at the plate, as Nimmo is hitting just .217 for the season, and Lindor is even worse at .197. Pete Alonso is batting just .229 this season but is 5th in the league with 10 homers. Alonso is also on a five-game hitting streak and has gone 8/31 in his last seven games.
Heading into their last game vs. the Twins, the Guardians closed out the series with a 5-2 win. Leading up to the game, they were the slight favorite at -114 on the money line. It was a big 1st inning for the Guardians, as they scored two runs, and then added another two runs in the 3rd.
Tanner Bibee put together a good start for the Guardians, going seven innings and giving up just one earned run, and picking up the win. Cleveland’s offense was carried by Will Brennan, who went 1/4 with a homer and three RBIs.
Cleveland comes into today’s game vs. the Mets with an overall record of 30-17, good for 1st place in the AL Central. They lead the Royals by 1.5 games and have gone 10-5 in divisional matchups. The Guardians have won three straight games and closed out their series vs. the Twins with a three-game winning streak.
So far, the Guardians have been really good in day games, going 14-3, and they are 15-6 both at home and on the road. As the home favorite, Cleveland is 13-5 this season and 19-9 overall. Their overall series record is 11-4, and they have won two straight series.
When playing at home, the Cleveland Guardians have been a good bet against the run line this season, going 12-9. Their average run margin in all games is +1.3 runs per game, and they have a run line record of 28-19 overall. They are 16-10 against the run line on the road, where their average run margin is +1.5 runs per game. In games they win, their average run margin is +3.7 runs per game, while in losses, it is -3.1 runs per game. Their current run line win streak is two games, and they are 14-5 against the run line as the underdog.
Today’s over/under line of 8.5 runs is the highest line of the season for the Cleveland Guardians, who have had just 14.9% of their games with lines set at 8.5 runs or higher. The Guardians’ games have averaged 8.4 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 23-22. Their games have had an average line of 8 runs, and their over/under record when the line is set at 8.5 runs is 5-10.
Cleveland is sending Ben Lively to the mound today vs. the Mets, and he will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in six innings of work. In that outing vs. the Angels, he allowed three earned runs. Lively has made two starts at home and has a record of 1-0 with a 1.46 ERA. On the road, his record is 1-2 with a 3.96 ERA. So far this season, he has a WHIP of 1.27 and an ERA of 3.06. Opposing batters are hitting .227 off Lively this season.
Andrés Giménez comes into today’s game on a seven-game hitting streak, and over his last nine games, he has gone 13/36 with two homers and eight RBIs. For the season, he is batting .277 with three home runs. Josh Naylor has struggled a bit of late, batting just .189 over his last 10 games, but he does have 12 homers for the season, which is 3rd in the league.
Overall, the Guardians are 6th in the league in scoring at 4.9 runs per game. This is being done with a team batting average of just .238. As a team, they are also one of the league’s best at avoiding strikeouts, and they come into the game with the 7th best home run total in the league.
Our prediction for this one is that the Cleveland Guardians will pick up a 6-5 win at home over the New York Mets. With the money line sitting at -128, that’s the way we would recommend playing this one.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Ben Lively is projected to finish with just four strikeouts, which has him as one of the worst starters in terms of fantasy points. As for Tylor Megill, he’s projected to finish with five K’s, which has him in the middle of the pack.
Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets Betting Tips
- Take the Guardians on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Mets (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Cleveland Guardians Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Stephan | Out | Elbow |
| James Karinchak | Out | Shoulder |
| Eli Morgan | Out | Shoulder |
| Steven Kwan | Out | Hamstring |
| Angel Martínez | Out | Hand |
| Gavin Williams | Out | Elbow |
New York Mets Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| J.D. Martinez | Questionable | Illness |
| Brooks Raley | Out | Elbow |
| Drew Smith | Out | Shoulder |
| Kodai Senga | Out | Shoulder |
| Shintaro Fujinami | Out | Shoulder |
| David Peterson | Out | Hip |
| Ronny Mauricio | Out | Knee |
| Francisco Alvarez | Out | Thumb |
| Tylor Megill | Probable | Shoulder |
| Christopher Larez | Out | Personal |
