Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Preview
Thursday’s matchup between the Twins and Guardians is set to get started at 1:10 PM ET from Progressive Field in Cleveland. The Guardians are the betting favorite, with their money line odds sitting at -114 compared to the Twins at -104. The over/under line is currently at 8.5 runs.
Joey Cantillo is starting for the Guardians, while the Twins are sending Simeon Woods Richardson to the mound. Minnesota is currently 3rd in the AL Central, with an overall record of 80-72, while the Guardians are 1st in the division at 88-65. BSN is carrying this game on TV.
Check out BetCoco for Cleveland Guardians – Minnesota Twins odds
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins Trends and Key Stats
- 1-4 is the record of Twins in their last five road games. They have also gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- On the other side, the Guardians have gone 3-2 (SU) and 3-2 in their previous five home contests.
- In their previous ten games, the Twins have recorded a 4-6 record as the favorite, while they have a 3-7 record as the underdog.
- The Guardians have a 7-3 record when favored, while their record as the underdog is 3-7.
Cleveland picked up a 5-4 win over the Twins in the most recent game of this series. The Guardians had a two-run lead going into the 10th inning, and the Twins could only muster two runs in the bottom half of the inning. Heading into the game, the Guardians were favored at -130 on the money line.
Tanner Bibee started for the Guardians and went just 6 2/3 innings while giving up two runs and striking out five. He left the game with a two-run lead but didn’t factor in the decision. Hunter Gaddis got the win out of the bullpen, and Ronny Henriquez took the loss for the Twins.
Josh Naylor was the difference for the Guardians, as he homered twice, scored three times, and finished with two RBIs. Carlos Correa did the same for the Twins, going 3/5 with two homers.
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Prediction
Minnesota is 80-72 overall this season, and they are 7.5 games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead. So far, they have gone 29-22 against other teams in the AL Central. The Twins are 3rd in the division.
At home, the Twins have posted a 42-33 mark this season, and they are just under .500 at 38-39 on the road. As the favorite, Minnesota has gone 63-42 this season, and they are 17-30 as the underdog. Minnesota’s overall series record is 26-17-4, and they are losing their current series vs. the Guardians.
Minnesota has been a great bet on the run line on the road this season, going 39-38. The Twins have covered the run line in two straight road games and have an average run margin of 0.1 runs per game away from home. They have a run line record of 71-81 overall and have an average run margin of 0.2 runs per game this season.
Minnesota’s games have averaged 9.1 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 77-69. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, they have gone over 24 times and under 22 times. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs, and only 9.2% of their games have had lines set higher than 8.5 runs.
Right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson gets the start for the Twins today as he faces the Guardians on the road. He has made 26 starts this season and has a record of 5-5 with an ERA of 4.08. Woods Richardson’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.25, and he has turned in seven quality starts. In his last outing, he took the loss, giving up three earned runs in three innings of work. Before that, he had given up two earned runs in back-to-back starts. The right-hander has allowed at least one homer in three straight outings.
Carlos Santana has been a big power threat for the Twins this season, as he leads the team with 22 homers and 65 RBIs. He is also coming off a stretch in which he went 10/32 (.312) with two homers over his last eight games. Willi Castro has also been swinging the bat well of late, as he is on a seven-game hitting streak and is batting .251 for the season.
As a team, the Twins are 10th in home runs and are averaging 4.7 runs per game. This is a team that has been slightly better at home, averaging 4.9 runs per contest and batting a collective .249, which is the 7th best mark in the league.
Cleveland is 88-65 overall this season, and they lead the AL Central by six games over the Royals. The Guardians have gone 29-22 against other teams in the AL Central. They have won two of the first three games of this series vs. the Twins and are 7-3 across their last 10 games.
At home, the Guardians are 47-28 this season, and they are just above .500 at 41-37 on the road. As the favorite, Cleveland is 62-33 this year, and they are 26-32 as the underdog. So far, their overall series record is 26-15-6.
The Guardians have been a good bet on the run line this season, going 77-76 overall. They have been slightly better on the road, going 41-37, compared to 36-39 at home. As the favorite, they are just 44-51 on the run line, but as the underdog, they are 33-25. Their average run margin for the season is +0.5 runs per game.
The Cleveland Guardians are playing at home against the Minnesota Twins, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The Guardians’ games have averaged 8.3 runs per game this season, and their overall over/under record is 67-75. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 20-20. So far this season, 29 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, which accounts for 19.0% of their games.
Joey Cantillo will be looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up a run and picked up the win. In that September 14th outing vs. the Rays, he went 5 innings and didn’t give up a hit. Looking at his overall numbers, Cantillo has made six starts and one bullpen appearance. His record for the season is 2-3, and he has an ERA of 4.99. Opponents are batting .222 off the left-hander this season. Cantillo’s WHIP for the season is 1.17, and he has a total of six home runs allowed. Per nine innings, he is averaging 2.93 walks compared to 9.1 strikeouts.
Over the past five games, Josh Naylor has gone 6/19 with two homers and four RBIs. For the season, he is batting .245 with 31 homers, which is 2nd on the team and 11th in the league. Naylor’s 105 RBIs are also 2nd on the team and 6th in the MLB. José Ramírez has been the Guardians’ top hitter this season, batting .273 with 35 homers and 107 RBIs. He is also on an 11-game hitting streak.
For the season, the Guardians are averaging 4.4 runs per game and are one of the best teams in the league at avoiding strikeouts. As a team, they are batting .238 and have the 12th home run total in the league. Cleveland is 9th in the league in home runs and is averaging 4.7 runs per game at home.
Our predicted final score for this Twins vs. Guardians matchup is 5-4 in favor of the Twins. With the Twins being predicted to win, we recommend taking them on the money line, where they are currently at -104.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Joey Cantillo finishing with more strikeouts than Simeon Woods Richardson. However, Cantillo is projected to go just 3-4 innings, while we have Richardson going five. If you’re looking at a parlay, you could look at the over/under, and we would take the over at 8.5.
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Betting Tips
- We like the Twins on the moneyline (-104)
- The Twins are also our pick on the spread at -1.5
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Cleveland Guardians Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Out | Finger |
| Sam Hentges | Out | Shoulder |
| Shane Bieber | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Stephan | Out | Elbow |
| James Karinchak | Out | Shoulder |
| Steven Kwan | Out | Back |
Minnesota Twins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | Out | Elbow |
| Max Kepler | Out | Knee |
| Alex Kirilloff | Out | Back |
| Chris Paddack | Out | Forearm |
| Brock Stewart | Out | Undisclosed |
| Justin Topa | Out | Knee |
| Joe Ryan | Out | Teres Major |
| Daniel Duarte | Out | Elbow |
| Kody Funderburk | Out | Oblique |
