Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Preview
At 6:40 PM ET, the Twins and Guardians will face off in an AL Central matchup. This one is taking place at Progressive Field in Cleveland, and the Guardians are favored on the money line, with the odds sitting at -129 compared to the Twins at +110. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.
Both teams will be sending a right-hander to the mound, with Zebby Matthews going for the Twins and Gavin Williams for the Guardians. Williams and the Guardians are currently on a three-game winning streak and are 1st in the AL Central, while the Twins are 3rd in the division with an overall record of 79-71.
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Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Twins are 1-4. This includes going 0-5 vs. the runline.
- In the Guardians’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 3-2 (SU) with 3-2 against the spread.
- Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Guardians have won 8-2 straight-up, and have a 8-2 record vs. the runline.
- Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Twins have a 3-7 straight-up record and a 3-7 record vs. the runline.
Cleveland picked up a 4-3 win over the Twins in the most recent game of this series. The Guardians had a late rally, scoring two runs in the 8th and another two in the 9th. As for the Twins, they scored three runs in the 3rd but didn’t score another run the rest of the game.
Matthew Boyd got the start for the Guardians, going just 2 2/3 innings while giving up two runs and striking out five. Andrew Walters got the win out of the bullpen, and Emmanuel Clase got the save. Griffin Jax had a rough outing for the Twins, taking the loss.
Kyle Manzardo hit the game’s only home run while going 1/3 with two RBIs and two runs scored. Angel Martinez also had a three-hit game for Cleveland. Jose Ramirez and Will Brennan each had two hits and an RBI.
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Prediction
Minnesota is 79-71 overall and 3rd in the AL Central, trailing the Guardians by 7.5 games. So far, they have gone 28-21 in divisional games. The Twins will be on the road for today’s matchup vs. the Guardians, and they are 37-38 on the road this year.
The Twins have dropped five straight games as the underdog, and they are 9-22 as the underdog on the road. As the favorite, Minnesota has gone 63-42 this year. So far, they have an overall series record of 26-17-4. Minnesota needs to turn things around, as they are just 3-7 over their last 10 games.
The Twins have a run line record of 69-81 this season, and they are 37-38 against the run line on the road. They have failed to cover the run line in their last six road games and are 23-22 against the run line as an underdog this season.
Minnesota has played in 114 games this season, and the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs in 46 of them. The Twins have gone 24-22 in those games, which is a 52.2% win rate. Their games have averaged 9.2 runs per game this season, and their overall over/under record is 76-68. The over/under line has been set at 8 runs in the other 68 games, and they have gone 52-44 in those games.
Right-hander Zebby Matthews gets the start for the Twins today as he faces the Guardians on the road. Matthews has made six starts this year and has a record of 1-3 with an ERA of 7.11. So far, he has pitched much better on the road, coming in with an ERA of 5.4 compared to 12.82 at home. In his most recent outing, Matthews finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in 3 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had given up at least four earned runs in three straight starts.
Carlos Santana has been swinging the bat well of late for the Twins, batting .310 over his last eight games, including two home runs. He is also on a six-game hitting streak. For the season, Santana leads the Twins with 65 RBIs and 22 home runs. Ryan Jeffers is second on the team with 20 homers but is batting just .230 for the season.
Minnesota comes into the game as one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams, as they are 9th in the league in home runs and are averaging 4.7 runs per game. Their team batting average of .249 is 8th in the league, and they are also among the league leaders in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and isolated power.
Cleveland is currently 87-64 overall and leads the AL Central by five games over the Royals. The Guardians will take on the Twins today, having won three straight games, and they have taken the series lead vs. the Twins. So far, they have gone 28-21 in divisional games.
At home, the Guardians are 46-27 this year compared to a 41-37 mark on the road. As the favorite, Cleveland is 61-32 this year and 26-32 as the underdog. Their overall series record is 26-15-6.
The Guardians have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 77-74 overall. They have been especially strong at home against the run line, going 36-37. Their average run margin is +0.5 runs per game, and they have a +0.7 run differential at home this season. They have covered the run line in three straight home games and are 44-49 against the run line as the favorite this season.
When the Cleveland Guardians are at home, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. This season, the Guardians’ games have averaged 8.4 runs per game, and their overall over/under record is 66-74. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 20-20. So far this season, 29 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, accounting for 19.2% of their games. Their current under streak is at five games.
Gavin Williams gets the start for the Guardians today vs. the Twins and comes in with a record of 3-9 and ERA of 5.24. Looking at his overall numbers, Williams has made 14 appearances, and his opponents are batting .245 this season. Williams has made three quality starts this year, and his ERA at home is 7.55 compared to 11.2 on the road. In his last outing, Williams gave up three earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work, taking the loss. Before that, he had won two straight starts. So far, he has allowed seven homers at home and seven on the road.
Jose Ramirez has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 35 home runs are 7th best in the MLB and leads the Guardians. He is also 4th in the league with 107 RBIs. Over his last nine games, Ramirez is batting .306 with one home run. Lane Thomas has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/37 with two homers and 10 RBIs in his last nine games.
For the season, the Guardians are averaging 4.5 runs per game and are one of the league’s top home run hitting teams. Overall, they are batting just .238, which is 16th in the league. As a team, they are 4th in the league in fewest strikeouts per game.
Our prediction for this Twins vs. Guardians matchup is to take the Twins on the money line, with the payout being +110. We have the Twins winning this one by a final score of 5-4.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Gavin Williams finishing with more strikeouts than Zebby Matthews. However, Williams is projected to finish with 7 K’s, and his money line payout is -129.
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Betting Tips
- We like the Twins on the moneyline (+110)
- The Twins are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Cleveland Guardians Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco | Out | Hip |
| Alex Cobb | Out | Finger |
| Sam Hentges | Out | Shoulder |
| Shane Bieber | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Stephan | Out | Elbow |
| James Karinchak | Out | Shoulder |
| Steven Kwan | Questionable | Back |
Minnesota Twins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | Out | Elbow |
| Max Kepler | Out | Knee |
| Alex Kirilloff | Out | Back |
| Chris Paddack | Out | Forearm |
| Brock Stewart | Out | Undisclosed |
| Justin Topa | Out | Knee |
| Joe Ryan | Out | Teres Major |
| Daniel Duarte | Out | Elbow |
| Kody Funderburk | Out | Oblique |
