Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Preview
From Progressive Field in Cleveland, we have the Twins and Guardians facing off in an AL Central matchup. First pitch for this one is set for 6:10 PM ET. The forecast looks good for Saturday’s matchup, with temperatures in the high 60s and partly cloudy skies.
Minnesota is 3rd in the AL Central with a record of 24-20, while the Guardians are leading the division with a record of 28-17. Logan Allen will start for the Guardians, and he is facing off against Bailey Ober for the Twins. Cleveland is a slight favorite on the money line, and the over/under line is currently 7.5 runs.
Check out BetCoco for Cleveland Guardians – Minnesota Twins odds
Cleveland Guardians Trends and Key Stats
- The Twins are 3-2 across their last five road games. They have gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
- The Guardians, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 3-2 (SU) and 3-2 record.
- Over the last ten games, Twins has a record of 7-3 when playing as favorites and 4-6 when playing as underdogs.
- The Guardians hold a 6-4 record as the favorite and a 5-5 record as the underdog.
Cleveland picked up a 3-2 win over the Twins in the most recent game of this series. The Guardians had a two-run 6th inning and scored the game’s go-ahead run in the 8th. As for the Twins, they scored their only two runs in the 8th. Heading into the game, the Guardians were favored at -128 on the money line.
Triston McKenzie started for the Guardians and picked up the win, going 6 2/3 innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with five strikeouts but issued four walks. Emmanuel Clase got the save. As for the Twins, Simeon Woods Richardson got the start and took the loss, giving up one earned run in 5 1/3 innings of work.
David Fry was the difference for the Guardians’ offense, as he homered, scored three times, and finished with two RBIs. Jose Ramirez and Andres Gimenez each had two hits and an RBI. As for the Twins, Alex Kirilloff hit a home run, while Jorge Polanco went 2/4.
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Prediction
Minnesota is 24-20 overall and 3rd in the AL Central, trailing the Guardians by 3.5 games. The Twins have dropped four straight games, and this losing streak comes after winning four in a row. So far, they have gone 12-8 in divisional games.
At home, the Twins are an even 11-11 this year, and they have gone 13-9 on the road. As the road favorite, the Twins have gone 11-1 this season, and they are 19-9 overall as the favorite. Minnesota’s series record is 7-5-2 this year, and they have won three straight series on the road.
Minnesota has been a strong bet on the run line on the road, going 14-8, and they’ve covered in two straight. They are 23-21 overall on the run line, and their average run margin is +0.3 runs per game. They have been a better bet on the run line as the underdog, going 8-8, compared to 15-13 as the favorite. They are 9-13 on the run line at home, where their average run margin is -0.1 runs per game.
The Minnesota Twins have played 28 games this season with over/under lines higher than 7.5 runs, and the over has hit in 20 of those contests. Their games have averaged 8.7 runs per game, and their over/under record for the season is 20-23. The over/under line for today’s game against the Cleveland Guardians is set at 7.5 runs.
Right-hander Bailey Ober gets the start for the Twins today as he faces the Guardians on the road. So far this season, he has made eight starts and has a record of 4-1. Ober’s ERA is 3.77, and he is coming off a start in which he didn’t allow a run. In that outing against the Blue Jays, he went 6 1/3 innings, picking up the win. Ober has made four quality starts this year and is averaging 9.42 strikeouts per nine innings. For the season, he has allowed five home runs. Looking at his numbers, Ober’s ERA on the road is 12.49 compared to 2.30 at home.
As a team, the Twins are averaging 4.5 runs per game, which is 14th in the majors. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 5.3 runs per game. Minnesota’s offense has been solid in terms of home runs, as they are 9th in the league in homers. Currently, they are batting a collective .232, which is 15th in the league.
Ryan Jeffers has been one of the Twins’ top power threats this season, as his 10 homers are good for 4th in the league and the best mark on the team. However, he is coming off a stretch in which he has gone just 4/24. Carlos Santana has also struggled this season, batting just .203, but he has hit 7 homers. Over his last nine games, he is batting .281 with three homers.
Cleveland is 28-17 overall and leads the AL Central by 1.5 games over the Royals. So far, they have gone 8-5 in divisional matchups. The Guardians have been really good at home this year, putting together a record of 13-6. They have also been good on the road, going 15-11.
When playing during the day, the Guardians have been really good, going 13-3 this year. As the favorite, Cleveland has gone 18-9 and 10-8 as the underdog. Cleveland has won two straight at home, and their overall series record is 10-4 this year.
When the Guardians win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.6 runs per game. When they lose, it’s usually close, with an average run margin of -3.1 runs per game. Cleveland’s run line record is 26-19 overall, with a slightly better record on the road (16-10) than at home (10-9). They have been a better bet as the underdog (13-5) than as the favorite (13-14).
The Cleveland Guardians have an over/under record of 22-21 this season, and their games have averaged 8.3 runs per game. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs, and their games have had an average over/under line of 7.5 runs. In games where the over/under line has been set at 7.5 runs, the over has hit in 9 of 11 games. Their games have had an over/under line of 7.5 runs in 30 of their games this season, which is 66.7% of their games. Their last two games have gone under the total.
Left-hander Logan Allen gets the start for the Guardians today as he faces the Twins at home. Allen has made nine starts this year and has a record of 4-2 with an ERA of 5.56. One of his two quality starts came in his most recent outing, where he didn’t allow a run in six innings of work against the White Sox. Before that, he had given up at least two earned runs in three straight starts. Allen’s ERA at home is 12.42 compared to 3.26 on the road.
Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor have been carrying the Cleveland offense this season, as Ramirez’s 38 RBIs are the 2nd most in the league, and Naylor’s 12 homers are the 2nd most in the MLB. Ramirez is also 4th in the league in homers, with 10. Naylor has struggled a bit of late, hitting just .182 over his last nine games. Ramirez has also homered three times in this stretch while hitting .265. Ramirez and Andrés Giménez are both on nice hitting streaks, with Ramirez at four games and Giménez at five.
Over their last eight games, David Fry and Andrés Giménez have been swinging the bat well, with Fry going 8/22 and Giménez going 9/32. Fry has three homers in this stretch, while Giménez has one. For the season, Steven Kwan is leading the team with a .353 batting average, and he has gone deep three times.
Our pick for this Twins vs. Guardians matchup is to take the Guardians on the money line at -105. We have the Guardians winning this one by a score of 6-5, and with the payout being better than even money, this is the route we recommend.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Logan Allen is projected to finish with four strikeouts, which has him as the fifth worst among starters. As for Bailey Ober, his projected strikeout total is five, which has him in the middle of the pack.
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Betting Tips
- Take the Twins on the moneyline
- The Guardians are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Cleveland Guardians Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Stephan | Out | Elbow |
| James Karinchak | Out | Shoulder |
| Eli Morgan | Out | Shoulder |
| Steven Kwan | Out | Hamstring |
| Angel Martínez | Out | Hand |
| Gavin Williams | Out | Elbow |
Minnesota Twins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | Out | Elbow |
| Byron Buxton | Out | Knee |
| Zack Weiss | Out | Shoulder |
| Brock Stewart | Out | Shoulder |
| Royce Lewis | Out | Quadricep |
| Justin Topa | Out | Knee |
| Josh Winder | Out | Shoulder |
| Daniel Duarte | Out | Elbow |
