Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Preview
From Progressive Field in Cleveland, we have the Twins and Guardians facing off in an AL Central matchup. The Guardians are currently on a three-game winning streak and are 27-17, while the Twins are 24-19 overall and 3rd in the AL Central.
Friday’s forecast in Cleveland calls for light rain and temperatures in the low 60s. APLTV will be televising this one, and the Guardians are the slight money line favorite at -118. The Twins are starting Simeon Woods Richardson, and Cleveland will have Triston McKenzie on the mound.
Check out BetCoco for Cleveland Guardians – Minnesota Twins odds
Cleveland Guardians Trends and Key Stats
- The Twins are 4-1 across their last five road games. They have gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Guardians have a 3-2 (SU) record, along with a 3-2 record in their last five home contests.
- As the favorite, the Guardians are 5-5 over their last ten games, including going 4-6 vs. the runline.
- When playing as the underdog, the Twins have won 4-6 of their previous ten games straight-up, while going 5-5 against the runline.
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Prediction
Minnesota closed out their series vs. the Yankees with a 5-0 loss. Heading into the game, the Twins were the slight favorite at -118 on the money line. Things really got away from the Twins in the 1st inning, as the Yankees scored three runs in the inning. New York’s offense added another run in the 6th to put things out of reach. The Twins also wasted a good outing from Joe Ryan, who took the loss, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up four runs on six hits.
Joe Ryan got the start for the Twins and took the loss. He only lasted 5 1/3 innings, giving up four runs on six hits. Ryan also issued three walks and hit a batter. Offensively, the Twins only had three fewer hits than the Yankees but didn’t score a run. Their lone bright spot was Jorge Polanco, who went 3 for 4 with a double.
Minnesota opens their series vs. the Guardians, having dropped three straight games, and they are 24-19 overall this season, which is good for 3rd place in the AL Central. Currently, they are 2.5 games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead. So far, they have gone 12-7 in divisional games.
At home, the Twins are an even 11-11 this year, and they have gone 13-8 on the road. As the favorite, the Twins have gone 19-9 this year, and they are 5-10 as the underdog. Minnesota’s overall series record is 7-5-2, and they have won three straight series on the road.
When the Twins win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.6 runs per game. But when they lose, they lose big, with an average run margin of -3.8 runs per game. This has led to a run line record of 22-21, with the Twins covering the run line in 13 of 21 road games.
The Twins have had a combined run average of 8.8 runs per game this season, but their over/under record is just 20-22. The over/under line for today’s game against the Guardians is set at 8 runs. When the line has been set at 8 runs this season, the Twins have gone under in 7 of 12 games. Their last four games have all gone under the total, with the Twins and their opponents combining for just 5, 4, 6, and 6 runs in those contests.
Simeon Woods Richardson will be making his 4th start of the season for the Twins, and he will be on the road against the Cleveland Guardians. He has yet to factor into a decision in any of his first 3 starts, but has been very effective, as he has 23 strikeouts in 15 innings of work. In his last start, he struck out 8 batters in 4 1/3 innings, but he did give up 5 runs.
Carlos Santana and Edouard Julien are both tied for 2nd on the Twins in home runs this season, but both players are batting under .225 for the season. However, Santana has gone 7/24 in his last six games, including three home runs, and has seven RBIs in that stretch. Ryan Jeffers is the team’s top home run hitter, with 10 homers, which is 4th in the league. However, he is batting just .125 over his last four games.
As a team, the Twins are averaging 4.6 runs per game and have been even better on the road, where they are averaging 5.4 runs per contest. Overall, they are 10th in home runs and have the league’s 5th best isolated power figure. So far, they are 17th in batting average and have been below average in terms of on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
Cleveland closed out their series vs. the Rangers with a 4-0 loss on the road. The Guardians were the +162 underdog going into this matchup. Things started off well for the Guardians, as they got a single from Andrés Giménez in the 1st inning but couldn’t bring him around to score. Cleveland’s offense then went cold, as they only had two more hits the rest of the game.
Carlos Carrasco got the start for the Guardians and took the loss. He only lasted five innings, giving up two earned runs, and took the loss. Cleveland’s offense scored a total of jsonly four runs in the three-game series vs. the Rangers.
Cleveland is currently 27-17 overall and leads the AL Central by 1.5 games over the Royals. So far, they have gone 7-5 in divisional matchups. The Guardians are 14-4 in day games this season.
At home, the Guardians are 12-6 this season and have gone 15-11 on the road. Heading into today’s matchup vs. the Twins, they have an overall series record of 10-4. As for their record as the underdog at home, they are 1-1 this season. As for their overall record as the underdog, they are 10-8 compared to a mark of 17-9 as the favorite.
When the Cleveland Guardians win, they do so by an average of 3.7 runs per game, which has helped them to a 26-18 run line record. They are 13-13 vs. the run line as the favorite and 13-5 as the underdog. Their average run margin for the season is +1.1 runs per game.
The Cleveland Guardians have had 47.7% of their games this season with over/under lines set higher than 8 runs. Their combined run average is 8.4 runs per game, and their over/under record for the season is 22-20. In their last 10 games, the over/under line has been set at 8 runs in 4 games, and their over/under record in those games is 4-3-1. In their last 10 games, the Guardians have had 5 games go over the total and 5 games go under the total.
Triston McKenzie gets the start for the Guardians today and will be looking to bounce back from his last outing, where he took the loss. Against the White Sox on May 11th, he gave up one earned run in 6 2/3 innings of work. Looking at his overall numbers, McKenzie has made eight starts, has a record of 2-3, and an ERA of 3.54. Opponents are batting .209 this season off McKenzie, and his WHIP is 1.38. So far, he has turned in two quality starts and is averaging 7.75 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, he has allowed five homers and is averaging 5.31 walks per nine innings.
Josh Naylor has been one of the league’s top power threats this season, as his 12 homers are 2nd in the MLB and lead the Guardians. However, he has hit just .229 over his last 10 games. José Ramírez has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 12/38 in his last 10 games with three homers. For the season, he is hitting .249 with a team-high 37 RBIs.
As a team, the Guardians are 8th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. This comes despite a team batting average of just .235, which is 16th in the league. Cleveland’s offense has been good at avoiding strikeouts this season, and they are also near the top of the league in home runs.
Our prediction for today’s Twins vs. Guardians matchup is for the Guardians to pick up a 6-5 win at home. If you’re looking for a recommended pick, we would take the Guardians on the money line, as they are predicted to win and have a payout of -118.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Triston McKenzie is predicted to finish with six strikeouts, which would have him as the fourth-best starter in terms of K’s. As for Simeon Woods Richardson, he is projected to finish with five strikeouts, which would have him in the middle of the pack.
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Betting Tips
- Take the Guardians on the moneyline
- The Guardians should also cover at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Cleveland Guardians Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Stephan | Out | Elbow |
| James Karinchak | Out | Shoulder |
| Eli Morgan | Out | Shoulder |
| Steven Kwan | Out | Hamstring |
| Angel Martínez | Out | Hand |
| Gavin Williams | Out | Elbow |
Minnesota Twins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | Out | Elbow |
| Byron Buxton | Out | Knee |
| Zack Weiss | Out | Shoulder |
| Brock Stewart | Out | Shoulder |
| Royce Lewis | Out | Quadricep |
| Justin Topa | Out | Knee |
| Josh Winder | Out | Shoulder |
| Daniel Duarte | Out | Elbow |
