Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Prediction & Betting Tips 8/27/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Preview

From Progressive Field in Cleveland, we have the Royals and Guardians facing off in an AL Central matchup. The Guardians are favored on the money line (-146), while the odds for a Royals win are sitting at +124. The over/under line is currently at 9 runs.

The forecast for Tuesday’s game calls for temperatures in the upper 80s with a few clouds. First pitch is set for 6:40 PM ET, and BSGL will be televising this one. Michael Lorenzen is starting for the Royals, and the Guardians are going with Gavin Williams. Both teams are 2-2 in their last five games.

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Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals Trends and Key Stats

• Across their last five road games, the Royals are 5-0. This includes going 4-1 vs. the runline.
• The Guardians, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 1-4 (SU) and 2-3 record.
• The Guardians have a straight-up record of 6-4 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
• The Royals have a 3-7 straight-up record and a 4-6 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.

Thanks to a four-run 6th inning for the Royals’ offense, they cruised to a 9-4 win over the Guardians in the most recent game of this series. Heading into the game, the Royals were at +117 on the money line.

Kansas City got to Guardians starter Logan Allen, who gave up five earned runs in just five innings of work and took the loss. As for the Royals, Alec Marsh only went 4 2/3 innings but gave up just two earned runs and got the win.

Salvador Perez and Paul DeJong each homered for the Royals, while Daniel Schneemann hit a home run for Cleveland. Perez finished the game with six RBIs.

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Kansas City is 74-58 overall and is 2nd in the AL Central, trailing the Guardians by just one game. The Royals have won two straight games, and they are 7-3 over their last 10. So far, they have been very good against other teams in the AL Central, putting together a record of 28-13.

At home, the Royals have gone 41-28 this season, and they are just above .500 at 33-30 on the road. As the favorite, the Royals are 43-25 this year, and they are 17-21 as the road underdog. Kansas City has won six straight games as the road underdog, and their overall series record is 19-21-1.

When the Royals win, they do so by an average of 4.0 runs per game, but when they lose, they lose by an average of 3.4 runs per game. Overall, they have a run line record of 74-58, and they are 35-28 against the run line on the road.

The Kansas City Royals are on the road to face the Cleveland Guardians today. The over/under line is set at 9 runs, which matches their combined run average for the season. The Royals have an over/under record of 61-67 this year, and their games have averaged exactly 9 runs per game. When the over/under line has been set at 9 runs, their record is 14-12-1. This season, 21 of their games have had higher over/under lines than 9 runs, accounting for 15.9% of their games.

Michael Lorenzen has made 22 starts this season and has a record of 7-6 with an ERA of 3.48. Out of his 22 starts, Lorenzen has turned in nine quality starts. His most recent outing was on August 21st vs. the Angels, where he picked up the win, going seven innings and not allowing a run. In that outing, he gave up four hits, issued two walks, and didn’t allow a homer. Before that, he had given up at least one homer in three straight outings. Lorenzen has been much better at home, with an ERA of 3.2 compared to 7.06 on the road.

As a team, the Royals are averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 8th in the league. They have been even better at home, where they are averaging 5.2 runs per game. Overall, the Royals are one of the league’s top home run hitting teams, and they also have a strong team batting average of .258.

Over his last 10 games, Salvador Perez has gone 12/36 with three homers and 14 RBIs. Perez is also on a three-game hitting streak. Bobby Witt Jr. is also on a three-game hitting streak and comes into the game with a team-leading 27 homers and a batting average of .347.

Cleveland is currently 75-57 overall and leads the AL Central by just one game over the Royals. The Guardians have dropped two straight games, and this losing streak includes losing the first two games of this series vs. the Royals. So far, they have gone 21-19 in AL Central play.

At home, the Guardians have gone 40-23 this season, and they are just above .500 at 35-34 on the road. As the favorite, Cleveland has gone 52-28 this year, and they are 23-29 as the underdog. Looking at their overall series record, the Guardians are 24-13-4 this year.

When the Cleveland Guardians win, they do so by an average of 3.4 runs per game. When they lose, they lose by an average of 3.2 runs per game. Their overall run line record is 65-67, and they are 30-33 against the run line at home. As the underdog, they are 30-22 against the run line.

Today’s over/under line of 9 runs is slightly higher than the Cleveland Guardians’ season average of 8.6 combined runs per game. The Guardians have played to the over in 63 of their 123 games this season, and their games have averaged 8 runs per game. When the over/under line has been set at 9 runs, the Guardians have gone 8-10-2 in those games. Only 4.5% of their games this season have had an over/under line set at 9 runs or higher.

Cleveland is sending Gavin Williams to the mound today vs. the Royals, and he will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Yankees. In that start, he went 4 1/3 innings, giving up three earned runs, and taking the loss. Williams has made 10 starts this year and has a record of 2-6 with a 5.13 ERA. Looking at his home/away splits, Williams is 0-4 with a 9.15 ERA at home compared to 2-2 with a 3.46 ERA on the road. So far, he has turned in two quality starts and is averaging 9.89 strikeouts per nine innings.

Heading into today’s game, the Guardians are 13th in the league in scoring at 4.5 runs per game. At home, they have been even better, averaging 4.9 runs per game. As a team, they are batting just .237, which is 17th in the league, and their collective on-base percentage of .308 is also below the league average. However, they do have the 13th ranked isolated power number in the league.

Jose Ramirez comes into the game with the 2nd best batting average on the team at .277 and is 2nd in the league with 104 RBIs. He also leads the Guardians with 33 homers. Josh Naylor is 2nd on the team with 28 homers but is batting just .234 for the season. Jhonkensy Noel has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 8/26 in his last seven games with three homers.

We are in agreement with the oddsmakers that the Guardians will pick up the win in this one, and we see them winning by a score of 6-5. With the payout on a Guardians win sitting at -146, this is the way we recommend playing this one.

Looking at the starting pitchers, both Michael Lorenzen and Gavin Williams have similar chances of picking up a win, but Williams has a higher projected strikeout total, and we have him finishing with six K’s compared to Lorenzen at four.

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Betting Tips

• Take the Guardians on the moneyline
• On the run line we like the Royals (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

Cleveland Guardians Injury Report

Kansas City Royals Injury Report