Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros Prediction & Betting Tips 9/27/2024

Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros Preview

From Progressive Field in Cleveland, we have the Astros and Guardians facing off in an AL matchup. The Astros are +103 on the money line compared to the Guardians at -122. The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs.

First pitch for this one is set for 7:10 PM ET, and MLBN will be carrying the TV coverage. Ronel Blanco is starting for the Astros, and the Guardians will go with Joey Cantillo. Houston is currently 1st in the AL West, while the Guardians are 1st in the AL Central with a record of 92-67.

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Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Trends and Key Stats

• Over the course of their previous five away games, the Astros have recorded a 3-2 record, with a 3-2 performance on the runline.
• On the other side, the Guardians have gone 3-2 (SU) and 4-1 in their previous five home contests.
• Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Guardians have a straight-up record of 6-4, while going 5-5 against the runline.
• The Astros have a 4-6 straight-up record and a 6-4 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.

Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros Prediction

Houston closed out their series vs. the Mariners with a tough 8-1 loss. Heading into the game, the Astros were the +132 underdog on the money line. Things started off well for the Astros, as they got on the board with a run in the 3rd inning but gave up the lead right away as the Mariners scored three times in the top of the 3rd.

Yusei Kikuchi put together a good start for the Astros, going six innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just one walk and struck out eight Mariners. However, the Astros’s offense really struggled after their 3rd-inning run, and they didn’t score again. Overall, the Astros only had four hits and scored just one run.

Houston heads into today’s road matchup with the Guardians holding a record of 86-73, which is good for a four-game lead in the AL West over the Mariners. The Astros lost two of three in their most recent series vs. the Mariners. This year, the Astros are 29-23 in divisional games.

As the road team, the Astros are 40-38 this season compared to 46-35 at home. They have an overall record of 67-51 as the favorite and are 19-22 as the underdog. Their overall series record is 27-22-2 this season, and they will kick off their series vs. the Guardians today.

When the Astros are on the road, they have a run line record of 43-35, with an average run margin of 0.2. As the favorite, their run line record is 55-63, but as the underdog, they are 26-15 vs. the run line.

Today’s game between the Houston Astros and Cleveland Guardians has an over/under line of 7.5 runs, which is below the teams’ combined run average of 8.6 runs per game this season. The Astros have played in 122 games with over/under lines higher than 7.5 runs this season, going over the total in 65 of those games. When the over/under line has been set at 7.5 runs, the over has gone 11-19 in Astros games this season.

Ronel Blanco has been pitching well for the Astros, as he comes into the game with a record of 12-6 and an ERA of 2.88. Blanco’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.10. In his 28 starts, Blanco has one complete game shutout and 14 quality starts. The right-hander most recently faced the Angels, where he picked up the win after going six innings and giving up two earned runs. Blanco finished with nine strikeouts in that outing. Before that, he hadn’t allowed a homer in three straight starts. Blanco has been especially good at home, with a record of 6-4 and an ERA of 3.48 compared to 6-2 with a 2.62 ERA on the road.

Yordan Alvarez has been the Astros’ top power threat this season, as his 35 home runs are not only the best mark on the team but also 8th best in the league. His 86 RBIs are also the best on the team. Alvarez comes into the game with a strong batting average of .308. Alex Bregman has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 7/22 in his last six games with three homers.

For the season, the Astros are 3rd in batting average and are averaging 4.6 runs per game. At home, they have been even better, averaging 4.9 runs per contest. Overall, they are 9th in home runs and have the 3rd fewest strikeouts in the league. As a team, they are batting a collective .261.

The Guardians’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Reds, closing out their series with a 5-2 win. After allowing two runs to the Reds in the top of the first, the Guardians responded with a run of their own and added another in the 4th. Cleveland went on to close out the Reds with a 3-run 8th inning. Heading into the game, the Guardians were the heavy favorite at -146.

Andrew Walters got the start for the Guardians, going only 1 2/3 innings. He didn’t give up a run, but he also issued three walks. Hunter Gaddis picked up the win out of the bullpen, and Emmanuel Clase got the save.

Cleveland is hosting the Astros today with an overall record of 92-67, and they lead the AL Central by seven games. The Guardians have been playing well, having won two straight games and are 7-3 across their last 10. Cleveland has gone 30-22 against other teams in the AL Central.

So far, the Guardians have been tough to beat at home, going 50-28 compared to 42-39 on the road. As the favorite, the Guardians are 64-34 this season and 28-33 as the underdog. Looking at their overall series record, the Guardians are 29-16-6 this year.

When it comes to run line betting, the Guardians have been a solid play this season, going 82-77 overall. They are 39-39 against the run line at home and 43-38 on the road. They have covered the run line in three straight home games and are 46-52 against the run line as the favorite and 36-25 as the underdog.

The Cleveland Guardians are playing at home against the Houston Astros, and the over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The Guardians have played 110 games this season with over/under lines higher than 7.5 runs, which accounts for 69.2% of their games. Their combined run average for the season is 8.3 runs per game, and their over/under record is 68-80.

Joey Cantillo is looking to bounce back from a short outing vs. the Twins, as he got the start and went just 4 1/3 innings. He finished with a no-decision in the outing, giving up one earned run on six hits. Looking back further, Cantillo had picked up the win in two straight starts before this outing. His record for the season is 2-3, and his ERA is 4.63. Opponents are batting .218 vs. Cantillo this season. So far, he has made one quality start and is averaging 9.51 strikeouts per nine innings.

Jose Ramirez has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/24 in his last six games with three homers and eight RBIs. For the season, he is batting .279 with 38 homers and 115 RBIs, which is 3rd in the league. Josh Naylor is also a power threat in the lineup, as he has gone deep 31 times and is batting .243.

As a team, the Guardians are averaging 4.4 runs per game and have been a better offensive team at home, where they are averaging 4.7 runs per contest. Overall, they are 11th in the league in home runs and have the 16th best batting average in the MLB. Cleveland’s offense has been good at avoiding strikeouts this season, but they are near the bottom of the league in terms of drawing walks.

We see the Astros as a great value bet today, with their money line sitting at +103. Our predicted final score is 5-4 in favor of the Astros, giving us a little bit of wiggle room with the over/under line sitting at 7.5 runs.

Looking at today’s starting pitchers, we have Ronel Blanco finishing with five strikeouts, and Joey Cantillo with eight. However, Cantillo is projected to give up more runs than Blanco, and we have him finishing with the third-worst ERA among today’s starters.

Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros Betting Tips

• We like the Astros on the moneyline (+103)
• The Astros are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
• Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over

Cleveland Guardians Injury Report

Houston Astros Injury Report