Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Preview
At Progressive Field in Cleveland, we have an interleague matchup between the Reds and Guardians. Cincinnati is 76-82 and on a two-game losing streak, with the Reds being 4th in the NL Central. Cleveland is the favorite on the money line (-148) and is 1st in the AL Central with a record of 91-67.
The over/under line for Wednesday’s game is currently at 8 runs, and the forecast calls for light rain and temperatures in the low 70s. Jakob Junis is slated to start for the Reds, while Joey Cantillo goes for the Guardians. BSGL will be televising this one starting at 6:40 PM ET.
Check out BetCoco for Cleveland Guardians – Cincinnati Reds odds
Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds Trends and Key Stats
- 2-3 is the record of Reds in their last five road games. They have also gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- On the other side, the Guardians have gone 3-2 (SU) and 4-1 in their previous five home contests.
- Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Guardians have a straight-up record of 6-4, while going 5-5 against the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Reds have a straight-up record of 3-7 and a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
Cleveland cruised to an easy 6-1 win over the Reds in the most recent game of this series. The Guardians had a huge 1st inning, scoring three of their six runs. As for the Reds, they scored their only run in the 4th. Heading into the game, the Guardians were favored at -202 on the money line.
Tanner Bibee pitched well for the Guardians in this one, going seven innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with seven strikeouts but issued two walks. On the other side, Carson Spiers only went four innings for the Reds, giving up three earned runs on five hits.
Cleveland’s two homers came from Lane Thomas and Kyle Manzardo. Thomas, Josh Naylor, Jose Ramirez, and Will Brennan each had two RBIs for the Guardians’ offense.
Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction
Cincinnati is 76-82 overall, and they are 14.5 games out of the NL Central lead, putting them 4th in the division. The Reds are also 23-26 against other teams in the NL Central. They have dropped two straight games and lost three of their last four.
At home, the Reds are 39-42 this season, and they are just above .500 at 37-40 on the road. As the underdog, the Reds are 41-48 this season, and they are just above .500 at 35-34 as the favorite. Cincinnati’s overall series record is 20-28-3, and they have lost the first game of this series vs. the Guardians.
In their 85-73 run line record, the Reds have been much better on the road than at home, going 47-30 vs. the run line away from Cincinnati. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.8, while it’s -3.4 in losses.
The Reds have been involved in high-scoring games this season, with their games averaging 8.7 runs per game. Their over/under record for the season is 73-78, and when the line is set at 8 runs, they are 7-13. Overall, 70.9% of their games have had lines set at over 8 runs, with the O/U line for today’s game set at 8 runs.
Cincinnati is sending Jakob Junis to the mound today vs. the Guardians, and he has made 23 appearances this year to go along with five starts. Junis’ record for the season is 4-0, and he has an ERA of 2.61. This year, he has turned in just one quality start, and his WHIP for the season is .84. Looking back at his last outing, Junis went six innings vs. the Braves, giving up one earned run on two hits. He finished with six strikeouts in that outing. Junis has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three outings.
Elly De La Cruz has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/34 in his last eight games with one homer and five RBIs. He is also the team’s leader in RBIs for the season, with 74 and has gone deep 25 times. Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario are also tied for 2nd on the team with 20 homers, but Steer is batting just .229, and Candelario is hitting only .225.
As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. Their team batting average of .232 is 19th in the MLB, and they are also near the bottom of the league in OBP, SLG, and OPS. Currently, Tyler Stephenson is on a seven-game hitting streak and has gone 9/25 in his last seven games.
Cleveland is 91-67 overall and leads the AL Central by 7.5 games over the Royals. The Guardians have gone 30-22 against other teams in the AL Central. They have won three straight games at home, and they are 49-28 at home this year.
So far, the Guardians have been good as the favorite, going 63-34, and they are 28-33 as the underdog. Cleveland has been good overall this year, as they have won seven of their last ten games. The Guardians’ series record is 28-16-6 this year.
While the Guardians have been a solid bet overall against the run line, they have been better on the road than at home. They are 43-38 against the run line on the road compared to 38-39 at home. They have covered the run line in two straight home games, but their run line record as the favorite is just 45-52, while they are 36-25 against the run line as the underdog.
Today’s over/under line of 8 runs for the Cleveland Guardians’ game against the Cincinnati Reds is right in line with their season average of 8 runs per game. The Guardians have played 70 games this season with over/under lines set higher than 8 runs, which accounts for 44.3% of their games. Their over/under record is 68-79 overall, and they are currently on a two-game under streak.
Cleveland is starting left-hander Joey Cantillo today vs. the Reds. He has made seven starts this year and has a record of 2-3 with an ERA of 4.63. Cantillo’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.20. In his 35 innings of work, Cantillo has allowed six home runs and is averaging 9.51 strikeouts per nine innings. The last time he took the mound, Cantillo finished with a no-decision, going 4 1/3 innings vs. the Twins. He gave up one earned run in that outing. Before that, he had won two straight starts.
Jose Ramirez has been one of the league’s top run producers this season, as his 112 RBIs are 3rd in the MLB. He also leads the Guardians with 37 home runs and is batting .275. Over his last five games, Ramirez has gone 7/20 with two homers and five RBIs. Josh Naylor is also having a strong season at the plate, with 31 homers and 107 RBIs.
Overall, the Guardians are averaging 4.4 runs per game and are hitting a combined .238. They have been a better offensive team at home, averaging 4.7 runs per contest. As a team, they are 10th in home runs and have the 4th fewest strikeouts in the league.
Our predicted final score for this one is 5-4 in favor of the Guardians, which has us going with them on the money line at -148. At this payout, we see this as a great value, as our projections have the Guardians winning this one over the Reds 60% of the time.
Looking at the over/under line, the line is currently sitting at 8 runs, and we have this one going under. However, we see there being a bit more value on the money line, as we actually have the Guardians scoring five runs compared to the Reds with four.
Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Tips
- Take the Guardians on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Reds (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Cleveland Guardians Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Out | Finger |
| Sam Hentges | Out | Shoulder |
| Shane Bieber | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Stephan | Out | Elbow |
| James Karinchak | Out | Shoulder |
| Steven Kwan | Out | Back |
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario | Out | Toe |
| Sam Moll | Out | Shoulder |
| Nick Lodolo | Out | Finger |
| Jakob Junis | Probable | Personal |
| Austin Wynns | Out | Teres Major |
| Stuart Fairchild | Out | Thumb |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Graham Ashcraft | Out | Elbow |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Roa | Out | Shoulder |
| Andrew Abbott | Out | Shoulder |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
| Julian Aguiar | Out | Shoulder |
