Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago Cubs Preview
Wednesday’s interleague matchup between the Cubs and Guardians has a first pitch set for 6:40 PM ET from Progressive Field in Cleveland. The Guardians are the betting favorite, with their money line odds sitting at -134, while the Cubs are at +113. The over/under line is currently at 8.5 runs.
Chicago comes in with a record of 59-62, while the Guardians are 71-49. Cleveland will be looking to continue their four-game winning streak, while the Cubs are hoping to snap a two-game skid. Jameson Taillon will start for the Cubs, and he is facing off against Alex Cobb. Cleveland is in first place in the AL Central, while the Cubs are 4th in the NL Central.
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Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago Cubs Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Cubs are 3-2. This includes going 3-2 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Guardians have a 3-2 (SU) record, along with a 2-3 record in their last five home contests.
- Over their last ten games when playing as the favorite, the Guardians have won 8-2 straight-up, and have a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Cubs have a straight-up record of 7-3 and a 9-1 record vs. the runline.
Cleveland picked up a 2-1 win over the Cubs in the most recent game of this series. The Guardians offense only had two more hits than the Cubs and struck out five times, but still picked up the win. Heading into the game, they were favored at -154 on the money line.
Jhonkensy Noel was the difference for the Guardians, as he homered twice, scored three times, and finished with two RBIs. Nico Hoerner had two hits and two RBIs for the Cubs.
Matthew Boyd got the start for the Guardians, going just 5 1/3 innings while giving up one hit and one earned run. He finished the game with six strikeouts but did not factor in the decision. Emmanuel Clase got the save.
Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago Cubs Prediction
Chicago is on the road today, and they are looking to snap a two-game losing streak, as they are 59-62 overall. The Cubs are 4th in the NL Central, trailing the Brewers by nine games. This year, they have gone just 17-26 in divisional games.
As the road underdog, the Cubs are 19-26 this season compared to 27-35 as the road underdog. Chicago has been good in closing out series, as their overall record is 15-20-3. Over the last 10 games, the Cubs have gone 6-4.
Chicago has been a solid run line bet on the road this season, going 36-26. The Cubs have a run line record of 59-62 overall, with an average run margin of +0.1 runs per game. They have been a profitable run line bet as an underdog, going 44-21, compared to just 15-41 as the favorite.
The Chicago Cubs are on the road today against the Cleveland Guardians, with the over/under line set at 8.5 runs. The Cubs’ games have averaged 8.4 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 53-64. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 15-13. Overall, 35 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, accounting for 28.9% of their games.
Jameson Taillon will be looking to build off his last outing, where he faced off against the White Sox and picked up the win. In that outing, he went 5 innings and gave up 5 earned runs. Looking at his overall numbers, Taillon has made 20 starts, and his record for the season is 8-6. The right-hander’s ERA is 3.50, along with a WHIP of 1.18. Opposing batters have a batting average of .247 off Taillon this season. Out of his 20 starts, Taillon has 11 quality starts and is averaging 7 strikeouts per nine innings.
Over his last seven games, Ian Happ has gone 7/27 with three homers and five RBIs. Happ is the Cubs’ leader in homers this season, but he is batting just .230. Happ is also on a five-game hitting streak. Nico Hoerner is batting .258 for the season and has gone deep five times. Isaac Paredes is 2nd on the team with 18 homers but is batting just .239.
For the season, the Cubs are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 20th in the league. Their team batting average of .236 is also 17th in the league. As a team, they are 17th in home runs and have the 10th best on-base percentage in the league.
Cleveland is hosting the Cubs today with an overall record of 71-49, and they lead the AL Central by 3.5 games over the Twins. The Guardians have won four straight games, and this comes after dropping six of their previous seven games. So far, they are 21-17 in divisional games.
As the home team, the Guardians have gone 37-20 this season, and they are 34-29 on the road. Cleveland has been really good as the favorite this season, going 49-25, and they are 22-24 as the underdog. Their overall series record is 22-11-5.
When betting the run line, the Cleveland Guardians have been a better play on the road this season, going 33-30 compared to 26-31 at home. They have an average run differential of 0.6 runs per game overall, with a slightly better mark at home (0.7) than on the road (0.6). The Guardians have been a better run line bet as the underdog, going 27-19 compared to 32-42 as the favorite. They have an average run differential of 3.3 in wins and -3.2 in losses.
The Cleveland Guardians are playing at home against the Chicago Cubs today. The over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The Guardians have played in 25 games this season with over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, and their record in those games is 17-15. Their games have averaged 8.6 runs per game this season, and their overall over/under record is 58-54.
Coming off of a loss in his first start of the season, Alex Cobb will be making his first start at home for the Guardians. In his first outing, Cobb went 4 2/3 innings, giving up 5 runs (4 earned) on 9 hits. He did strike out 9 batters, but also gave up a home run.
Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor have been the Guardians’ top power threats this season, with Ramirez leading the team with 31 homers (6th in MLB) and Naylor’s 26 long balls being the 10th most in the league. Ramirez’s 97 RBIs is also the 2nd most in the league. Over his last five games, Ramirez has gone 7/20 with four runs scored. Jhonkensy Noel has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 3/11 with three homers in his last four games.
As a team, the Guardians are averaging 4.6 runs per game and have been slightly better at home, where they are 7th in the league at 4.9 runs per contest. Overall, they are 13th in the league in team batting average and have the 10th most homers in the league. So far, they have been good at putting the ball in play, as they have the 4th fewest strikeouts in the league.
Our predicted final score for this one is 5-4 in favor of the Cubs, which means there is some good value in taking them on the money line at +113. Looking at the starting pitchers, we do have Alex Cobb finishing with more strikeouts than Jameson Taillon, but Cobb is also going to be giving up more runs.
If you’re looking for a prediction on the over/under, we would take the under at 8.5. Offensively, we actually have the Guardians finishing with more hits than the Cubs, but the Cubs are going to be hitting more home runs.
Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago Cubs Betting Tips
- We like the Cubs on the moneyline (+113)
- The Cubs are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Cleveland Guardians Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco | Out | Hip |
| Sam Hentges | Out | Shoulder |
| Shane Bieber | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Stephan | Out | Elbow |
| James Karinchak | Out | Shoulder |
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Yency Almonte | Out | Shoulder |
| Colten Brewer | Out | Hand |
| Tomás Nido | Out | Knee |
| Adbert Alzolay | Out | Forearm |
| Ben Brown | Out | Neck |
| Hayden Wesneski | Out | Forearm |
| Luke Little | Out | Shoulder |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Oblique |
