Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago Cubs Preview
Chicago comes into the game with the Guardians on a four-game winning streak, and the Cubs are the slight favorite on the money line today at -118. Cleveland has won two straight and is 1st in the AL Central with a record of 69-49, while the Cubs are 3rd in the NL Central at 59-60. Today’s over/under line is sitting at 8 runs, and the game will be televised on MARQ.
First pitch from Progressive Field is set for 6:40 PM ET, and the forecast for Monday’s interleague matchup calls for clear skies and temperatures in the low 70s. Ben Lively is starting for the Guardians, while the Cubs are sending Shota Imanaga to the mound.
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Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago Cubs Trends and Key Stats
- The Cubs are 3-2 across their last five road games. They have gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- In the Guardians’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 3-2 (SU) with 2-3 against the spread.
- The Cubs have a straight-up record of 5-5 in their last ten games as the favorite, with a runline record of 3-7.
- The Guardians have a 5-5 record vs. the runline and a 8-2 straight-up record in their last ten games as the underdog.
Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago Cubs Prediction
The Cubs’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the White Sox, closing out their series with a 3-1 win. After allowing one run to the White Sox in the 2nd inning, the Cubs responded with a run of their own. Chicago went on to add another two runs in the 5th inning.
Justin Steele put together a good start for the Cubs, going six innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just two walks and struck out eight White Sox batters. Chicago’s bullpen closed things out with Héctor Neris picking up the save.
Chicago is looking to get back to .500 today, as they are currently 59-60 overall. The Cubs have won four straight games, and they are nine games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. So far, they have gone just 17-26 in divisional games. Chicago’s series win vs. the White Sox got them above .500 for the year.
At home, the Cubs are 32-27 this year, and they are just below .500 at 27-33 on the road. As the favorite, the Cubs are 27-28 this year and 32-32 as the underdog. Chicago has won three straight games as the road favorite, and their overall series record is 15-20-3. They have won three straight series.
When betting the run line on the Chicago Cubs, it’s important to note that they have a run line record of 58-61 on the season. They have been a profitable team to bet on the run line on the road, going 35-25. They have been an underdog in 64 games, and they have gone 43-21 on the run line in those games.
The Chicago Cubs are on the road today against the Cleveland Guardians, with the over/under line set at 8 runs. The Cubs have a combined run average of 8.4 runs per game this season and their over/under record is 52-63 overall. When the over/under line has been set at 8 runs, the Cubs’ record is 5-14-1. So far this season, 52.1% of their games have had over/under lines set at more than 8 runs.
Chicago is sending Shota Imanaga to the mound today vs. the Guardians, and he comes into the game with a record of 9-2 and an ERA of 3.06. Imanaga has made 21 starts this year and has turned in 13 quality starts. In his last outing, he picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up two earned runs on 10 hits. Before that, he had gone three straight outings without taking a loss, finishing with a no-decision in each of those starts. Imanaga has been particularly good at home, with an ERA of 4.39 compared to 3.1 on the road.
For the season, the Cubs are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 20th in the MLB. As a team, they are batting just .236 and are 18th in home runs. However, the Cubs do have a good team on-base percentage and are 8th in walks. Ian Happ has a team-high 19 homers this season but is batting just .229, and Nico Hoerner is hitting .256 with five homers.
Dansby Swanson and Michael Busch have been swinging the bat well for the Cubs of late, with Swanson hitting .387 over his last nine games and Busch batting .300 with three homers in this stretch. Swanson also has a six-game hitting streak coming into the game.
The Guardians wrapped up their series vs. the Twins with a 5-3 win on the road. Cleveland was the slight favorite at -101 on the money line going into the game. It was a four-run 6th inning that turned things in their favor, and the Twins could only score two runs in the 8th to cut into the Guardians lead. Emmanuel Clase closed things out in the 9th, and the Guardians picked up the win.
Tanner Bibee put together a good start for the Guardians, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up just one earned run, and picking up the win. Cleveland’s offense was carried by José Ramírez, who went 2/5 with a homer and three RBIs.
Cleveland is hosting the Cubs today with an overall record of 69-49, good for 1st place in the AL Central. Currently, they lead the Twins by 3.5 games for the top spot in the division. The Guardians will be looking to pick up a win today and have won two straight games, closing out their series vs. the Twins with back-to-back wins.
So far, the Guardians have gone 21-17 in divisional games this season. At home, they are 35-20 and have gone 34-29 on the road. As the underdog, the Guardians are 21-24 this season and 48-25 when favored. Cleveland’s overall series record is 22-11-5, and they are 4-6 as the home underdog this year.
When the Guardians are at home, they are 25-30 against the run line this season. Their average run differential is +0.7 runs per game at home. In games they have won, their average run differential is +3.3 runs per game. They have failed to cover the run line in their last two home games.
The Cleveland Guardians have played 110 games this season with an average over/under line of 8 runs per game. Their over/under record is 57-53, and their combined run average is 8.5 runs per game. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, their record is 10-9-4. So far this season, 56 of their games have had over/under lines set above 8 runs, which accounts for 47.5% of their games.
Right-hander Ben Lively is getting the start for the Guardians today as he faces off against the Cubs. Lively has made 20 starts this season and has a record of 10-7 with a 3.59 ERA. In his 20 starts, he has turned in seven quality starts and is averaging 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Lively’s WHIP for the season is 1.17. In his last outing, he took the loss, giving up four earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts.
Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor have been the Guardians’ top power threats this season, as Ramirez’s 31 homers are 3rd in the league and Naylor’s 26 is 7th. Ramirez’s 97 RBIs are 2nd in the MLB, while Naylor is 5th with 85. However, both players have struggled at the plate of late, with Ramirez going 5/21 in his last five games and Naylor batting just .214 in his last four games.
As a team, the Guardians are averaging 4.6 runs per game and are 12th in the league in home runs. Cleveland is also one of the league’s best teams at avoiding strikeouts, averaging just 7 per game. Overall, they are batting .240, which is 16th in the majors.
Our prediction for this one is that the Guardians will pick up a 6-5 win over the Cubs. Given that the Guardians are the underdogs at +100, this is a great payout for a team that we have winning the game.
Looking at some of the starting pitcher projections, Ben Lively is projected to finish with four strikeouts, which is second worst among starters. As for Shota Imanaga, he is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which is ninth among starters.
Offensively, the Cubs are projected to finish with nine hits, compared to the Guardians with nine. However, the Cubs are projected to finish with the fifth-fewest runs in the league today.
Our recommended bet is to take the Guardians on the money line at +100.
Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago Cubs Betting Tips
- Take the Cubs on the moneyline
- The Guardians are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Cleveland Guardians Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco | Out | Hip |
| Matthew Boyd | Out | Elbow |
| Sam Hentges | Out | Shoulder |
| Shane Bieber | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Stephan | Out | Elbow |
| James Karinchak | Out | Shoulder |
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Yency Almonte | Out | Shoulder |
| Colten Brewer | Out | Hand |
| Tomás Nido | Out | Knee |
| Adbert Alzolay | Out | Forearm |
| Ben Brown | Out | Neck |
| Hayden Wesneski | Out | Forearm |
| Luke Little | Out | Shoulder |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Oblique |
