Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles Preview
From Progressive Field in Cleveland, we have the Orioles and Guardians facing off in an AL matchup. First pitch on Sunday is set for 1:40 PM ET, and the Orioles are the slight money line favorite, with their odds sitting at -140 compared to the Guardians at +119. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs.
Baltimore leads the AL East with a record of 66-46, while the Guardians are atop the AL Central at 67-43. MASN will be televising Sunday’s game, and the Orioles are starting Corbin Burnes, while the Guardians have Gavin Williams on the mound.
Check out BetCoco for Cleveland Guardians – Baltimore Orioles odds
Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles Trends and Key Stats
- Over the course of their previous five away games, the Orioles have recorded a 2-3 record, with a 1-4 performance on the runline.
- The Guardians, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 4-1 (SU) and 4-1 record.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Orioles have a straight-up record of 6-4 and a runline record of 5-5.
- When playing as the underdog, the Guardians have a 4-6 record against the runline and a 7-3 straight-up record in their last ten games.
Baltimore rallied for four runs in the 8th inning in the most recent game of this Orioles vs. Guardians series. The Orioles scored one run in the 1st inning but didn’t score another run until putting up four in the top of the 8th, picking up a 7-4 win. Heading into the game, the Orioles were favored at -117 on the money line.
Zach Eflin pitched well for the Orioles in this one, going 6 1/3 innings and giving up just two hits and two earned runs. He finished with three strikeouts but issued one walk. Yennier Cano got the save. Joey Cantillo had a rough outing for the Guardians, taking the loss after going just four innings and giving up three earned runs on six hits.
At the plate, the Orioles were led by Gunnar Henderson, who went 3/5 with two RBIs. Jackson Holliday also had a two-hit game and drove in a run. Jose Ramirez hit the game’s only home run for the Guardians, going 1/4 with two RBIs.
Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction
Baltimore is currently tied with the Yankees for the AL East lead, and they lead the division with an overall record of 66-46. The Orioles are 23-10 against other teams in the AL East. So far, they have gone 34-25 at home and 32-21 on the road.
As the favorite, the Orioles have gone 54-36 this year, and they are 23-14 as the favorite on the road. Baltimore’s overall series record is 22-10-3, and they are 5-5 in their last ten games overall.
The Orioles have been a solid bet on the run line this season, with a 60-52 record. They have been especially profitable on the road, going 31-22 against the run line. Their average run margin is +0.8 runs per game, and they have a +0.9 run differential on the road. They have been a .500 team against the run line as the favorite, but they have been a strong bet as the underdog, going 15-7.
The Orioles have been involved in high-scoring games this season, with a combined run average of 9.4 runs per game. Their over/under record is 62-40, and when the line is set at 8 runs, they are 13-5-3. Overall, 58.0% of their games have had an over/under line set at over 8 runs, and they are currently on a four-game over streak.
Corbin Burnes gets the start for the Orioles today as he faces the Guardians on the road. So far this season, he has made 22 starts and has a record of 11-4 with an ERA of 2.47. Burnes’ WHIP for the season is currently 1.04. In his last outing, Burnes went 6 2/3 innings, giving up two earned runs on four hits. He finished with seven strikeouts in that outing. Looking back further, he has made 18 quality starts this season and is averaging 8.31 strikeouts per nine innings. Burnes has been especially good on the road, coming in with a record of 5-2 and an ERA of 2.94.
So far this season, the Orioles have been the league’s best home run hitting team, and they are also near the top of the league in terms of runs scored, averaging 5.1 runs per game. Baltimore’s offense has been even better on the road, averaging 5.3 runs per contest. They also have the league’s top slugging percentage and are 2nd in OPS. The Orioles have been a very patient team at the plate, but they are just 17th in walks.
Anthony Santander and Gunnar Henderson have been the Orioles’ top home run threats this season, with Santander leading the team with 32 homers and Henderson sitting 2nd with 28. Santander has also been hot of late, going 10/31 in his last eight games with three homers. Colton Cowser has also been swinging a hot bat, going 12/32 in his last eight games, and he is currently on a 16-game hitting streak.
Cleveland is hosting the Orioles today with an overall record of 67-43, which has them leading the AL Central by 5.5 games. So far, they have gone 19-15 in divisional games. The Guardians are closing out their series vs. the Orioles today, leading the series 2-1.
As the favorite, the Guardians have gone 48-23 this year, and they are 19-20 as the underdog. Cleveland has been really good at home this year, going 35-16, and they are 32-27 on the road. Looking at their overall series record, the Guardians are 22-10-3 and have won two straight series.
While the Guardians have a run line record of 55-55, they have been slightly better at home with a 24-27 mark compared to 31-28 on the road. They have been a favorite in 71 games, going 32-39 against the run line, while they have been an underdog in 39 games, going 23-16. Their average run differential in winning games is +3.4, while it is -3.2 in losses.
Today’s over/under line of 8 runs is slightly below the Cleveland Guardians’ season average of 8.5 runs per game. The Guardians have hit the over in 53 of their 104 games this season, and when the line has been set at 8 runs, they have gone over in 8 of 19 games. Cleveland has been on a three-game over streak, and 47.3% of their games this season have had higher over/under lines than today’s line of 8 runs.
Gavin Williams is getting the start for the Guardians today and will be facing the Orioles at home. So far this season, he has made six starts and has a record of 1-3 with an ERA of 3.72. Williams’ WHIP for the season is 1.34, and opponents are batting .237 off him this year. In his last outing, Williams picked up the win, going five innings and not giving up a run to the Tigers. Before that, he had lost two straight starts. Williams has made one quality start this year and is averaging 9.62 strikeouts per nine innings.
Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor have been the Guardians’ top power threats this season, as Ramirez’s 29 homers are 4th in the league, and Naylor’s 23 is 10th in the MLB. Ramirez’s 93 RBIs are also the 2nd most in the league, while Naylor is 5th in this category. Naylor has been especially hot of late, batting .474 over his last five games, with a home run and five RBIs. Ramirez has also been swinging a hot bat, going 8/21 with five homers over his last six games.
As a team, the Guardians are averaging 4.7 runs per game and are one of the league’s best teams at avoiding strikeouts. Overall, they are 13th in batting average and 12th in home runs. So far, they have been a better offensive team at home, averaging 4.9 runs per game.
Our prediction for this Orioles vs. Guardians matchup is to take the Guardians on the money line at +119. We actually have the Guardians winning this one 6-5, so there is also some value on the over, as the line is currently sitting at 8 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Gavin Williams is predicted to finish with six strikeouts, and he has the Orioles finishing with eight strikeouts. As for Corbin Burnes, we have him finishing with six K’s as well, and he is projected to finish with five hits allowed.
Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips
- Take the Orioles on the moneyline
- The Guardians are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Cleveland Guardians Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Out | Hip |
| Matthew Boyd | Out | Elbow |
| Sam Hentges | Out | Shoulder |
| Shane Bieber | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Stephan | Out | Elbow |
| James Karinchak | Out | Shoulder |
| Tanner Bibee | Questionable | Knee |
Baltimore Orioles Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Coulombe | Out | Elbow |
| Jorge Mateo | Out | Elbow |
| Tyler Wells | Out | Elbow |
| John Means | Out | Elbow |
| Kyle Bradish | Out | Elbow |
| Alexis Cruz | Out | Personal |
| Jordan Westburg | Out | Hand |
| Christopher Ramirez | Out | Personal |
| Isaiah Kearns | Out | Personal |
| Félix Bautista | Out | Elbow |
