Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles Preview
From Progressive Field in Cleveland, we have the Orioles and Guardians facing off in an AL matchup. This one gets started at 7:15 PM ET and will be televised on FOX. The Guardians are the slight favorites on the money line (+111), while the Orioles are at -131.
Baltimore comes in with a record of 65-46 and they are 1st in the AL East. However, they have lost two straight. Cleveland is on a five-game winning streak and is 1st in the AL Central with an overall record of 67-42. Saturday’s forecast in Cleveland calls for light rain and temperatures in the mid-70s.
Check out BetCoco for Cleveland Guardians – Baltimore Orioles odds
Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles Trends and Key Stats
- The Orioles are 1-4 across their last five road games. They have gone 0-5 vs. the runline.
- Conversely, the Guardians have achieved a 4-1 (SU) record and 4-1 record in their last five home games.
- The Orioles have a straight-up record of 5-5 in their last ten games as the favorite, with a runline record of 4-6.
- When playing as the underdog, the Guardians have gone 4-6 against the runline, with a straight-up record of 7-3 over their last ten games.
Cleveland picked up an 8-4 win over the Orioles in the most recent game of this series. The Guardians had a huge 2nd inning, scoring eight of their nine runs. As for the Orioles, they scored their only four runs in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Guardians were at -101 on the money line.
Carlos Carrasco only went 4 1/3 innings for the Guardians but gave up just one hit and one earned run. He finished the game with five strikeouts but issued four walks. Cade Smith got the win out of the bullpen. Dean Kremer struggled on the mound for the Orioles, giving up four earned runs in five innings of work.
Josh Naylor had a three-hit game for Cleveland, scoring twice and driving in two runs. Brayan Rocchio and Austin Hedges each had two RBIs. Jackson Holliday had a two-hit game for the Orioles.
Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction
The Orioles are currently 1st in the AL East, sharing the division lead with the Yankees. Overall, the Orioles are 65-46, but they have dropped two straight games heading into today’s road matchup vs. the Guardians. So far, they have gone 23-10 against other teams in the AL East.
At home, the Orioles have gone 34-25 this year, and they are 31-21 on the road. This season, the Orioles have been good as the favorite, going 53-36 and 12-10 as the underdog. As for their overall series record, the Orioles are 22-10-3 this year.
When betting the run line, the Orioles have been a better bet on the road than at home, going 30-22 on the road compared to 29-30 at home. They have a run line record of 59-52 overall, with an average run margin of 0.7 runs per game. They have been the favorite in 89 games and the underdog in 22, going 44-45 as the favorite and 15-7 as the underdog.
The Orioles have been involved in high-scoring games this season, as their combined run average is 9.4. Their over/under record is 61-40, and they have gone over the total in three straight games. When the over/under line is set at 9 runs, their record is 13-11-3. The average over/under line in their games this season is 8 runs, and only 4.5% of their games have had lines set at 9 runs or higher.
Zach Eflin gets the start for the Orioles today as he faces the Guardians on the road. So far this season, he has made 20 starts and has a record of 6-7 with an ERA of 4.11. Eflin’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.19. In his last outing, Eflin picked up the win, going six innings and giving up three earned runs on 10 hits. He has made seven quality starts this year and is averaging 7.29 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back over his last four outings, Eflin has alternated between a win and a loss.
As a team, the Orioles are the top home run hitting team in the league and are also 3rd in runs scored, averaging 5 runs per game. Not only are they the top home run hitting team in the league, but they also lead the MLB in slugging percentage and have the best isolated power numbers in the league. Baltimore has been even better on the road this season, averaging 5.2 runs per game.
Anthony Santander has been a big power threat for the Orioles this season, as his 32 home runs are 3rd in the league and the top mark on the team. He is also 7th in the league with 75 RBIs. Over his last eight games, Santander has three homers while going 8/29 (.276). Colton Cowser has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 12/33 with two homers in his last eight games.
Cleveland is hosting the Orioles today with an overall record of 67-42, which has them leading the AL Central by six games over the Royals. The Guardians have won five straight games, and they are 8-2 across their last 10. This season, they have gone 35-15 at home and 32-27 on the road.
As the home underdog, the Guardians have gone 4-2 this year, and they are 19-19 as the underdog overall. Cleveland’s series record is 22-10-3 this year, and they have won two straight series. Their overall series record is 22-10-3.
When playing at home, the Cleveland Guardians have a run line record of 24-26, and their average run margin in those games is 1.1. They are 2-0 against the run line in their last two home games and 23-15 as the underdog overall.
The Cleveland Guardians are playing host to the Baltimore Orioles today, with the over/under line set at 9 runs. The combined run average for Guardians games this season is 8.5, and their over/under record is 52-51. Their average over/under line for the season is 8 runs, and their over/under record when the line is set at 9 runs is 7-9-2. In total, only 5.5% of their games have had over/under lines set at 9 runs or higher, with 78.0% of their games having lower lines. The over has hit in their last two games.
Joey Cantillo will be making his first start of the season at home against the Orioles. In his first start of the year, Cantillo went 3 1/3 innings, giving up 3 earned runs on 4 hits. He did strike out 3 batters but also gave up a pair of home runs.
Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor have been a strong 1-2 punch for the Guardians this season, as Ramirez’s 91 RBIs are 2nd in the league, and Naylor’s 77 RBIs are 6th. Ramirez also leads the team with 28 homers, which is 5th in the league. Both players have been swinging the bat well of late, with Ramirez going 7/17 in his last five games, and Naylor going 8/15 in his last four games.
As a team, the Guardians are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 11th in the league. They are also among the league leaders in team batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS. Cleveland comes into the game as one of the best teams in the league at avoiding strikeouts, averaging just seven per contest.
With the Guardians at +111 on the money line, this is a great payout for a team we have winning 6-4. There is a lot of value in taking the Guardians to win straight up, as opposed to the Orioles, who are at -131.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Joey Cantillo actually has a better chance of picking up a win than Zach Eflin. However, Cantillo does have a lower strikeout projection than Eflin, but we still like the Guardians to come out on top.
Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Tips
- Take the Orioles on the moneyline
- On the run line we like Guardians (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 10 runs, we like the over
Cleveland Guardians Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Out | Hip |
| Matthew Boyd | Out | Elbow |
| Sam Hentges | Out | Shoulder |
| Shane Bieber | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Stephan | Out | Elbow |
| James Karinchak | Out | Shoulder |
| Tanner Bibee | Questionable | Knee |
Baltimore Orioles Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Coulombe | Out | Elbow |
| Jorge Mateo | Out | Elbow |
| Tyler Wells | Out | Elbow |
| John Means | Out | Elbow |
| Kyle Bradish | Out | Elbow |
| Alexis Cruz | Out | Personal |
| Jordan Westburg | Out | Hand |
| Christopher Ramirez | Out | Personal |
| Isaiah Kearns | Out | Personal |
| Félix Bautista | Out | Elbow |
