Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks Preview
At Progressive Field in Cleveland, we have an interleague matchup between the Diamondbacks and Guardians. The Guardians are the slight money line favorite, with their odds sitting at +105 compared to the Diamondbacks at -123. Tonight’s over/under line is at 8.5 runs, and the game will be televised on BSGL.
First pitch for this one is set for 6:40 PM ET, and the Guardians will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak. They are 67-44 and in first place in the AL Central. The Diamondbacks are 3rd in the NL West with a record of 60-52. Monday’s forecast in Cleveland calls for light rain and temperatures in the low 80s.
Check out BetCoco for Cleveland Guardians – Arizona Diamondbacks odds
Cleveland Guardians vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Trends and Key Stats
- 4-1 is the record of Diamondbacks in their last five road games. They have also gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Guardians have a 4-1 (SU) record, along with a 4-1 record in their last five home contests.
- Looking back on their last ten games as the favorite, the Diamondbacks are 8-2 straight-up and 4-6 vs. the runline.
- The Guardians have a 4-6 record vs. the runline and a 7-3 straight-up record in their last ten games as the underdog.
Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction
Heading into their last game vs. the Pirates, the Diamondbacks closed out the series with a 6-5 win. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at +139. It was a big 6th inning for the Diamondbacks, as they scored three runs to take the lead, and they added another three runs in the 7th to close things out. Arizona’s offense was carried by Joc Pederson, who went 2/5 with a homer and three RBIs.
Ryne Nelson got the start for the Diamondbacks, going five innings and giving up four runs on six hits. He also issued two walks and took the loss. Paul Sewald picked up the win out of the bullpen, and A.J. Puk got the save.
Arizona is 60-52 overall this season, and they trail the Dodgers by five games in the NL West. The Diamondbacks are 3rd in the division and just picked up a game on the Padres, who are 2nd in the division and a half-game ahead of them. Arizona has gone 19-14 in division games this year.
At home, the Diamondbacks have gone 31-25 this season, and they are just above .500 at 29-27 on the road. Arizona has won four straight games as the favorite, and they are 32-20 when favored this year. As the underdog, the Diamondbacks are 28-32.
Arizona is 57-55 against the run line this season, and the Diamondbacks have been a profitable team to back on the run line on the road, where they are 32-24. They have a positive run differential both at home and on the road, but they have been a better bet on the run line as an underdog, going 36-24. Their average run differential in winning games is +4.2, while it is -3.9 in losses.
Arizona is 22-15 when the O/U line is set at 8.5 runs, and the Diamondbacks have a combined run average of 9.9 runs per game. Their games have gone over the total 61 times and under 48 times this season, and their games have had an average O/U line of 9 runs. Today’s O/U line is set at 8.5 runs, and 38.4% of their games have had higher O/U lines than that this season.
Zac Gallen gets the start for the Diamondbacks today as he faces the Guardians on the road. He has made 18 starts this season and has a record of 9-5 with a 3.56 ERA. Gallen’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.25. In his last outing, he went six innings, giving up just one earned run and picking up the win. Looking back over his last three starts, Gallen has picked up the win in each outing. Opponents are batting .235 this season off Gallen, and he has a total of nine quality starts.
Arizona comes into the game as one of the league’s best offensive teams, averaging 5.1 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. The Diamondbacks have been one of the league’s top home run hitting teams this season, and they also have a collective batting average of .258, which is 4th in the MLB.
Over his last 10 games, Ketel Marte has been on fire, going 14/38 with six homers and 16 RBIs. This has helped him move into the team lead in batting average and RBIs. Marte also comes into the game on a six-game hitting streak. Overall, his 27 homers is 6th in the league, and his 77 RBIs is 8th.
The Guardians wrapped up their series vs. the Orioles with a 9-5 loss. Cleveland was the +111 underdog at home going into this matchup. Things started off well for the Guardians, as they got on the board with a run in the 1st inning but gave up the lead right away as the Orioles scored a run in the top of the first.
Gavin Williams got the start for the Guardians and took the loss. He only lasted four innings, giving up six earned runs on eight hits. Josh Naylor had only one hit, but it was a home run, and Steven Kwan had a good day at the plate, going 2/3 with three RBIs.
Cleveland is hosting the Diamondbacks today with an overall record of 67-44, good for a 4.5-game lead in the AL Central. The Guardians dropped the final two games of their series vs. the Orioles and are 6-4 across their last 10 games. At home, the Guardians are 35-17 this season.
So far, the Guardians have gone 19-21 as the underdog, and they are 48-23 when favored this year. Looking at their overall series record, the Guardians are 22-10-4 and have won two straight series on the road. As the home underdog, the Guardians have gone 4-4 this year.
When the Guardians win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.4 runs per game. However, when they lose, they lose by an average of 3.2 runs. They are 55-56 on the run line this season, including a 24-28 mark at home. Their overall run line record is 55-56, and they have covered the run line in 31 of 59 road games.
Today’s over/under line of 8.5 runs for the Cleveland Guardians’ home game against the Arizona Diamondbacks is slightly higher than their combined run average of 8.6 runs per game. The Guardians have gone over the total in 54 of their 105 games this season, and they have a 15-13 record when the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. Cleveland’s games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs, and their current over streak is at four games.
Left-hander Logan Allen gets the start for the Guardians today as he faces the Diamondbacks at home. Allen has made 18 starts this season and has a record of 8-4 with a 5.67 ERA. So far, he has turned in five quality starts and is averaging 7.83 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Allen finished with a no-decision, going 4 1/3 innings and giving up two earned runs on nine hits. Before that, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight starts. Allen’s ERA at home is 8.33 compared to 7.99 on the road.
Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor have been the driving forces behind the Guardians’ offense this season, as Ramirez’s 93 RBIs are 2nd in the league, and Naylor’s 80 RBIs are 5th. Ramirez also has a team-high 29 homers, which is 4th in the MLB. Naylor has been hot of late, going 8/19 with two homers in his last five games, while Ramirez is also swinging the bat well, hitting .316 in that stretch.
As a team, the Guardians are averaging 4.7 runs per game and are one of the league’s top home run hitting teams. Overall, they are 12th in scoring and 13th in batting average. Cleveland’s offense has been tough to strike out this season, but they are just 21st in walks.
With the Guardians at +105 on the money line, that is the direction we recommend going for this Diamondbacks vs. Guardians matchup. We have the Guardians winning this one by a final score of 7-6.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Zac Gallen finishing with more strikeouts than Logan Allen. However, we have Allen finishing with a lower ERA and picking up the win for the Guardians.
Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Tips
- Take the Diamondbacks on the moneyline
- On the run line we like Guardians (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 13 runs, we like the over
Cleveland Guardians Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Out | Hip |
| Matthew Boyd | Out | Elbow |
| Sam Hentges | Out | Shoulder |
| Shane Bieber | Out | Elbow |
| Trevor Stephan | Out | Elbow |
| James Karinchak | Out | Shoulder |
| Tanner Bibee | Questionable | Knee |
Arizona Diamondbacks Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Out | Shoulder |
| Christian Walker | Out | Oblique |
| Merrill Kelly | Out | Shoulder |
| Kyle Nelson | Out | Shoulder |
| Drey Jameson | Out | Elbow |
| Blake Walston | Out | Elbow |
| Bryce Jarvis | Out | Elbow |
| Andrew Saalfrank | Out | Suspension |
