Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Preview
Both the Cardinals and Reds will send a pitcher to the mound on Wednesday, with the Cardinals starting Andre Pallante and the Reds going with Frankie Montas. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is set for 1:10 PM ET. BSOH is carrying this one on TV.
Currently, the Reds are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -123 compared to the Cardinals at +103. The over/under line is at 9.5 runs, and this NL Central matchup has the Reds as the 5th place team, while the Cardinals are 3rd with a record of 26-27.
Check out BetCoco for Cincinnati Reds – St. Louis Cardinals odds
Cincinnati Reds Trends and Key Stats
- 3-2 is the record of Cardinals in their last five road games. They have also gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- The Reds, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 1-4 (SU) and 3-2 record.
- Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Reds have a straight-up record of 6-4, while going 6-4 against the runline.
- Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Cardinals have a 7-3 straight-up record and a 7-3 record vs. the runline.
Thanks to a three-run 7th inning for the Cardinals’ offense, they cruised to a 7-1 win over the Reds in the most recent game of this series. Heading into the game, the Cardinals were at +110 on the money line.
The starting pitching matchup for this game featured Kyle Gibson for the Cardinals, and he went six innings while giving up just one hit and one earned run. Gibson finished the game with six strikeouts but issued two walks. On the other side, Andrew Abbott got the start for the Reds and went six innings, giving up six runs on seven hits.
St. Louis got on the board first with one run in the 3rd inning, and they added two more in the 4th. As for the Reds, their only run came in the 6th. The Cardinals put the game out of reach with three more runs in the 7th.
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction
St. Louis is 26-27 overall this season, and they are 4.5 games behind the Brewers for the NL Central lead. So far, they have gone just 4-7 in divisional games. The Cardinals will be on the road today, facing the Reds with an overall road record of 13-15.
The Cardinals have won four straight games as the favorite, and they are 14-13 when favored this year. As the underdog, St. Louis is 12-14 this season. They come into today’s game having won four straight series, and their overall series record is 9-8.
When the Cardinals win, they do so by an average of 2.6 runs per game. In their losses, they lose by an average of 3.9 runs per game. Overall, they are 26-27 against the run line this season. As the favorite, they are 10-17 against the run line, while as the underdog, they are 16-10.
The St. Louis Cardinals are on the road today against the Cincinnati Reds, with the over/under line set at 9.5 runs. The combined run average for Cardinals games this season is 8.5 runs, and their over/under record is 24-27. The average over/under line for Cardinals games is 8 runs, and when the line is set at 9.5 runs, their record is 1-2. Only 1.9% of their games this season have had over/under lines set at 9.5 runs, with the majority of their games (92.5%) having lower lines. The under has hit in their last three games.
Right-hander Andre Pallante is getting the start for the Cardinals today as he faces the Reds on the road. He has made nine appearances this season and has a record of 0-1 with a 6.30 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting .286 off Pallante this season. The last time he took the mound was on April 20th, where he went three innings out of the bullpen, giving up two earned runs, five hits, and one homer. Pallante finished with a no-decision in that outing. Per nine innings, he has 4.5 walks compared to 5.4 strikeouts.
So far this season, the Cardinals have been one of the worst offensive teams in the league, averaging just 3.9 runs per game, which is 25th in the MLB. They have been slightly better at home, averaging 4.1 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .235, which is 15th in the league, and have the 20th ranked slugging percentage in the league. St. Louis’ team isolated power of .132 is also one of the worst marks in the league.
Paul Goldschmidt has been on a tear for the Cardinals, going 9/25 with three homers over his last six games. For the season, he is batting just .228, but his seven homers is the 2nd best mark on the team. Nolan Gorman leads the team with nine homers but is batting just .214.
Cincinnati is 5th in the NL Central, trailing the Brewers by 7.5 games. Overall, the Reds are 24-31 and are 2-3 in divisional games this year. The Reds are looking to pick up a win today, as they are just below .500 at home with a record of 14-16.
The Reds have dropped five of their last six games at home, and they are just 5-5 overall in their last ten. As the underdog, the Reds have won three straight, and they are 13-20 as the underdog this year. So far, they are 11-11 as the favorite.
The Reds have been a solid run line bet overall this season, going 29-26. They have been especially good on the road, where they are 16-9 against the run line. The Reds have been an underdog in 33 games and have gone 19-14 against the run line in those contests.
The Reds have been playing in low-scoring games this season, with their combined run average at 8.3, and their over/under record sitting at 25-28. However, when the line has been set at 9.5 runs, the over has hit at a 10-4 clip. Despite this, the over/under line has been set at 9.5 runs in just 3.6% of their games this season, with the line usually set lower at 9 runs. Their current under streak is at 4 games.
Right-hander Frankie Montas gets the start for the Reds today as he faces the Cardinals at home. He has made nine starts this season and has a record of 2-3 with an ERA of 4.61. Montas has made two quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he gave up four earned runs in six innings of work. In that outing vs. the Padres, he gave up three walks and one homer. Montas has not taken a loss in his last three outings, finishing with a no-decision in each.
So far this season, the Reds offense has been one of the worst in the league, averaging just 4.1 runs per game (21st) and batting a collective .216 (24th). They are also near the bottom of the league in most other offensive categories, including OPS, OBP, and slugging. One of the few things they have done well is draw walks, as they are 8th in the league in that category.
Spencer Steer and Will Benson have been two of the Reds’ top home run threats this season, but both players are batting below .230 for the season. Steer has gone 5/21 in his last six games with two homers, while Benson has also gone deep twice in his last five games, batting .333 in that stretch. Elly De La Cruz comes into the game with a team-leading nine homers and is batting .245.
There is a lot of value on the money line in this Reds vs. Cardinals matchup, and we have the Reds picking up a 5-4 win. At -123, the Reds have an implied win probability of 55.2%, and we have them at 55%.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Frankie Montas is a good option to pick up a win, and he is also projected to finish with five strikeouts. As for the Cardinals, they are projected to finish with eight hits compared to the Reds with eight.
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips
- Take the Reds on the moneyline
- The Reds should also cover at +1.5
- Our MLB model projects 9 runs, and we suggest taking the under
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Wilson | Out | Shoulder |
| Emilio Pagán | Out | Triceps |
| TJ Friedl | Out | Thumb |
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Noelvi Marte | Out | Suspension |
| Brandon Williamson | Out | Shoulder |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
St. Louis Cardinals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Matz | Out | Back |
| Willson Contreras | Out | Forearm |
| Keynan Middleton | Out | Forearm |
| Giovanny Gallegos | Out | Shoulder |
| Tommy Edman | Out | Wrist |
| Drew Rom | Out | Biceps |
| Riley O’Brien | Out | Forearm |
| Nick Robertson | Out | Elbow |
