Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Preview
Both the Reds and Cardinals will be looking to pick up a win in tonight’s NL Central matchup, as the Reds are favored on the money line (-124), while the Cardinals have a line of +105. The money line odds for a Reds win are sitting at -124, while the over/under line is at 9.5 runs.
First pitch from Great American Ball Park is set for 6:40 PM ET, and BSOH is carrying the game on TV. Kyle Gibson is starting for the Cardinals, and they are 3rd in the NL Central, while the Reds have Andrew Abbott on the mound. They are 5th in the NL Central, and Abbott will be looking to keep his team’s four-game winning streak alive.
Check out BetCoco for Cincinnati Reds – St. Louis Cardinals odds
Cincinnati Reds Trends and Key Stats
- 3-2 is the record of Cardinals in their last five road games. They have also gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- Conversely, the Reds have achieved a 1-4 (SU) record and 3-2 record in their last five home games.
- Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Reds have a straight-up record of 7-3, while going 7-3 against the runline.
- The Cardinals have a 6-4 straight-up record and a 6-4 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.
Cincinnati picked up a 3-1 win over the Cardinals in the most recent game of this series. The Reds had a two-run 2nd inning and added an insurance run in the 5th. As for the Cardinals, they scored their only run in the 1st. Heading into the game, the Reds were favored at -160 on the money line.
Nick Lodolo got the win for the Reds, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with three strikeouts but issued five walks. As for the Cardinals, Lance Lynn gave up just one run in six innings of work.
Jeimer Candelario was the only Reds hitter to have more than one hit, as he went 1/3 with a home run. Paul Goldschmidt hit the only home run for the Cardinals, going 1/4.
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction
St. Louis is 25-27 overall heading into today’s road matchup vs. the Reds. The Cardinals are 3rd in the NL Central and trail the Brewers by 5.5 games. So far, they have gone just 3-7 in divisional games. The Cardinals have dropped two straight games, and these two losses have come by way of the Reds taking the first game of this series.
At home, the Cardinals have gone 13-12 this year and are just under .500 at 12-15 on the road. St. Louis has won four straight series, and their overall series record is 9-8 this year. As the road underdog, the Cardinals are 7-11 compared to 14-13 as the favorite overall.
When betting the run line on the Cardinals, it’s best to fade them as the favorite, as they are just 10-17 against the run line in those games. They have been a much better bet as the underdog, going 15-10. Their overall run line record is 25-27, and their average run margin is -0.8 runs per game.
The St. Louis Cardinals are on the road against the Cincinnati Reds today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 9.5 runs. The combined run average in Cardinals games this season is 8.6, and their over/under record is 24-26. When the over/under line is set at 9.5 runs, the Cardinals have a 1-1 record, and only 1.9% of their games have had higher lines than 9.5 runs. The under has hit in their last two games.
Right-hander Kyle Gibson gets the start for the Cardinals today as he faces the Reds on the road. He has made 10 starts this season and has a record of 3-2 with a 3.81 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Gibson has a WHIP of 1.27 and opponents are batting .240 this season. In his 10 starts, he has turned in five quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he gave up three earned runs in four innings of work. Gibson finished with a no-decision in that outing. Before that, he had won two straight starts.
St. Louis has struggled to score runs this season, as they are averaging just 3.9 runs per game, which is the worst mark in the league. They are also near the bottom of the league in both home runs and slugging percentage. However, the Cardinals do have a few hitters who have been swinging the bat well of late, including Alec Burleson, who is hitting .387 over his last eight games.
Paul Goldschmidt is one of the league’s top home run hitters this season, but he is batting just .222 overall. Goldschmidt has been swinging the bat better of late, going 9/34 with three homers in his last eight games. He is also on a five-game hitting streak. Brendan Donovan leads the team with 25 RBIs but is batting just .228 for the season.
Cincinnati is hosting the Cardinals today with an overall record of 24-30, which is good for 5th place in the NL Central. The Reds are 7.5 games behind the Brewers for the division lead, and they are 2-2 in divisional matchups this year. Cincinnati has won four straight games, and their home record is 14-15 compared to 10-15 on the road.
As the home favorite, the Reds have gone 8-9 this year and 13-20 as the underdog. Cincinnati’s overall series record is 5-11-1, and they are 5-5 in their last ten games overall. So far, they have been able to take the first game of this series vs. the Cardinals.
The Reds have been a solid team to bet on the run line this season, going 29-25 overall. They are 13-16 against the run line at home, but have been much better on the road, going 16-9. Their average run margin for the season is exactly zero, and they have been a better bet as the underdog, going 19-14 against the run line.
The Cincinnati Reds are at home today against the St. Louis Cardinals, and the over/under line for the game is set at 9.5 runs. The Reds have a combined run average of 8.3 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 25-27. Their average over/under line for the season is 9 runs per game. When the over/under line is set at 9.5 runs, their record is 10-3. So far this season, only 3.7% of their games have had over/under lines set at 9.5 runs or higher. Their current under streak is at 3 games.
Cincinnati is sending left-hander Andrew Abbott to the mound today vs. the Cardinals. He has made 10 starts this year and has a record of 3-4 with an ERA of 2.68. So far, Abbott has turned in four quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he didn’t allow a run. In that May 21st start vs. the Padres, he went seven innings, giving up just two hits and one walk. Abbott finished with six strikeouts in that outing. This year, he has allowed a total of nine home runs. Per nine innings, Abbott is averaging 6.79 strikeouts and 2.37 walks.
Spencer Steer has been one of the Reds’ most consistent hitters this season, batting .231 with six homers and 35 RBIs. He is also on a six-game hitting streak and has gone 6/21 (.286) in his last six games with two homers and four RBIs. Elly De La Cruz is also on a nice stretch of play, going 4/14 in his last four games with two homers. For the season, he is batting .245 with a team-high nine homers.
As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.1 runs per game, which is 21st in the league. Their team batting average of .217 is 25th in the league, and they are also near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. Currently, they have the 11th most home runs in the league.
We see the Reds taking this one at home by a score of 5-4. Given that they are at -124 on the money line, this is the bet we recommend making. Offensively, we have the Reds finishing with nine hits compared to the Cardinals with nine.
Looking at today’s starters, Kyle Gibson is projected to finish with five strikeouts compared to Andrew Abbott with six. However, we have Abbott going longer in this one, as Gibson is projected to last just 5.1 innings.
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips
- Take the Reds on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Cardinals (+1.5)
- Our MLB model projects 9 runs, and we suggest taking the under
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Wilson | Out | Shoulder |
| Emilio Pagán | Out | Triceps |
| Alex Young | Out | Back |
| TJ Friedl | Out | Thumb |
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Noelvi Marte | Out | Suspension |
| Brandon Williamson | Out | Shoulder |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
St. Louis Cardinals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Matz | Out | Back |
| Willson Contreras | Out | Forearm |
| Keynan Middleton | Out | Forearm |
| Giovanny Gallegos | Out | Shoulder |
| Tommy Edman | Out | Wrist |
| Drew Rom | Out | Biceps |
| Riley O’Brien | Out | Forearm |
| Lars Nootbaar | Questionable | Hamstring |
| Nick Robertson | Out | Elbow |
