Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres Preview
Joe Musgrove will start for the Padres on Tuesday, as they are facing the Reds and Andrew Abbott. The forecast for the game calls for temperatures in the mid-80s and partly cloudy skies. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is set for 6:40 PM ET.
San Diego is 25-25 and is 2nd in the NL West, while the Reds are 19-28 and have won three straight. Cincinnati is the slight underdog on the money line (+101), and the over/under line is currently at 9.5 runs.
Check out BetCoco for Cincinnati Reds – San Diego Padres odds
Cincinnati Reds Trends and Key Stats
- 4-1 is the record of Padres in their last five road games. They have also gone 4-1 vs. the runline.
- On the other side, the Reds have gone 1-4 (SU) and 3-2 in their previous five home contests.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Padres have a straight-up record of 6-4 and a runline record of 6-4.
- The Reds have a 7-3 record vs. the runline and a 7-3 straight-up record in their last ten games as the underdog.
Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres Prediction
Led by a big game by Luis Arraez at the plate, the Padres are coming off a 3-0 loss to the Braves. Arraez went 2/4 with a double and scored the Braves’ only run. The Padres really struggled to get anything going offensively, as they only had seven hits and didnjson’t score a run.
Randy Vasquez got the start for the Padres and took the loss. He only lasted six innings, giving up three earned runs on 10 hits. The Padres also didn’t have a single player with more than one RBI.
The Padres will be on the road today vs. the Reds with an even 25-25 record through 50 games. They are 8.0 games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. So far, they are 12-13 in divisional matchups. San Diego’s overall record is 9-6-2 in series this year, and they have won three straight series on the road.
At home, the Padres are just 10-16 this year but have been much better on the road at 15-9. San Diego closed out their series vs. the Braves with three straight wins, and they are 5-5 over their last 10 games. As the favorite, the Padres are 14-14 this year and 11-11 when they have been the underdog.
Despite a run differential of +0.2 runs per game overall, the Padres have been a profitable run-line team this season, going 27-23. They have been especially good on the run line on the road, where they are 19-5. They have been a good run-line bet as an underdog, going 15-7, but have struggled to cover the run line at home, going just 8-18.
San Diego Padres games have gone over the over/under line in 26 of 49 games this season. The average over/under line in their games is 8 runs, but today’s line is 9.5 runs. The Padres have played just three games with a higher over/under line than today’s and the over/under record in those games is 1-1. Their games have averaged 8.9 runs per game this season.
Right-hander Joe Musgrove gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Reds on the road. Through eight starts, Musgrove has a record of 3-3 and an ERA of 6.37. Looking at his overall numbers, Musgrove has a WHIP of 1.51 and has issued just 2.85 walks per nine innings. Musgrove has made four quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he went six innings, giving up two earned runs, and finished with nine strikeouts. In that outing, he didn’t give up a homer. Musgrove has allowed a total of 10 homers this year.
Heading into today’s game, Jurickson Profar and Jake Cronenworth are both among the league leaders in RBIs, with Cronenworth’s 32 RBIs leading the Padres. Profar is also 2nd on the team with seven homers, while Cronenworth’s eight home runs is the best mark on the team and 9th in the league. Profar has been hot of late, going 9/20 in his last five games. Luis Arraez has also been swinging a good bat, going 8/19 in his last four games.
San Diego’s offense has been solid this season, averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 12th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .257, which is 4th in the league, and are also among the league leaders in on-base percentage and slugging.
The Reds will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Dodgers with a 3-2 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 7th inning before the Dodgers scored a run in the bottom of the 7th to tie things up. Cincinnati was the +147 underdog going into this road game.
Hunter Greene put together a good start for the Reds, going 6 1/3 innings and giving up just two earned runs, and striking out eight. However, the Reds couldnjson’t close things out, and Alexis Diaz took the loss out of the bullpen. The Reds also wasted a big game from Stuart Fairchild, who went 2/4 with a run scored.
Cincinnati will host the Padres with an overall record of 19-28, which has them 5th in the NL Central. So far, they are 8.0 games behind the Brewers for the division lead. The Reds head into today’s game having lost three straight games, and they dropped three of four in their series vs. the Dodgers.
At home, the Reds are 9-13 this year and 10-15 on the road. As the underdog, the Reds are 9-18 this year, and they are an even 10-10 when favored. Cincinnati’s overall series record is 4-10-1, and they have dropped seven straight series.
The Reds have been a better bet on the run line when they are the underdog, going 15-12 on the run line in those games. They have also been a good bet on the run line on the road, going 16-9 on the run line away from home.
Despite the Reds’ recent under streak, the over/under line for their games has been set at 9.5 runs for just 9 of their 45 games this season. Their games have averaged 8.4 runs per game, and their over/under record is 22-23 on the season. Their games have gone over the line in 8 of the 9 games with a 9.5 run line, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs per game.
Left-hander Andrew Abbott gets the start for the Reds today as he faces the Padres at home. So far, he has made nine starts and has a record of 2-4 with a 3.06 ERA. Abbott’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.14. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, going seven innings and giving up just one earned run on four hits. Before that, he had lost two straight starts. Abbott has given up a homer in three straight outings. This year, he has three quality starts and is averaging 7.38 strikeouts per nine innings.
Stuart Fairchild has been swinging a hot bat of late for the Reds, going 6/14 in his last eight games, including two home runs. He also has a four-game hitting streak coming into today’s game. Tyler Stephenson has also been hitting the ball well, going 12/29 over his last 10 games. For the season, Elly De La Cruz is batting .256 and has a team-high nine homers.
Overall, the Reds are 19th in scoring at 4.1 runs per game. They have been one of the league’s worst hitting teams this season, with a team batting average of just .217. As a team, they are 15th in home runs and have the 12th most walks in the league. Currently, they are 25th in OPS and have a collective on-base percentage of just .294.
Our predicted score for this game is 5-4 in favor of the Reds, and with the Reds at +101 on the money line, we see this as a great value pick. Looking at the starting pitchers, Joe Musgrove is projected to finish with six strikeouts, while Andrew Abbott is projected to finish with five.
If you’re looking for a prediction on the over/under, we would take the under at 9.5. However, we see the Reds picking up the win as a much better bet.
Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres Betting Tips
- We like the Reds on the moneyline (+101)
- On the run line we like Reds (+1.5)
- Our MLB model projects 9 runs, and we suggest taking the under
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Wilson | Out | Shoulder |
| Emilio Pagán | Questionable | Triceps |
| Alex Young | Out | Back |
| Nick Lodolo | Out | Groin |
| TJ Friedl | Out | Thumb |
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Noelvi Marte | Out | Suspension |
| Spencer Steer | Questionable | Ankle |
| Brandon Williamson | Out | Shoulder |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
San Diego Padres Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Xander Bogaerts | Questionable | Shoulder |
| Joe Musgrove | Probable | Elbow |
| Luis Patiño | Out | Elbow |
| Glenn Otto | Out | Shoulder |
| Tucupita Marcano | Out | Knee |
