Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
From Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, we have the Pirates and Reds facing off in an NL Central matchup. This one gets started at 1:10 PM ET, and the forecast calls for clear skies and temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.
Paul Skenes will start for the Pirates, and he is facing off against Hunter Greene. The Pirates are favored on the money line, and the over/under line is currently at 8 runs. Greene will be looking to help the Reds extend their two-game win streak, as they are 76-80 overall. The Pirates are 5th in the NL Central and have a record of 72-83.
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Pirates are 1-4. This includes going 1-4 vs. the runline.
- The Reds, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 2-3 (SU) and 3-2 record.
- The Pirates have a straight-up record of 6-4 in their last ten games as the favorite, with a runline record of 5-5.
- When playing as the underdog, the Reds have gone 4-6 against the runline, with a straight-up record of 5-5 over their last ten games.
Cincinnati cruised to a 7-1 win over the Pirates in the most recent game of this series. The Reds had a huge 3rd inning, scoring all three of their runs. As for the Pirates, they scored their only run in the 9th. Heading into the game, the Reds were favored at -122 on the money line.
Rhett Lowder only went five innings for the Reds but didn’t give up a run and picked up the win. He finished the game with just two strikeouts and allowed two walks. Jared Jones struggled on the mound for the Pirates, giving up six runs in five innings of work.
At the plate, the Reds were led by Elly De La Cruz, who went 3/5 with a home run and four RBIs. Both Ty France and Noelvi Marte each drove in two for Cincinnati’s offense.
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
The Pirates are 72-83 overall and trail the Brewers by 16 games in the NL Central. So far, they have gone 23-25 in divisional games. Pittsburgh is on a two-game losing streak, and they have dropped two straight on the road. This season, they are 38-40 at home compared to 34-43 on the road.
As the road favorite, the Pirates have gone 11-7 this season, and they are 34-28 as the favorite overall. Pittsburgh’s series record is 19-23-6, and they have dropped two straight series.
When the Pirates are on the road, they have a run line record of 44-33, which includes a 2-game run line losing streak. Their average run differential is -0.5 runs per game, which is the same as their overall average run differential. As the underdog, the Pirates have a run line record of 58-35, while as the favorite, they are just 24-38 against the run line.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are on the road today against the Cincinnati Reds, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8 runs. The Pirates have played to an average combined run average of 8.7 this season, and their overall over/under record is 75-78. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, their record is 16-18. Overall, 50.3% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8 runs or higher.
Right-hander Paul Skenes gets the start for the Pirates today as he faces the Reds on the road. Skenes has made 21 starts this season and has a record of 10-3 with a 2.07 ERA. In his 21 appearances, he has turned in 15 quality starts and is averaging 11.29 strikeouts per nine innings. Skenes’ last outing came on September 16th, where he took the loss, going six innings and giving up one earned run on four hits. Before that, he had won two straight starts. So far, he has been much better on the road, coming in with a 1.5 ERA compared to 2.72 at home.
Over his last seven games, Billy Cook has gone 5/20 with two homers for the Pirates. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has also been swinging a hot bat, going 11/34 over his last eight games. For the season, Cook is batting just .232, while Kiner-Falefa is at .276.
As a team, the Pirates are 22nd in scoring at 4.1 runs per game. They have been a bit better at home, averaging 4.3 runs per contest. Overall, the Pirates are just 23rd in home runs and are near the bottom of the league in both on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
Cincinnati has won two straight games, and they are 76-80 overall, putting them 4th in the NL Central. The Reds trail the Brewers by 12.5 games in the division. So far, they are 23-25 in divisional matchups.
The Reds have taken the first two games of this series vs. the Pirates, and they lead the Pirates by 16 games in the NL Central. Cincinnati’s overall series record is 19-27-3 this year, and they are 16-14 as the home underdog. At home, the Reds are 39-41 compared to 37-39 on the road.
The Reds have been a strong bet on the run line this season, going 85-71 overall. They have been especially good on the road, where they are 47-29 against the run line. They have been a good bet as an underdog, going 56-32 against the run line in those games.
Tonight’s game between the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates has an over/under line of 8 runs. The combined run average for Reds games this season is 8.8 runs per game, and their over/under record is 73-76. The average over/under line for Reds games this season is 9 runs, and their over/under record when the line is set at 8 runs is 7-12. Overall this season, 71.2% of Reds games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs.
Hunter Greene gets the start for the Reds today vs. the Pirates and comes in with a record of 9-4 and an ERA of 2.83. So far this season, he has made 24 starts, and opponents are batting .179 off him this year. In his 24 appearances, Greene has turned in 13 quality starts and is averaging 10.17 strikeouts per nine innings. Greene’s last outing came vs. the Cardinals, where he picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up just one earned run. Before that, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight starts.
Elly De La Cruz has been swinging a hot bat for the Reds of late, going 12/36 (.333) over his last nine games with two homers and nine RBIs. This has pushed his season-long batting average to .263, and he is currently leading the team with 25 homers and is 2nd on the team with 74 RBIs. TJ Friedl has also been hitting the ball well, going 10/28 in his last eight games.
As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game and are 14th in home runs. However, they have struck out the 23rd most times in the league and have a collective batting average of just .234. Currently, they have two players with 20 homers, but both Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario are batting just .230 and .225, respectively.
With the Reds being the underdog at +103, we really like their chances of picking up a win at home. And with the starting pitcher matchup, we actually have Hunter Greene finishing with the most strikeouts among all starters today, and he is also projected to finish with the most innings.
Offensively, we have the Reds finishing with 11 hits, which is the best among all teams today. As for the Pirates, they are actually projected to finish with the second-fewest runs among all teams and are 20th in terms of projected strikeouts.
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips
- We like the Reds on the moneyline (+103)
- On the run line we like Reds (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 10 runs, we like the over
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario | Out | Toe |
| Sam Moll | Out | Shoulder |
| Nick Lodolo | Out | Finger |
| Austin Wynns | Out | Teres Major |
| Nick Martini | Out | Thumb |
| Stuart Fairchild | Out | Thumb |
| Hunter Greene | Probable | Elbow |
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Graham Ashcraft | Out | Elbow |
| Brandon Williamson | Out | Elbow |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Roa | Out | Shoulder |
| Andrew Abbott | Out | Shoulder |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Johan Oviedo | Out | Elbow |
| Marco Gonzales | Out | Forearm |
| Ke’Bryan Hayes | Out | Back |
| Ben Heller | Out | Shoulder |
| Daulton Jefferies | Out | Elbow |
| Dauri Moreta | Out | Elbow |
| Kyle Nicolas | Out | Side |
| Henry Davis | Out | Hand |
| Hunter Stratton | Out | Knee |
| Endy Rodríguez | Out | Elbow |
