Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
From Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, we have the Pirates and Reds facing off in an NL Central matchup. The money line odds have the Reds at -124, while the Pirates are the slight underdog at +105. The over/under line is at 9 runs, and SN PT is carrying this game on TV.
First pitch for Friday’s matchup is set for 6:40 PM ET. Nick Martinez gets the start for the Reds, and he will be facing off against Mitch Keller. The Reds are 74-80, while the Pirates are 72-81, and the over/under line is currently 9 runs.
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Trends and Key Stats
- The Pirates are 1-4 across their last five road games. They have gone 1-4 vs. the runline.
- In the Reds’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 2-3 (SU) with 3-2 against the spread.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Reds have a record of 5-5 straight-up, and have gone 4-6 against the runline.
- The Pirates have a 4-6 straight-up record and a 4-6 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
The Pirates are coming off a game in which they closed out their series vs. the Cardinals with a 3-2 win. This was especially big, as they were the +126 underdog on the money line. It was a good all-around performance, as their offense scored three runs on eight hits and didn’t hit a home run.
Luis Ortiz put together a good start for the Pirates, going six innings and giving up just two runs on five hits. He only had two strikeouts in the outing and got the win. The Pirates’ bullpen was also solid, as Aroldis Chapman picked up the save and the Pirates didn’t allow a run after the 6th inning.
Pittsburgh is on the road today vs. the Reds, and they are 72-81 overall, putting them 5th in the NL Central. Currently, they trail the Brewers by 16 games in the division. The Pirates are 23-23 in divisional matchups this year.
The Pirates have dropped two straight series, losing their series vs. the Cardinals 3-1. So far, they have been the underdog in most of their games, and they are 23-34 as the road underdog. At home, the Pirates are 38-40 compared to 34-41 on the road. Their overall series record is 19-23-6.
When the Pirates are on the road, they have a run line record of 44-31, but their overall run line record is 82-71. They have a negative run differential both at home and on the road, but they have been a more profitable run line team on the road. They have been a better run line team as an underdog than as a favorite.
When the Pirates are on the road, the over/under line is set at 9 runs. The combined run average for their games this season is 8.7 runs, and their over/under record is 74-77. The average over/under line for their games is 8 runs, and when the line is set at 9 runs, their record is 4-10-1. Only 4.6% of their games have had over/under lines set at 9 runs or higher, with 85.6% of their games having lower lines.
Mitch Keller will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Royals, where he took the loss. In that start, he gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings of work. Looking back further, Keller has allowed at least 3 earned runs in three straight starts. The right-hander’s record for the season is 11-10, and he has an ERA of 3.87. Keller’s WHIP for the season is 1.25. This year, opponents are batting .247 vs. Keller. He has made 29 starts, one of which was a complete game, and he has 15 quality starts.
Heading into today’s game, the Pirates are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 22nd in the league. Their team batting average is just 15th in the league, and they are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and slugging percentage. However, they do have two of the league’s top home run hitters in Bryan Reynolds and Bryan De La Cruz.
Bryan Reynolds has been hot of late, going 3/10 in his last four games, and he is also on a three-game hitting streak. For the season, he is batting .280 with a team-high 85 RBIs. De La Cruz is batting just .233 for the season and has gone 2/14 in his last four games. The Pirates will also be looking for a better performance from Yasmani Grandal, who is just 1/6 in his last three games.
The Reds will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Braves with a 15-3 loss. Cincinnati was the +182 underdog at home going into this matchup. Things really got away from the Reds in the 4th inning, as the Braves scored seven runs in the inning. Cincinnati’s offense scored their only three runs in the 3rd.
Julian Aguiar got the start for the Reds and took the loss. He only lasted four innings, giving up seven earned runs. Offensively, the Reds had 10 hits but only scored three runs. Blake Dunn had a homer and scored three times.
Cincinnati will host the Pirates with an overall record of 74-80, and they are in 4th place in the NL Central. Currently, they trail the Brewers by 14.5 games and are 21-25 against other teams in the NL Central. The Reds have dropped two straight games, and they are 5-5 across their last 10 games.
At home, the Reds are 37-41 and 37-39 on the road. This season, the Reds have really struggled as the favorite, going 33-33 and 41-47 as the underdog. So far, they have an overall series record of 19-27-3.
The Reds are 36-42 against the run line at home this season, but they have been a profitable bet on the run line on the road, going 47-29. Cincinnati has covered the run line in 56 of its 88 games as the underdog this season.
The Reds have played to a combined run average of 8.8 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 72-75. When the O/U line is set at 9 runs, they have gone 8-20-5. Overall, 41 of their games have had O/U lines set higher than 9 runs, which accounts for 26.6% of their games. Their average O/U line for the season is 9 runs.
Cincinnati is sending right-hander Nick Martinez to the mound today vs. the Pirates. He has made 14 starts this season and has a record of 9-6 with a 3.37 ERA. Martinez has been pitching well recently, as he has picked up the win in each of his last three outings. In his most recent start, he went six innings and gave up just one earned run. Looking back over his last three starts, Martinez has allowed a total of two earned runs. Opponents are batting .236 off Martinez this season, and he has issued just 1.26 walks per nine innings.
Elly De La Cruz has been a bright spot for the Reds offense this season, as he is batting .260 with a team-leading 24 home runs and 70 RBIs. De La Cruz is also on a four-game hitting streak. Left fielder Spencer Steer and third baseman Jeimer Candelario are also among the team leaders in homers, but both are batting below .230 for the season.
Overall, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. They are also 15th in home runs and have the 17th best team batting average in the league. As a team, they are batting just .233 and have the 24th highest strikeout rate in the league.
Our prediction for today’s Pirates vs. Reds matchup is to take the Reds on the money line at -124. We have the Reds winning this one by a score of 6-4. With the over/under sitting at 9 runs, you could also look to take the over, as we have this one going over the line.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Mitch Keller is projected to finish with six strikeouts, while Nick Martinez is predicted to finish with four. Martinez is also projected to finish with a better ERA than Keller, and we have him going 4.2 innings compared to Keller at 4.1.
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips
- Take the Reds on the moneyline
- The Reds should also cover at -1.5
- Projecting a combined 10 runs, we like the over
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario | Out | Toe |
| Sam Moll | Out | Shoulder |
| Will Benson | Probable | Finger |
| Nick Lodolo | Out | Finger |
| Austin Wynns | Out | Teres Major |
| Nick Martini | Out | Thumb |
| Stuart Fairchild | Out | Thumb |
| Hunter Greene | Out | Elbow |
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Graham Ashcraft | Out | Elbow |
| Brandon Williamson | Out | Elbow |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Roa | Out | Shoulder |
| Andrew Abbott | Out | Shoulder |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Johan Oviedo | Out | Elbow |
| Marco Gonzales | Out | Forearm |
| Ke’Bryan Hayes | Out | Back |
| Ben Heller | Out | Shoulder |
| Daulton Jefferies | Out | Elbow |
| Dauri Moreta | Out | Elbow |
| Kyle Nicolas | Out | Side |
| Henry Davis | Out | Hand |
| Hunter Stratton | Out | Knee |
| Endy Rodríguez | Out | Elbow |
