Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview
Brandon Williamson will start for the Reds on Sunday, as they are looking to avoid a four-game losing streak. However, they are the slight underdog on the money line (+111). Milwaukee will be starting Tobias Myers, and they are the betting favorite (-130). The over/under line is currently 9.5 runs.
BSOH is carrying Sunday’s TV coverage for this matchup, which gets started at 12:10 PM ET from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. The Brewers are 1st in the NL Central, and the Reds are 5th, with a record of 64-73.
Check out BetCoco for Cincinnati Reds – Milwaukee Brewers odds
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Trends and Key Stats
- The Brewers are 4-1 across their last five road games. They have gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- Conversely, the Reds have achieved a 2-3 (SU) record and 2-3 record in their last five home games.
- The Brewers have a straight-up record of 7-3 in their last ten games as the favorite, with a runline record of 5-5.
- When playing as the underdog, the Reds have gone 4-6 against the runline, with a straight-up record of 5-5 over their last ten games.
It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Brewers vs Reds series. Milwaukee went into the matchup as -130 favorites and squeaked out a 5-4 win. The Brewers had a three-run 3rd inning but didn’t score another run until putting up the game’s go-ahead run in the top of the 9th. As for the Reds, they scored two runs in the 5th and didn’t score another run until putting up a threat in the bottom of the 9th.
Cincinnati actually outhit the Brewers in the game 8 to 5. Both teams finished with just one home run. Milwaukee’s offense was led by Jackson Chourio, who went 3/4 with a homer and three RBIs. Willy Adames and Blake Perkins each had two hits and drove in a run.
Aaron Ashby got the win for the Brewers out of the bullpen, while Devin Williams got the save. Justin Wilson took the loss for the Reds out of the bullpen.
Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Milwaukee is currently on a five-game winning streak, and they lead the NL Central with an overall record of 80-56. The Brewers hold a 10-game lead over the Cubs for the division lead. So far, they have gone 29-16 in divisional matchups.
As the Brewers are at home today, they are 40-25 at home this season. On the road, they are 40-31 and have won three straight road games. Milwaukee has an overall series record of 23-15-4 and have won two straight series.
When the Brewers win, they win big, with an average run margin of +3.6 runs per game. But when they lose, they lose big, with an average run margin of -2.8 runs per game. Overall, their run line record is 71-65, with a +1.0 run differential. They have been a better bet on the run line as the underdog (40-19) compared to as the favorite (31-46).
The Milwaukee Brewers are on the road today against the Cincinnati Reds, and the over/under line for the game is set at 9.5 runs. The combined run average for Brewers games this season is 8.8 runs, and their over/under record is 72-55. The average over/under line for their games is 8 runs, and when the line is set at 9.5 runs, their record is 5-3. In total, only 4 of their games have had over/under lines set at 9.5 runs, accounting for just 2.9% of their contests. Their over/under record during games with lines under 9.5 runs is 91.2%, and they are currently on a streak of two consecutive overs.
Milwaukee is sending right-hander Tobias Myers to the mound today vs. the Reds. He has made 20 starts this season and has a record of 6-5 with an ERA of 2.99. Myers WHIP for the season is 1.13, and he has turned in six quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Myers finished with a no-decision vs. the Giants, giving up three earned runs in five innings of work. He has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three outings. Myers has allowed a total of five home runs in his last four outings. Per nine innings, he is averaging 2.33 walks compared to 7.81 strikeouts.
William Contreras and Willy Adames have been swinging the bat well of late, with both players going 7/19 in their last five games, with three homers apiece. Adames is also on a nine-game hitting streak heading into today’s game. For the season, Adames is batting .256 with a team-high 27 homers and 95 RBIs. Rhys Hoskins is 2nd on the team with 22 homers but is batting just .213.
As a team, the Brewers are 5th in the league in scoring at 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are one of the league’s top home run hitting teams and have the 5th best team batting average in the MLB.
Cincinnati is 16.5 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central, and they are 64-73 overall. The Reds have dropped three straight games and are 2-8 across their last 10. So far, they are 19-23 in divisional matchups.
At home, the Reds are 32-39 this season and 32-34 on the road. As the underdog, the Reds are 31-40 this season and 33-33 as the favorite. Cincinnati has an overall series record of 16-23-3, and they have dropped two straight series.
While the Reds are just 31-40 vs. the run line at home, they are a much more profitable 41-25 on the road. They have been an underdog in 71 of their 137 games, going 45-26 vs. the run line in those contests. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.9, while it is -3.2 in their losses.
The Cincinnati Reds are at home today against the Milwaukee Brewers, and the over/under line for the game is set at 9.5 runs. The combined run average for Reds games this season is 8.9 runs, and their over/under record is 65-65. The average over/under line for Reds games is set at 9 runs, and their over/under record when the line is set at 9.5 runs is 21-10. This season, only 5.8% of Reds games have had over/under lines set at 9.5 runs or higher, and the over has hit in their last two games.
Left-hander Brandon Williamson will be on the mound for the Reds in their matchup against the Brewers. Last season, Williamson made 23 starts and finished with a record of 5-5. His ERA for the year was 4.46, and he had a WHIP of 1.28. Williamson’s batting average allowed was .243, and his on-base percentage allowed was .303. He gave up a total of 18 home runs and had seven quality starts. For the season, Williamson averaged 7.54 strikeouts per nine innings and had a K/BB ratio of 2.5.
Elly De La Cruz has been a bright spot for the Reds this season, as he is batting .263 and leads the team with 22 home runs. His 61 RBIs are also the 2nd most on the team. Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario are also near the top of the team in home runs, but both are batting under .240 for the season.
As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.5 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. They are also 12th in home runs and have the 8th best isolated power mark in the league. Cincinnati’s offense has been good at avoiding strikeouts this season, but they are batting just .232 as a team.
Our prediction for today’s Brewers vs. Reds game is to take the Reds on the money line at +111. We have the Reds winning this one by a score of 6-5. With the over/under sitting at 9.5 runs, there is some room to take the over, but we are sticking with the Reds to pick up the win.
Looking at some of the projections, Tobias Myers is predicted to go five innings, and he is projected to finish with five strikeouts. As for the Reds, they are predicted to finish with 11 team strikeouts and have six home runs.
Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips
- Take the Brewers on the moneyline
- On the run line we like Reds (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario | Out | Toe |
| Brent Suter | Out | Shoulder |
| Jake Fraley | Out | Knee |
| Nick Lodolo | Out | Finger |
| Austin Wynns | Out | Teres Major |
| Nick Martini | Out | Thumb |
| Stuart Fairchild | Out | Thumb |
| Hunter Greene | Out | Elbow |
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Santiago Espinal | Probable | Foot |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Graham Ashcraft | Out | Elbow |
| Brandon Williamson | Out | Shoulder |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Roa | Out | Shoulder |
| Andrew Abbott | Out | Shoulder |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Yelich | Out | Back |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Hoby Milner | Out | Shoulder |
| Rob Zastryzny | Out | Elbow |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| Enoli Paredes | Out | Forearm |
| Nick Mears | Out | Forearm |
| Robert Gasser | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Dunn | Out | Back |
