Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Preview
At 12:40 PM ET, the Brewers and Reds face off in an NL Central matchup. This one is being played at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, and the Reds will be looking to move above .500, as they are 64-70. Milwaukee is 1st in the NL Central with a record of 77-56.
Friday’s matchup has Nick Martinez going for the Reds and Colin Rea for the Brewers. Milwaukee is currently on a two-game winning streak, and they are the slight money line favorite today at -130. The over/under line is currently at 9.5 runs, and the game can be seen on BSOH.
Check out BetCoco for Cincinnati Reds – Milwaukee Brewers odds
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Trends and Key Stats
- The Brewers are 2-3 across their last five road games. They have gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- The Reds, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 2-3 (SU) and 2-3 record.
- The Brewers have a straight-up record of 6-4 in their last ten games as the favorite, with a runline record of 5-5.
- The Reds have a 4-6 record vs. the runline and a 5-5 straight-up record in their last ten games as the underdog.
Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Garrett Mitchell and the Brewers are coming off a big 6-0 win over the Giants to close out their series. Mitchell really got things going at the plate, going 2/3 with a homer and scoring three times. The Brewers really broke things open with a three-run 2nd inning. Milwaukee was the -127 favorite at home going into the game.
Aaron Civale started for the Brewers, going seven innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just two walks and struck out seven Giants batters. Milwaukee’s offense was carried by Garrett Mitchell, who went 3/3 with a homer and three RBIs.
Milwaukee heads into today’s road matchup vs. the Reds having taken two straight games, and they lead the NL Central with a record of 77-56. The Brewers are 9.5 games ahead of the Cubs for the division lead. This season, they have gone 26-16 against other teams in the NL Central.
At home, the Brewers have gone 40-25 this season, and they are just above .500 at 37-31 on the road. As the favorite, the Brewers are 44-31 this season and 33-25 as the underdog. They have won two straight games as the favorite.
The Brewers are 38-30 on the run line on the road this season, covering by an average of 1.0 runs per game. They are 39-19 against the run line as an underdog, covering by an average of 1.9 runs per game.
Despite the over/under line being set at 9.5 runs, the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds have a combined run average of 8.8 runs per game. The over/under record for the Brewers this season is 70-55, and their games have averaged eight runs per game. Only 3% of their games have had an over/under line set at 9.5 runs or higher.
Milwaukee is sending Colin Rea to the mound today vs. the Reds, and he comes in with a record of 12-4 and an ERA of 3.61. Rea has made 22 starts this year, and opponents are batting .229 off the right-hander. In his 25 appearances, Rea has turned in eight quality starts and is averaging 7.16 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his last outing, Rea went 6 2/3 innings, giving up four earned runs, and got the win. Before that, he had won three straight starts. So far, he has been much better at home, with an ERA of 4.04 compared to 3.47 on the road.
Willy Adames has been a consistent run producer for the Brewers this season, as his 88 RBIs are 8th in the league and lead the team. He also leads the team with 24 home runs. Adames is batting just .252 for the season, but he has been even worse of late, hitting just .250 over his last nine games. William Contreras comes into the game with a batting average of .285 and has gone deep 18 times this season.
Overall, the Brewers are 9th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.9 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .253, which is the 5th best mark in the league. The Brewers are also one of the best teams in terms of drawing walks and have the 3rd best on-base percentage in the league.
The Reds’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Athletics, closing out their series with a 10-9 win. After allowing two runs to the Athletics in the top of the first, the Reds responded with a big 6-run inning. Cincinnati went on to add another 2 runs in the 3rd before the Athletics scored two in the 4th to tie things up. The Reds were the -135 favorite at home going into the game.
Julian Aguiar got the start for the Reds, going four innings and giving up six earned runs on 10 hits. Cincinnati’s offense picked him up, though, scoring 10 runs on eight hits. Tyler Stephenson was hot at the plate, going 3/5 with a homer and two RBIs.
Cincinnati is 64-70 overall, putting them 4th in the NL Central. Currently, they trail the Brewers by 13.5 games. The Reds are just below .500 in the division, coming in with a mark of 19-20.
At home, the Reds are 32-36 this year, while they are 32-34 on the road. So far, they have been slightly better as the favorite, going 33-32. As the underdog, they are 31-38 this season. Cincinnati is looking to get back on track, as they lost two of three in their series vs. the Athletics.
When the Reds win, they win by an average of 3.9 runs per game, but when they lose, they lose by an average of 3.2 runs per game. Their overall run line record is 70-64, but they are just 29-39 against the run line at home. However, they are 41-25 against the run line on the road. They are 43-26 against the run line as an underdog, and their run line win streak as an underdog is currently at two games.
The Cincinnati Reds are playing at home against the Milwaukee Brewers today, with an over/under line of 9.5 runs. The combined run average in Reds games this season is 8.8 runs, and their over/under record is 63-65. The average over/under line in their games is 9 runs, but when the line is set at 9.5 runs, the over has hit at a 20-10 clip. Only 6.0% of their games this season have had an over/under line set at 9.5 runs, but the over has hit in the last two games.
Right-hander Nick Martinez gets the start for the Reds today as he faces the Brewers at home. He has made 10 starts this year and has a record of 6-6 with a 3.62 ERA. Martinez’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.11. Out of his 36 appearances, he has turned in two quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he gave up just one earned run in three innings of work. In that outing, he gave up one homer. Martinez’s ERA at home is 3.70, compared to 2.95 on the road.
Elly De La Cruz has been a key power source for the Reds this season, as he is 15th in the league with 22 homers and is batting .262 overall. Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario are also near the top of the Reds’ home run leaderboard, but both are batting below .240 for the season. Steer does come into the game with a team-leading 83 RBIs, which is 11th in the league.
Looking at the Reds’ recent offensive performances, Tyler Stephenson has been on fire, going 11/22 over his last six games with two homers. He is also on a 13-game hitting streak. Will Benson has also been swinging a hot bat, going 4/11 with two homers in his last five games.
Our pick for this Brewers vs. Reds matchup is to take the Reds on the money line at +109. With the starting pitcher matchup, we actually have Nick Martinez finishing with more strikeouts than Colin Rea, but we see the Reds getting the win and like the +109 payout.
If you’re looking for a prediction on the final score, we have this one finishing with a 5-4 win for the Reds. Looking at the lineups, the Reds have a better chance of hitting a home run, and they also have a higher projected team batting average than the Brewers.
Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips
- Take the Brewers on the moneyline
- The Reds are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
- Our MLB model projects 9 runs, and we suggest taking the under
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario | Out | Toe |
| Brent Suter | Out | Shoulder |
| Jake Fraley | Out | Knee |
| Nick Lodolo | Out | Finger |
| Austin Wynns | Out | Teres Major |
| Nick Martini | Out | Thumb |
| Stuart Fairchild | Out | Thumb |
| Hunter Greene | Out | Elbow |
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Graham Ashcraft | Out | Elbow |
| Brandon Williamson | Out | Shoulder |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Roa | Out | Shoulder |
| Andrew Abbott | Out | Shoulder |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
Milwaukee Brewers Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Yelich | Out | Back |
| Ray Black | Out | Personal |
| Hoby Milner | Out | Shoulder |
| Rob Zastryzny | Out | Elbow |
| Brandon Woodruff | Out | Shoulder |
| J.B. Bukauskas | Out | Shoulder |
| Enoli Paredes | Out | Forearm |
| Nick Mears | Out | Forearm |
| Robert Gasser | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Dunn | Out | Back |
