Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Preview
Carson Spiers and the Reds (45-49) will host the Marlins on Friday, with the game getting started at 7:10 PM ET from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. Miami is 32-61 overall and they are starting Yonny Chirinos. The Reds are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -157, while the Marlins are the slight underdog at +133. The over/under line is currently 9.5 runs.
Miami comes into the game on a three-game losing streak and is 5th in the NL East, while the Reds are 4th in the NL Central. BSOH is carrying this one on TV.
Check out BetCoco for Cincinnati Reds – Miami Marlins odds
Cincinnati Reds Trends and Key Stats
- Over the course of their previous five away games, the Marlins have recorded a 1-4 record, with a 3-2 performance on the runline.
- The Reds, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 4-1 (SU) and 4-1 record.
- As the favorite, the Reds are 4-6 over their last ten games, including going 4-6 vs. the runline.
- Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Marlins have a 2-8 straight-up record and a 5-5 record vs. the runline.
Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Prediction
Miami closed out their series vs. the Astros with a 6-3 loss. Heading into the game, the Marlins were the +153 underdog on the money line. Things started off well for the Marlins, as they got on the board with a run in the 1st inning but gave up the lead right away as the Astros scored twice in the bottom of the first.
Rodder Muñoz had a rough outing, giving up four earned runs on five hits and issuing two walks. The Marlins also wasted a big game from Bryan De La Cruz, who went 3/4 with a homer and a run scored.
Miami is on the road today to take on the Reds, and they are looking to snap a three-game losing streak. The Marlins are 5th in the NL East, 29 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. Overall, they are 32-61 and just 7-19 against other teams in the NL East.
At home, the Marlins are 18-31 this year, and they are just 14-30 on the road. As the underdog, the Marlins are 28-48 this year, and they are 4-13 when favored. Miami’s overall series record is 8-20-2, and they were swept in their most recent series vs. the Astros.
Despite a losing record overall on the run line, the Marlins have been a profitable bet on the run line on the road, going 22-22 this season. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 39-37 on the run line, compared to just 2-15 when favored.
When the Miami Marlins are on the road, the over/under line is typically set at 8 runs per game, but today’s line is set at 9.5 runs. The Marlins have played 91 games this season, and only four of them have had an over/under line set at 9.5 runs or higher. The over has hit in just one of those four games, and the over/under record for the season is 49-42. The Marlins have hit the over in two straight games.
Yonny Chirinos is making his 4th start of the season for the Marlins, and it will be his 3rd road start. He has yet to pick up a win this season, but has been solid in his first 3 outings. In his last start, he went 5 innings and gave up 3 earned runs on 6 hits and 1 home run.
Although the Marlins have struggled to hit home runs this season, Bryan De La Cruz and Jazz Chisholm Jr. have been bright spots in the lineup, as De La Cruz leads the team with 44 RBIs and Chisholm Jr. is 2nd on the team with 42 RBIs. De La Cruz is also hitting .247 for the season and comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak. Chisholm Jr. has gone just 6/28 in his last seven games, but he does have two homers in that stretch.
Overall, the Marlins are averaging just 3.5 runs per game, and they have been even worse on the road at 2.9 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting just .231, which is 17th in the league, and are also near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and isolated power.
Cincinnati closed out their series vs. the Rockies with an impressive 8-1 win. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at -201. Offensively, the Reds scored their eight runs on 14 hits and only hit three home runs.
Hunter Greene put together a good start for the Reds, going six innings and giving up just one earned run, and picking up the win. He also issued only two walks and struck out 10 Rockies batters. Tyler Stephenson was hot at the plate, going 2/5 with two homers and five RBIs.
Cincinnati will open their series vs. the Marlins with a record of 45-49, placing them 4th in the NL Central. Currently, they trail the Brewers by nine games in the division. The Reds are just a half-game behind the Pirates for 3rd place in the division and are 9.0 games out of the NL Wild Card.
At home, the Reds are 23-27 this year, and they have gone 22-22 on the road. So far, they have been the favorite in 42 games, going 23-19 in those matchups. As for games in which they were the underdog, the Reds are 22-30. Cincinnati’s overall series record is 10-17-3 this year.
The Reds have been a strong bet on the run line this season, going 51-43 overall. They have been even better on the run line on the road, going 30-14. However, they have been a poor bet at home, going just 21-29. Their average run margin for the season is +0.3 runs per game.
The Reds have a combined run average of 8.4 runs per game, and their over/under record is 41-49. The over/under line for today’s game is set at 9.5 runs, and when the line is set at 9.5 runs, the Reds have a record of 15-8. The over has hit in three straight games for Cincinnati, and the over has hit in 5 of the 15 games this season where the over/under line was set at 9.5 runs.
Right-hander Carson Spiers gets the start for the Reds today as he faces the Marlins at home. So far this season, he has made four starts and has a record of 2-2 with an ERA of 3.64. Looking back at his last outing, Spiers took the loss, going 4 2/3 innings against the Tigers. In that outing, he gave up four earned runs, eight hits, and two homers. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Spiers has a WHIP of 1.26 this season and is averaging 6.86 strikeouts per nine innings.
Elly De La Cruz has been one of the Reds’ top power threats this season, as his 15 homers are 13th best in the league and the top mark on the team. De La Cruz is also 3rd on the team in RBIs, with 40. He comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak. Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario are also tied for 2nd on the team with 14 homers.
Over his last 10 games, Steer has gone 10/36 with four homers and eight RBIs. For the season, he is batting .245. Tyler Stephenson has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/34 with four homers in his last nine games. Stephenson is also on a five-game hitting streak.
Our predicted final score for this one is 5-4 in favor of the Reds. With the money line payout for a Reds win sitting at -157, this is the way we recommend playing this one.
Looking at the starters, Carson Spiers is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which is good for fifth among all starters. As for Yonny Chirinos, he is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which is 12th among starters.
Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Betting Tips
- Take the Reds on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Marlins (+1.5)
- Our MLB model projects 9 runs, and we suggest taking the under
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Luke Maile | Out | Back |
| Emilio Pagán | Out | Lat |
| TJ Friedl | Out | Hamstring |
| Nick Martini | Out | Thumb |
| Stuart Fairchild | Out | Spine |
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Graham Ashcraft | Out | Elbow |
| Brandon Williamson | Out | Shoulder |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
Miami Marlins Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | Out | Elbow |
| Braxton Garrett | Out | Elbow |
| Jesús Luzardo | Out | Back |
| Sixto Sánchez | Out | Shoulder |
| Ryan Weathers | Out | Finger |
| Otto Lopez | Out | Back |
| Eury Pérez | Out | Elbow |
| Josh Simpson | Out | Elbow |
