Cincinnati Reds vs Houston Astros Preview
Thursday’s interleague matchup between the Astros and Reds is set to get started at 1:10 PM ET from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. The Reds have won three straight and are 67-73, while the Astros are 75-64 and have Hunter Brown on the mound.
MLB Network is carrying Thursday’s TV coverage, and the Astros are favored on the money line, with the odds sitting at -152 compared to the Reds at +129. The over/under line is at 9 runs.
Check out BetCoco for Cincinnati Reds – Houston Astros odds
Cincinnati Reds vs. Houston Astros Trends and Key Stats
- The Astros are 1-4 in their five most recent road games, including a 2-3 runline record.
- Conversely, the Reds have achieved a 2-3 (SU) record and 2-3 record in their last five home games.
- The Astros have a straight-up record of 6-4 in their last ten games as the favorite, with a runline record of 5-5.
- As the underdog, the Reds have gone 4-6 vs. the runline and 5-5 straight-up.
The Reds offense exploded for nine first-inning runs in the most recent game of this series. Cincinnati went on to win the game 12-5 and picked up a +125 money line win.
Heading into the game, the Reds were at -147 on the money line. This was the first game of the series that the Reds won, as they had dropped the first two games to the Astros.
Nick Martinez got the win for the Reds in this game, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up just one run. Spencer Arrighetti struggled on the mound for the Astros, giving up nine runs in just two-thirds of an inning of work.
Cincinnati Reds vs Houston Astros Prediction
The Astros are 75-64 overall and lead the AL West by 5.5 games over the Mariners. Houston has dropped two straight games, and this comes after winning four in a row. Their record in the AL West is 21-18 this season.
At home, the Astros are 39-29 this season, and they are just above .500 at 36-35 on the road. So far, they have been an even 21-21 as the road favorite. As for their overall record as the favorite, the Astros are 57-45 this year.
On the road, the Astros have been a solid bet against the run line at 39-32. They have been favored in 102 games this season, going 46-56 against the run line. Their average run differential in winning games is +3.7, while in losing games it’s -3.1.
The Houston Astros are on the road against the Cincinnati Reds today. The over/under line is set at 9 runs, which is slightly higher than their combined run average of 8.6 runs per game. The Astros have an over/under record of 55-79 for the season, and when the line is set at 9 runs, they have gone 12-8-2. Only 13.7% of their games this season have had over/under lines set at 9 runs or higher.
Hunter Brown will be looking to build off his last outing, where he finished with a no-decision. Against the Royals, he went 6 2/3 innings, giving up two earned runs, four hits, and two walks. Brown didn’t give up a homer in that outing. Before that, he had won two straight starts. One of those wins came against the White Sox, where he pitched seven innings and gave up just one earned run. Brown’s ERA for the season is 3.55, along with a record of 11-7. Out of his 26 starts, he has 16 quality starts and is averaging 9.49 strikeouts per nine innings.
Yordan Alvarez has been on a tear for the Astros of late, going 13/34 (.382) in his last nine games with five homers and six RBIs. Alvarez is currently leading the Astros with 30 homers and is 2nd on the team with 73 RBIs. Catcher Yainer Diaz has been the team’s top run producer, with 78 RBIs and also has 16 homers.
As a team, the Astros are 3rd in batting average at .260 and are averaging 4.6 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 4.7 runs per contest. Overall, the Astros are 10th in home runs and have the league’s 3rd best team batting average.
Cincinnati is 67-73 overall, putting them 4th in the NL Central. Currently, they trail the Cardinals by four games for the 3rd spot in the division and are 14 games behind the Brewers for the division lead. The Reds have won three straight games, and they are 4-6 across their last 10.
At home, the Reds are 35-39 this year compared to 32-34 on the road. Cincinnati has won three straight at home as they are also 14-12 as the home underdog this year. The Reds’ overall series record is 16-25-3, and they have lost three straight series at home.
When it comes to betting the run line, the Reds have been a solid choice on the road, going 41-25 this season. They are just 34-40 at home, but have covered the run line in each of their last four games at Great American Ball Park. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 48-26 against the run line in those games.
When the Reds play at home, the over/under line is set at 9 runs. The combined run average in their games this season is 8.9 runs, and their over/under record is 66-67. When the over/under line is set at 9 runs, their record is 6-19-5. This season, 29.3% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 9 runs, while 49.3% have had lines set lower than 9 runs.
Rhett Lowder will be making his second start of the season for the Reds, and it will be at home against the Astros. In his first start of the year, Lowder took the loss, going 4 innings and giving up just 1 earned run. He did strike out 6 batters in that outing.
Elly De La Cruz has been a nice surprise for the Reds this season, as he is batting .265 with a team-high 22 home runs and 63 RBIs. He has also been a tough out this season, coming in with an OBP of .347. The Reds will also be looking for Jeimer Candelario and Spencer Steer to pick up the pace, as Candelario is batting just .225 and Steer is hitting .234.
Jonathan India and Ty France have been swinging the bat well of late, with India going 7/21 in his last six games and France going 11/26 in his last seven. France has four straight multi-hit games. Amed Rosario and TJ Friedl are both on four-game hitting streaks.
Our prediction for today’s Astros vs. Reds matchup is to take the Reds on the money line, with a payout of +129. We actually have the Reds winning this one by a score of 6-5. If you’re looking for an over/under prediction, we would take the over, as the line is sitting at 9 runs.
If you’re looking for a starting pitcher to have a big day, we actually have Hunter Brown finishing with the second-most strikeouts among starters, but we don’t have him going deep into the game, with a final line of just six innings.
Cincinnati Reds vs Houston Astros Betting Tips
- We like the Reds on the moneyline (+129)
- The Reds are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario | Out | Toe |
| Nick Lodolo | Out | Finger |
| Austin Wynns | Out | Teres Major |
| Nick Martini | Out | Thumb |
| Stuart Fairchild | Out | Thumb |
| Hunter Greene | Out | Elbow |
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Graham Ashcraft | Out | Elbow |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Roa | Out | Shoulder |
| Andrew Abbott | Out | Shoulder |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
Houston Astros Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Kendall Graveman | Out | Shoulder |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Out | Forearm |
| Kyle Tucker | Out | Shin |
| Cristian Javier | Out | Elbow |
| Luis Garcia | Out | Elbow |
| Jake Meyers | Out | Personal |
| Bennett Sousa | Out | Shoulder |
| José Urquidy | Out | Elbow |
| Penn Murfee | Out | Elbow |
| Oliver Ortega | Out | Elbow |
| J.P. France | Out | Undisclosed |
