Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction & Betting Tips 6/11/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians Preview

At 7:10 PM ET, the Guardians and Reds square off in an interleague matchup. This one is being played at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, and the Reds are the slight home underdogs on the money line (+107). The over/under line is currently at 9 runs, and the Guardians will be looking to extend their two-game winning streak.

Cleveland comes in with a record of 42-22, while the Reds are 32-34 overall. Triston McKenzie is starting for the Guardians, and the Reds are sending Brent Suter to the mound. Cleveland is currently in 1st place in the AL Central, while the Reds are 3rd in the NL Central. BSOH is carrying this one on TV.

Check out BetCoco for Cincinnati Reds – Cleveland Guardians odds

Cincinnati Reds Trends and Key Stats

• Across their last five road games, the Guardians are 3-2. This includes going 3-2 vs. the runline.
• On the opposing side, the Reds have a 4-1 (SU) record, along with a 4-1 record in their last five home contests.
• Looking back on their last ten games as the favorite, the Guardians are 6-4 straight-up and 5-5 vs. the runline.
• The Reds have a 6-4 record vs. the runline and a 8-2 straight-up record in their last ten games as the underdog.

Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

The Guardians wrapped up their series vs. the Marlins with a 6-3 win on the road. Cleveland was the slight favorite at -121 on the money line going into the game. It was a big 2nd inning for the Guardians, as they scored their first run and added three more to take a 4-0 lead. The Marlins could only score two runs, both of which came in the 4th.

Carlos Carrasco got the start for the Guardians, going 4 2/3 innings, and picked up the win. He gave up just two runs on four hits and issued only one walk. Tyler Freeman was hot at the plate, going 2/4 with a homer and three RBIs.

Cleveland is 42-22 overall and leads the AL Central by 4.5 games over the Royals. The Guardians have won two straight games, and they went 2-1 in their most recent series vs. the Marlins. So far, they have been good against other AL Central teams, going 11-6.

At home, the Guardians have been strong at 21-8, and they have also been good on the road, where they are 21-14. This season, they have been favored in 44 games, going 30-14 in those contests. As the road favorite, the Guardians have a record of 12-7 this year.

The Guardians have been a solid run line bet this season, going 36-28 overall, including a 20-15 mark on the road. They have covered the run line in two straight games and have a run line record of 15-5 as an underdog. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.6 runs, while it’s -2.9 runs in losing games.

When the Cleveland Guardians play on the road, the over/under line is set at 9 runs for their game against the Cincinnati Reds. The Guardians’ games have averaged 8.8 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 31-28. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs, and when the line has been set at 9 runs, their record is 3-4-1. Only 7.8% of their games have had over/under lines set at 9 runs or higher this season.

Triston McKenzie gets the start for the Guardians today as he faces the Reds on the road. So far this season, he has made 12 starts and has a record of 2-3 with an ERA of 4.17. McKenzie’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.44. Looking at his overall numbers, McKenzie has made three quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he gave up five earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. In that outing, he gave up three home runs. McKenzie has not taken a loss or a win in his last three outings and has finished with a no-decision in each.

Heading into today’s game, the Guardians are averaging 5.1 runs per game, which is 3rd in the league. They have been even better on the road this season, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. As a team, the Guardians are batting .240, which is 11th in the league, and have the 9th most home runs in the league. Over his last 10 games, José Ramirez has gone 12/37 with three homers and eight RBIs, while Josh Naylor has also homered three times in that stretch, but is batting just .179.

For the season, Ramirez is batting .275 with a league-leading 62 RBIs and 18 homers. Naylor is 2nd on the team with 16 homers but has a batting average of just .220. Steven Kwan is currently on a six-game hitting streak for the Guardians.

The Reds will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Cubs with a 4-2 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 9th inning before the Cubs scored three runs in the top of the 9th. Cincinnati was the +113 underdog at home going into the game.

Offensively, the Reds only had five hits but scored their two runs on a Luke Maile homer in the 2nd inning. Maile went just 1/2 but drove in both of Cincinnati’s runs. The Reds also wasted a big game from Frankie Montas, who went 4/5 with a run scored out of the leadoff spot.

Cincinnati is 32-34 overall and trails the Brewers by seven games in the NL Central. So far, they are 7-6 in divisional games. The Reds are hosting the Guardians today and have an overall series record of 8-12-1. However, they have won three straight series.

At home, the Reds are 17-18 this year and 15-16 on the road. As the favorite, Cincinnati is 17-12 and 15-22 as the underdog. Looking at their recent play, the Reds have gone 8-2 over their last ten games, and they took three of four from the Cubs in their most recent series.

When betting on the Reds’ run line, it’s been a tale of two teams. Cincinnati is 21-10 vs. the run line on the road, but just 14-21 at home. The Reds have been a better bet as the underdog, going 21-16 vs. the run line, compared to 14-15 as the favorite. Cincinnati’s average run margin is just +0.2 runs per game, but it’s been more extreme in wins (+3.7) and losses (-3.1).

The Reds have had a high-scoring season, with their games averaging 8.5 runs per game. Their over/under record is 30-33, and their games have had an average over/under line of 9 runs. However, when the line is set at 9 runs, the under has hit at a 1-10-2 clip. In fact, 48.5% of their games have had lower lines than 9 runs, and the under has hit in their last three games.

Cincinnati is sending Brent Suter to the mound today vs. the Guardians, and he has made 26 appearances this season, including two starts. Suter’s ERA for the season is 3.86, and he has a record of 0-0. The left-hander has not taken a loss or earned a win this season, finishing with a no-decision in each of his last four outings. Suter’s WHIP for the season is 1.26, and opponents are batting .257 off him this year. In his last outing, he gave up one earned run in one inning of work out of the bullpen. Suter has not allowed a homer in any of his last three outings.

Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer have been the Reds’ top power threats this season, with De La Cruz’s 11 homers leading the team and Steer’s seven homers coming in as the 4th most in the league. Steer also leads the Reds with 40 RBIs, which is the 14th best mark in the MLB. De La Cruz comes into the game batting .235, while Steer is just ahead of him at .239.

Jeimer Candelario has gone deep in two straight games and is 5/20 in his last five games. For the season, he is batting just .234, but his nine homers are the 2nd most on the team. Candelario is also 3rd on the Reds with 26 RBIs. TJ Friedl and Candelario have both gone deep twice in their last five games.

With the Reds being the underdogs at +107, there is a lot of value in picking them up to get the win at home. Our predicted final score is 6-5 in favor of the Reds, giving you a few different ways you could play this one.

If you’re looking for a player prop, we would suggest looking at the starting pitchers. Brent Suter is projected to finish with four strikeouts, while Triston McKenzie is predicted to finish with seven.

Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Tips

• Take the Guardians on the moneyline
• On the run line we like Reds (+1.5)
• Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over

Cincinnati Reds Injury Report

Cleveland Guardians Injury Report