Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Preview
Wednesday’s Reds vs. Cubs game has a first pitch set for 7:10 PM ET from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. The Reds are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -151 compared to the Cubs at +128. The over/under line is at 9.5 runs.
Chicago comes in with a record of 51-58, while the Reds are currently 52-55. Nick Lodolo is starting for the Reds, and he will be facing off against Kyle Hendricks. Cincinnati is currently on a two-game winning streak, and they are 4th in the NL Central, while the Cubs are 5th.
Check out BetCoco for Cincinnati Reds – Chicago Cubs odds
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs Trends and Key Stats
- The Cubs are 2-3 across their last five road games. They have gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- In the Reds’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 3-2 (SU) with 2-3 against the spread.
- As the favorite, the Reds are 4-6 over their last ten games, including going 3-7 vs. the runline.
- The Cubs have a 5-5 straight-up record and a 7-3 record vs. the runline over their previous ten games as the underdog.
Cincinnati picked up a 6-3 win over the Cubs in the most recent game of this series. The Reds had a huge 2nd inning, scoring five of their six runs. As for the Cubs, they scored their only three runs in the 6th. Heading into the game, the Reds were the slight underdogs at +111.
Tony Santillan only went one inning for the Reds but didn’t give up a run or a hit. Nick Martinez got the win out of the bullpen, and Alexis Díaz got the save. Justin Steele had a rough outing for the Cubs, giving up five earned runs in five innings of work.
Cincinnati’s offense was led by Santiago Espinal, who went 4/4 with a home run. He scored twice and drove in two runs. Tyler Stephenson also had a three-hit game for the Reds.
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction
Chicago will be on the road for today’s matchup vs. the Reds, and they are looking to snap a two-game losing streak, as they are 51-58 overall this season. The Cubs trail the Brewers by 11 games in the NL Central and are 5th in the division. So far, they have gone just 13-25 in divisional games.
As the road underdog, the Cubs are 18-25 this season compared to 23-27 as the favorite. Chicago is on a two-game winning streak as the underdog overall, and their series record is 12-18-3 this year. At home, the Cubs are 27-25.
When betting the run line this season, the Cubs have been a better play on the road than at home. They are 33-24 ATS on the run line away from Wrigley Field, compared to 19-33 ATS at home. They have covered the run line in two straight games as the underdog and are 39-20 ATS as the underdog this season. The Cubs’ average run differential in their wins is +3.4 runs, while it is -3.2 runs in their losses.
When the Chicago Cubs are on the road this season, the over/under line has been set at 9.5 runs for just the ninth time in 2022. Their games have averaged 8.3 runs per game, and their overall over/under record is 45-60. The Cubs have gone over the 9.5-run line in five of the eight games where it has been set at that number. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs.
The Cubs are sending Kyle Hendricks to the mound today vs. the Reds, and he will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Royals. In that start, he gave up six earned runs in five innings of work. Hendricks has a record of 2-9 this season and an ERA of 6.95. Looking at his home/road splits, he is 1-5 on the road with a 7.91 ERA compared to 1-4 at home with a 6.53 ERA. Per nine innings, Hendricks is averaging 6.27 strikeouts and 2.69 walks. So far, he has made 14 starts and 19 appearances.
Chicago’s offense has been one of the worst in the league this season, averaging just 4.1 runs per game, which is 26th in the MLB. They have also struggled in the power department, coming into the game ranked 20th in home runs. As a team, the Cubs are batting just .232, and their team OPS of .683 is also towards the bottom of the league’s rankings.
Isaac Paredes and Ian Happ are tied for the team lead in home runs this season, with 16 apiece. Happ also has the most RBIs on the team, with 60. Nico Hoerner and Seiya Suzuki have been two of the Cubs’ most consistent hitters this season, with Hoerner batting .250 and Suzuki at .268. Suzuki has gone 9/30 in his last eight games, with two homers.
Cincinnati will take on the Cubs today with an overall record of 52-55, which has them 4th in the NL Central. Currently, they are nine games behind the Brewers for the division lead. The Reds have gone 14-14 in divisional games this year and have won two straight games overall.
At home, the Reds are 27-28 this year and have gone 25-27 on the road. As the favorite, Cincinnati is 26-23 this year and 26-32 as the underdog. They have won two straight at home as the favorite. So far, the Reds’ overall series record is 11-19-3, and they are currently up 2-0 in this series vs. the Cubs.
The Reds have been a solid run line team this season, going 57-50 overall. They have been especially good on the road, where they are 32-20 against the run line. Their average run margin for the season is +0.4 runs per game, and they have been a better run line team as the underdog, going 36-22.
The Cincinnati Reds have had a high over/under record this season, with a combined run average of 8.4 runs per game. Their over/under record is 46-57, and their games have averaged a line of 9 runs. When the line has been set at 9.5 runs, the over has hit at a 65.4% clip, with a record of 17-9. Their games have had lines set at 9.5 runs only five times this season, accounting for just 4.7% of their games. They are currently on a five-game under streak.
Cincinnati is sending left-hander Nick Lodolo to the mound today vs. the Cubs. He has made 16 starts this season and has a record of 8-3 with a 3.45 ERA. Lodolo’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.11. Out of his 16 starts, he has turned in seven quality starts and is averaging 9.26 strikeouts per nine innings. Lodolo most recently faced the Rays, where he went 6 2/3 innings, giving up two earned runs, and finished with a no-decision. He has not taken a loss since June 30th.
Elly De La Cruz has been swinging a hot bat for the Reds of late, going 9/25 in his last six games, including one home run. For the season, he is batting .262 with 18 homers, which is 13th in the MLB. De La Cruz’s 45 RBIs is 3rd on the team. Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario are also near the top of the Reds’ home run leaderboard, but both are batting under .240 for the season.
As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game and are 15th in home runs. However, they are just 20th in batting average and have the 25th worst strikeout rate in the league. Currently, Nick Martini is on a three-game hitting streak, while Santiago Espinal has a hit in 10 straight games.
Our pick for this Cubs vs. Reds matchup is to take the Reds on the money line at -151. We have the Reds winning this one by a score of 6-5. With the over/under sitting at 9.5 runs, there isn’t a lot of wiggle room on either side, as we have this one finishing with 11 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we actually have Nick Lodolo finishing with more strikeouts than Kyle Hendricks, as we have Lodolo finishing with seven K’s and Hendricks with five. If you’re looking for a parlay, you could look to take Lodolo’s strikeout total and pair that with a Reds win.
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Betting Tips
- Take the Reds on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Cubs (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Luke Maile | Out | Back |
| Emilio Pagán | Out | Lat |
| Brent Suter | Out | Shoulder |
| Austin Wynns | Out | Teres Major |
| Nick Martini | Out | Thumb |
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Graham Ashcraft | Out | Elbow |
| Brandon Williamson | Out | Shoulder |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Yency Almonte | Out | Shoulder |
| Colten Brewer | Out | Hand |
| Tomás Nido | Out | Knee |
| Keegan Thompson | Out | Ribs |
| Adbert Alzolay | Out | Forearm |
| Ben Brown | Out | Neck |
| Hayden Wesneski | Out | Forearm |
| Luke Little | Out | Shoulder |
| Caleb Kilian | Out | Teres Major |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Oblique |
