Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Preview
From Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, we have the Cubs and Reds facing off in an NL Central matchup. The Reds are slight money line favorites, and the over/under line is at 9 runs. Chicago comes in with a record of 51-56, while the Reds are 50-55. Carson Spiers is starting for the Reds, and the Cubs are going with Jameson Taillon.
First pitch for this one is set for 7:10 PM ET, and MARQ will be televising this game. The Cubs are on a two-game winning streak, and they are 5th in the NL Central, while the Reds are 4th.
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs Trends and Key Stats
- 3-2 is the record of Cubs in their last five road games. They have also gone 4-1 vs. the runline.
- On the other side, the Reds have gone 3-2 (SU) and 2-3 in their previous five home contests.
- Over the last ten games, Cubs has a record of 5-5 when playing as favorites and 5-5 when playing as underdogs.
- The Reds hold a 4-6 record as the favorite and a 6-4 record as the underdog.
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction
Heading into their last game vs. the Royals, the Cubs closed out the series with a 7-3 win. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at +154. Offensively, the Cubs scored their seven runs on jsonly 12 hits and didn’t hit a home run.
Javier Assad put together a good start for the Cubs, going six innings and giving up just three runs on five hits. He only had one strikeout in the outing and got the win.
Chicago is 51-56 overall, putting them 5th in the NL Central, 10 games behind the Brewers. The Cubs are 13-23 in divisional games this season. They head into today’s game having won two straight, and they are 5-5 across their last 10 games.
The Cubs have been good at home this year, going 27-25 but are just under .500 at 24-31 on the road. As the road favorite, the Cubs are 6-6 this year, and they are 23-25 as the favorite overall. Chicago will be looking to win their third straight game as the favorite on the road today.
When the Cubs are on the road, they have a run line record of 33-22, and they have covered the run line in each of their last two games. They have an average run margin of -0.4 runs per game on the road, but they have been able to cover the run line in more than 60% of their road games this season.
The Cubs have been playing in high-scoring games lately, with their last two going over the total. They have a combined run average of 8.3, and their over/under record is 45-58. When the over/under line is set at 9 runs, they have gone 5-7-2. Overall, they have played in just 14% of games with lines set at 9 runs or higher.
Right-hander Jameson Taillon gets the start for the Cubs today as he faces the Reds on the road. He has made 17 starts this season and has a record of 7-5 with a 2.96 ERA. Taillon’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.15. In his last outing, he took the loss, going 7 1/3 innings and giving up one earned run on four hits. Before that, he had won three straight starts. Taillon has made 10 quality starts this season and is averaging 7 strikeouts per nine innings.
Chicago’s offense is averaging just 4.1 runs per game this season, which is 24th in the league. They have been a bit better on the road (4.2 RPG) than at home (4.0 RPG). The Cubs are also just 17th in home runs and have a team batting average of .233, which is also 17th in the MLB.
Christopher Morel is leading the Cubs in homers this season, but he is batting just .199. Ian Happ is the team’s top run producer, with 60 RBIs, but he is batting just .232 for the year. Nico Hoerner is hitting .250 and has 33 RBIs, which is 6th in the league.
The Reds will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Rays with a 2-1 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 8th inning before the Rays scored two runs in the bottom of the 8th. Cincinnati was the -119 favorite on the money line going into the game.
Hunter Greene was excellent for the Reds, going seven innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just one walk and struck out five Rays batters. However, the Reds couldn’t close things out, and Fernando Cruz took the loss out of the bullpen. The Reds also wasted a big game from Elly De La Cruz, who went 3/4 with a run scored.
Cincinnati will host the Cubs today with an overall record of 50-55, which puts them 4th in the NL Central. The Reds are also 10 games behind the Brewers for the division lead, and they are 12-14 in the division this year. The Reds lost the final two games of their series vs. the Rays.
At home, the Reds are 25-28 this year, and they are just above .500 at 25-27 on the road. As the underdog, the Reds are 24-32 this year and 26-23 when favored. So far, their overall series record is 11-19-3.
When betting the run line, the Reds have been a better option on the road this season, going 32-20 compared to 23-30 at home. They have a positive run differential both at home and on the road, but their average run margin in winning games is much higher than in losing games, at +3.7 compared to -2.7.
Today’s over/under line for the Cincinnati Reds’ game against the Chicago Cubs is set at 9 runs. The Reds have had an average combined run average of 8.4 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 46-55. When the over/under line has been set at 9 runs, the Reds have gone under in 17 of 22 games. Their games have had over/under lines set at 9 runs in 30 of their 105 games this season, which is 28.6% of their games. The under has hit in each of their last three games.
Cincinnati is sending Carson Spiers to the mound today vs. the Cubs, and he has made 10 appearances and five starts this season. Spiers’ record is 3-2, and he has an ERA of 3.83. Looking at his overall numbers, opponents are batting .260 this season. One of his two quality starts came on July 12th vs. the Marlins, where he went five innings, giving up three earned runs and getting the win. In his last outing, he gave up four earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. Spiers has allowed at least one homer in three straight outings.
Elly De La Cruz has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/27 in his last seven games, including one home run and six runs scored. For the season, he is batting .263 with a team-leading 18 home runs. Spencer Steer has also been a good power source for the Reds, as he has 15 homers and 64 RBIs, which is 13th best in the league.
As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. They have been a pretty good home run hitting team this season, but are batting just .228 as a team. The Reds are also near the bottom of the league in terms of on-base percentage and have the 22nd most strikeouts in the league.
At -109, we see the Reds as a great value pick to win this one at home against the Cubs. Our predicted final score is 6-4 in favor of the Reds. If you’re looking for a payout, we would recommend taking the Reds on the money line.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Carson Spiers of the Reds is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which is good for fourth-best among starters. As for Jameson Taillon, his projection of four strikeouts has him near the bottom of today’s starters.
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Betting Tips
- We like the Reds on the moneyline (-109)
- The Reds are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 10 runs, we like the over
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Luke Maile | Out | Back |
| Emilio Pagán | Out | Lat |
| Brent Suter | Out | Shoulder |
| Nick Martini | Out | Thumb |
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Graham Ashcraft | Out | Elbow |
| Brandon Williamson | Out | Shoulder |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Carson Spiers | Out | Shoulder |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Cody Bellinger | Out | Finger |
| Yency Almonte | Out | Shoulder |
| Colten Brewer | Out | Hand |
| Tomás Nido | Out | Knee |
| Keegan Thompson | Out | Ribs |
| Adbert Alzolay | Out | Forearm |
| Ben Brown | Out | Neck |
| Hayden Wesneski | Out | Forearm |
| Luke Little | Out | Shoulder |
| Caleb Kilian | Out | Teres Major |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Oblique |
