Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Preview
Chicago and Cincinnati are both 31-33 heading into Saturday’s matchup, which is set for 4:10 PM ET from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH. The Reds are currently on a six-game winning streak, and they are the slight favorite on the money line (-118). The money line odds for the Cubs are sitting at +100.
Ben Brown will be on the mound for the Cubs, and the Reds are starting Andrew Abbott. This game will be televised on BSOH, and the Cubs are 4th in the NL Central, while the Reds are 3rd.
Check out BetCoco for Cincinnati Reds – Chicago Cubs odds
Cincinnati Reds Trends and Key Stats
- The Cubs are 1-4 in their five most recent road games, including a 2-3 runline record.
- The Reds, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 4-1 (SU) and 4-1 record.
- In their last ten games as the favorite, the Reds have a record of 7-3 straight-up, and have gone 6-4 against the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Cubs have a straight-up record of 3-7 and a 5-5 record vs. the runline.
Cincinnati picked up a 3-2 win over the Cubs in the most recent game of this series. The Reds had a two-run 4th inning and scored the game’s final run in the 5th. As for the Cubs, they scored their only two runs in the 9th. Heading into the game, the Reds were favored at -136 on the money line.
Nick Lodolo started for the Reds and picked up the win, going six innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with seven strikeouts but issued two walks. Justin Steele got the start for the Cubs and took the loss, giving up three earned runs in seven innings of work.
Dansby Swanson hit the game’s only home run while going 1/4 with two RBIs, but it came in a losing effort. Tyler Stephenson had a two RBI game at the plate for the Reds.
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction
Chicago is 31-33 overall and is 6.5 games behind the Brewers for the NL Central lead. The Cubs are also 4-6 in the last 10 games and have dropped two straight games, both coming in this series vs. the Reds. So far, they are just 7-14 against other NL Central teams.
At home, the Cubs have gone 18-13 this year and are only 13-20 on the road. As the road underdog, the Cubs are 9-16 this season and have lost four straight on the road. Chicago’s overall series record is 8-10-2 this year.
Chicago has been a solid run line team on the road this season, going 19-14 against the run line. Their overall run line record is 31-33, but they have been much better on the road than at home. The Cubs have been a better play against the run line as an underdog, going 24-12, compared to just 7-21 as the favorite.
The Chicago Cubs are on the road against the Cincinnati Reds today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 9 runs. The Cubs have a combined run average of 8.9 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 30-31. When the over/under line is set at 9 runs, the Cubs have a record of 3-4-2. So far this season, only 10.9% of the Cubs’ games have had over/under lines set at 9 runs or higher.
Right-hander Ben Brown is starting for the Cubs today as he faces the Reds on the road. He has made seven starts this year and has a record of 1-2 with a 3.33 ERA. Brown’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.09. In his 14 appearances, he has turned in two quality starts and is averaging 10.69 strikeouts per nine innings. Brown’s last outing came on June 2nd, where he took the loss, giving up five earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had not given up a run in three straight outings.
Christopher Morel has been swinging the bat well of late for the Cubs, going 5/19 with two homers over his last six games. Morel is also the team’s leader in RBIs and is 9th in the league in homers. Cody Bellinger and Michael Busch are tied for 2nd on the team with eight homers apiece, with Bellinger batting .253 this season and Busch coming in at .244.
As a team, the Cubs are batting just .226 this season, which is 20th in the league. They are also just 17th in runs per game (4.3). However, they have been a bit better at home, averaging 4.4 runs per contest. Overall, they are 10th in home runs and have the 5th fewest strikeouts in the league.
Cincinnati is hosting the Cubs today with a record of 31-33, and they have won six straight games. Their six-game winning streak has them 6.5 games behind the Brewers for the NL Central lead. So far, they are 6-5 in divisional games.
At home, the Reds are 16-17 this season compared to 15-16 on the road. Cincinnati has won two straight at home and have gone 7-3 overall in their last 10 games. This year, they are 16-12 as the favorite but just 15-21 as the underdog.
The Reds have been a solid run line bet this season, going 35-29 overall. They are 14-19 against the run line at home, where they have a negative run differential of -0.3 runs per game. However, they have been much better on the road, going 21-10 against the run line with a positive run differential of 0.8 runs per game.
The Cincinnati Reds host the Chicago Cubs today with an over/under line of 9 runs. The Reds have a combined run average of 8.6 runs per game, and their over/under record is 30-31 on the season. When the over/under line is set at 9 runs, their record is 1-8-2. So far this season, 32.8% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 9 runs.
Cincinnati is sending Andrew Abbott to the mound today vs. the Cubs, and he comes into the game with a record of 4-5 and an ERA of 3.39. So far this year, he has made 12 starts, and opponents are batting .228 off the left-hander. Abbott’s WHIP for the season is 1.15, and he has turned in five quality starts. In his most recent outing, Abbott gave up three earned runs in six innings of work, coming out with the win. Before that, he had given up at least two homers in two straight outings.
Elly De La Cruz comes into the game as the Reds’ home run leader, but he is batting just .237 for the season and has gone 9/44 in his last 10 games. However, he does have two homers in this stretch. Jeimer Candelario has also hit two homers in his last 10 games, batting .302 in this stretch and is on a seven-game hitting streak. Candelario is also 2nd on the team with eight homers.
Spencer Steer has driven in a team-high 40 runs for the Reds, which is 12th best in the league. He is also 3rd on the team with seven homers. Steer is batting .238 for the season, and his 40 RBIs are the best mark on the team. Tyler Stephenson has gone 12/36 in his last 10 games and is on an eight-game hitting streak.
Our prediction for today’s Cubs vs. Reds matchup is to take the Reds on the money line at -118. We have the Reds taking this one by a final score of 6-5, and with the payout for a Reds win sitting at -118, we see this as a great value.
Looking at some of the starting pitcher projections, Andrew Abbott is projected to finish with just five strikeouts, which has him as the 15th best among starters. As for Ben Brown, he is projected to finish with five strikeouts as well, which has him as the eighth worst among starters.
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Betting Tips
- Take the Reds on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Cubs (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Noelvi Marte | Out | Suspension |
| Brandon Williamson | Out | Shoulder |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Yency Almonte | Out | Shoulder |
| Colten Brewer | Out | Back |
| Seiya Suzuki | Questionable | Oblique |
| Adbert Alzolay | Out | Forearm |
| Julian Merryweather | Out | Ribs |
| Nico Hoerner | Probable | Hand |
| Caleb Kilian | Out | Teres Major |
