Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Preview
At 7:10 PM ET, the Cubs and Reds face off in an NL Central matchup. This one is being played at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, where the Reds are 30-33 overall. The Cubs have the second spot in the NL Central, with a record of 31-32. Chicago is favored on the money line today, and the over/under line is at 9 runs.
Justin Steele is starting for the Cubs, while the Reds are sending Nick Lodolo to the mound. Cincinnati comes into the game on a five-game winning streak, and they are just barely favored on the money line (-112). The Cubs are currently -106.
Check out BetCoco for Cincinnati Reds – Chicago Cubs odds
Cincinnati Reds Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Cubs are 1-4. This includes going 1-4 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Reds have a 4-1 (SU) record, along with a 4-1 record in their last five home contests.
- In the past ten games, when playing as the favorite, the Cubs have a record of 4-6, while as the underdog, they have a record of 3-7.
- In their last ten games, the Reds have a record of 6-4 as the favorite and 6-4 as the underdog.
Cincinnati picked up an 8-4 win over the Cubs in the most recent game of this series. The Reds had a huge 3rd inning, scoring seven of their eight runs. As for the Cubs, they scored their only two runs in the 6th. Heading into the game, the Reds were favored at -127 on the money line.
Hunter Greene got the win for the Reds, going 6 2/3 innings and giving up four runs. He finished the game with eight strikeouts but issued two walks. Javier Assad had a rough outing for the Cubs, taking the loss after going 5 2/3 innings and giving up five earned runs.
At the plate, the Reds were led by Will Benson, who went 2/4 with a home run and two RBIs. Tyler Stephenson also had a two-hit game and scored twice for Cincinnati’s offense.
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction
Chicago is 31-32 overall and 5.5 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. This season, they have gone just 7-13 in divisional games. The Cubs are on the road today, where they are 13-19 compared to 18-13 at home.
As the road favorite, the Cubs are 4-4 this season, and they are 15-13 when favored overall. Chicago has won two straight games when favored. They have an overall series record of 8-10-2 this year.
When betting the run line, the Cubs have been a better bet on the road this season, going 18-14 compared to 12-19 at home. They have a run differential of -0.9 runs per game on the road, but they have covered the run line in three straight road games. Chicago is 23-12 against the run line as an underdog this season, but just 7-21 as the favorite.
The Cubs have been involved in a lot of high-scoring games this season, with their games averaging a combined 9.0 runs per game. Their over/under record for the season is 30-30, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. When the over/under line has been set at 9 runs, their record is 3-4-2. The over has hit in their last three games.
Left-hander Justin Steele gets the start for the Cubs today as he faces the Reds on the road. He has made seven starts this season and has a record of 0-2 with an ERA of 4.10. Opponents are batting .234 off Steele this season, and he has a WHIP of 1.21. In his 37 1/3 innings of work, Steele has allowed six home runs. One of his outings was a quality start, and he is coming off a game in which he gave up one earned run in five innings of work. Steele finished with a no-decision in that outing. Per nine innings, he is averaging 8.68 strikeouts and 2.65 walks.
Christopher Morel is currently on a three-game hitting streak for the Cubs and has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 7/28 with three homers over his last nine games. Overall, he is batting just .205 for the season. Cody Bellinger is also swinging a good bat right now, hitting .278 over his last nine games and has gone deep eight times this season, which is 2nd on the team. Bellinger’s 29 RBIs are the 2nd most on the team.
As a team, the Cubs are batting just .227 and are averaging 4.4 runs per game. This is 16th in the league and is considered below average. Their team on-base percentage of .309 is also below the league average.
Cincinnati is hosting the Cubs today with a record of 30-33, which has them 4th in the NL Central. The Reds are 6.5 games behind the Brewers for the division lead. So far, they are 5-5 in divisional games. The Reds have won five straight games coming into today’s matchup.
The Reds have won two straight series and have an overall series record of 7-12-1 this year. At home, they are 6-6 as the underdog this season. Overall, they are 15-17 at home compared to 15-16 on the road. So far, they have been both good as the favorite and underdog, as they are 15-12 as the favorite and 15-21 as the underdog.
When betting the Reds on the run line, it’s been more profitable to do so on the road, where they are 21-10. They are 14-18 vs. the run line at home. They are 14-13 vs. the run line as the favorite and 21-15 as the underdog. Their average run differential in winning games is +3.9, while it’s -3.1 in losses. Their overall run differential is +0.2.
Today’s over/under line of 9 runs is slightly below the Cincinnati Reds’ season average of 9.2 runs per game. The Reds have gone over the total in 30 of their 60 games this season, and their games have averaged a combined 8.6 runs per game. When the over/under line has been set at 9 runs, the Reds have gone over the total just once in 11 games. Their last two games have gone over the total, and the over is 3-2 in their last five games.
Left-hander Nick Lodolo gets the start for the Reds today vs. the Cubs and comes into the game with a record of 5-2 and an ERA of 3.11. Lodolo has made three quality starts in a row and has a WHIP of .99 for the season. In his 46 1/3 innings of work, he has allowed just four homers. Lodolo’s ERA at home is 3.93, compared to 2.57 on the road. His most recent outing came vs. the Cubs, where he got the win, going six innings and giving up two earned runs. Lodolo finished with seven strikeouts in that outing.
Elly De La Cruz has been swinging a hot bat for the Reds of late, going 6/23 in his last five games with two homers and five RBIs. Overall, he is batting .240 with a team-leading 11 homers. Spencer Steer has also provided some pop in the lineup, as he is 3rd on the team with seven homers and is batting .242.
As a team, the Reds are 12th in the league in scoring, averaging 4.4 runs per game. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.7 runs per contest. So far, they have been a below-average hitting team, with a team batting average of just .229.
Our prediction for today’s Cubs vs. Reds game is that the Reds will pick up the win at home by a score of 6-5. Given that they are at -112 on the money line, this is the bet we would recommend making.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Justin Steele finishing with six strikeouts. As for Nick Lodolo, he is projected to finish with seven K’s. If you’re looking for a long-shot bet, you could look to the Reds to win and pair that with Lodolo finishing with the most strikeouts among all starters.
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Betting Tips
- We like the Reds on the moneyline (-112)
- The Reds are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Cincinnati Reds Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | Questionable | Hand |
| Ian Gibaut | Out | Forearm |
| Matt McLain | Out | Shoulder |
| Noelvi Marte | Out | Suspension |
| Brandon Williamson | Out | Shoulder |
| Tejay Antone | Out | Elbow |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Out | Wrist |
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Yency Almonte | Out | Shoulder |
| Colten Brewer | Out | Back |
| Keegan Thompson | Out | Illness |
| Adbert Alzolay | Out | Forearm |
| Julian Merryweather | Out | Ribs |
| Nico Hoerner | Questionable | Hand |
| Caleb Kilian | Out | Teres Major |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Forearm |
