Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox Preview
From Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago, we have the Red Sox and White Sox facing off in an AL matchup. Boston is 3rd in the AL East with a record of 32-33, while the White Sox are 5th in the AL Central at 17-48. Chris Flexen will start for the White Sox, and the Red Sox are starting Zack Kelly.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite today, with their money line odds sitting at -165 compared to the White Sox at +136. Sunday’s over/under line is at 9 runs, and the game can be seen on NESN.
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Chicago White Sox Trends and Key Stats
- Over the course of their previous five away games, the Red Sox have recorded a 2-3 record, with a 2-3 performance on the runline.
- In the White Sox’s five most recent home games, their record stands at 0-5 (SU) with 3-2 against the spread.
- The Red Sox have a 4-6 straight-up record in their last ten games as the favorite, and 3-7 against the runline.
- As the underdog, the White Sox have gone 5-5 vs. the runline and 5-5 straight-up.
Chicago cruised to an easy 6-1 win over the Red Sox in the most recent game of this series. The White Sox had a huge 5th inning, scoring five of their six runs. As for the Red Sox, they scored their only run in the 5th. Heading into the game, the White Sox were at +195 on the money line.
Nick Nastrini only went 4 1/3 innings for the White Sox but gave up just one hit and one earned run. Tanner Banks came out of the bullpen for the win. Brayan Bello had a rough outing for the Red Sox, going just 4 2/3 innings and giving up five runs on nine hits.
Gavin Sheets and Paul DeJong each homered for the White Sox, while Lenyn Sosa scored twice and drove in two runs while going 2/4. Bobby Dalbec hit the Red Sox’s only home run.
Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox Prediction
Boston is 32-33 overall, and they are 3rd in the AL East, 12.5 games behind the Yankees for the division lead. The Red Sox have dropped two straight games, and they are 5-8 in the division this year. Boston’s overall series record is 8-9-3, and they have gone 4-6 over their last 10 games.
At home, the Red Sox are 14-18 this season and 18-15 on the road. As the road favorite, Boston has gone 7-2 this season. Overall, they are 18-14 as the favorite compared to 14-19 as the underdog.
The Red Sox are 29-36 against the run line this season, and they are 19-14 on the run line on the road. Their average run differential is +0.4 runs per game, and they are scoring 1.3 more runs per game on the road than at home. They have failed to cover the run line in two straight road games and are 18-15 on the run line as an underdog.
The Red Sox are on the road against the White Sox today, and the over/under line is set at 9 runs. Boston’s games have averaged 8.5 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 27-33. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs, and their over/under record when the line is set at 9 runs is 3-1-2. Only 12.3% of their games have had over/under lines set at 9 runs or higher.
Right-hander Zack Kelly is getting the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the White Sox on the road. He has made 13 appearances this season but has not made a start, finishing with a no-decision in each outing. Kelly’s ERA for the season is 2.00, along with a record of 0-1. Opponents are batting just .157 off Kelly this season. His WHIP is currently 1.17. The most recent outing for Kelly came on June 8th, where he gave up a home run and one earned run in one-third of an inning of work. He has allowed a home run in two of his last three outings.
As a team, the Red Sox are averaging 4.5 runs per game, which is 10th in the league. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game. Boston is also among the league leaders in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.
Rafael Devers has been the Red Sox’s top power threat this season, as his 13 homers is the best mark on the team and 9th in the league. Devers is also hitting .284 for the season and has gone 9/29 with three homers in his last eight games. Ceddanne Rafaela has gone deep seven times this season but is batting just .216.
With an overall record of 17-48, the White Sox are 5th in the AL Central and trail the Guardians by 25 games. So far, they have really struggled against other AL Central teams, going 5-19 this season. Chicago has picked up two straight wins, and these have come after losing eight in a row.
Chicago has gone just 5-26 on the road this year, but they have been a bit better at home, where they are 12-22. The White Sox have won two straight at home, and they are 9-22 as the home underdog this year. So far, they have been good as the favorite, going 3-0. Looking at their overall series record, the White Sox are 4-15-1 and have dropped six straight series.
The White Sox have been a solid bet against the run line at home this season, going 17-17. They are 28-37 overall, with an average run differential of -2.2. They have covered the run line in two straight games and are 3-0 as the favorite.
Chicago White Sox games have averaged 8.3 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 31-31. When the over/under line is set at 9 runs, their record is 2-6-1. Only 4.6% of their games have had over/under lines set at 9 runs, and their average over/under line for the season is 8 runs.
Through 11 starts, Chris Flexen has a record of 2-5 and an ERA of 5.19 for the White Sox. He has made two quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he allowed just one earned run in five innings of work. In that outing vs. the Cubs, he gave up three hits, issued three walks, and didn’t allow a home run. Flexen’s ERA at home is 7.04 compared to 4.53 on the road. Opponents are batting .248 off the right-hander this season.
Heading into today’s game, the White Sox are last in the league in both on-base percentage and OPS. As a team, they are batting just .218, and their 3.1 runs per game is also the worst in the league. Chicago has also struggled in the power department, as they are just 20th in home runs and have a collective slugging percentage of .342.
Paul DeJong has been one of the few bright spots in the White Sox lineup, as his 11 home runs is 11th in the league and leads the team. He is also 2nd on the team in RBIs. DeJong has gone deep three times in his last six games, while batting .286 over that stretch. Andrew Vaughn has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 8/20 in his last five games with two homers.
Our predicted score for this one is a 6-5 win for the White Sox, and with them paying out at +136 on the money line, that is the direction we would recommend going. Looking at the Red Sox, they are projected to finish with 8 hits compared to the White Sox with nine.
Starting pitcher Chris Flexen is predicted to finish with five strikeouts, and he is currently 14th in our starting pitcher rankings for today. If you’re looking for a player prop bet, you could look to take Flexen’s strikeout total and take the over if it’s at four or five.
Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox Betting Tips
- Take the Red Sox on the moneyline
- On the run line we like White Sox (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Chicago White Sox Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Max Stassi | Out | Hip |
| Dominic Leone | Out | Elbow |
| Tommy Pham | Out | Ankle |
| Mike Clevinger | Out | Elbow |
| Andrew Benintendi | Out | Achilles |
| Eloy Jiménez | Out | Hamstring |
| Yoán Moncada | Out | Groin |
| Matt Foster | Out | Elbow |
| Jimmy Lambert | Out | Shoulder |
| Jesse Scholtens | Out | Elbow |
| Dominic Fletcher | Out | Shoulder |
| Steven Wilson | Out | Back |
| Shane Drohan | Out | Shoulder |
Boston Red Sox Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Liam Hendriks | Out | Elbow |
| Chris Martin | Out | Anxiety |
| Trevor Story | Out | Shoulder |
| Tyler O’Neill | Questionable | Knee |
| Rafael Devers | Doubtful | Knee |
| Lucas Giolito | Out | Elbow |
| Bryan Mata | Out | Lat |
| Triston Casas | Out | Ribs |
| Garrett Whitlock | Out | Oblique |
| Romy Gonzalez | Out | Hamstring |
| Vaughn Grissom | Out | Hamstring |
| Chris Murphy | Out | Elbow |
| Wilyer Abreu | Out | Ankle |
| Masataka Yoshida | Out | Thumb |
