Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Preview
First pitch for Sunday’s Cardinals vs. Cubs matchup is set for 7:10 PM ET from Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL. The Cubs are the betting favorite, with their money line odds sitting at -150, while the Cardinals are at +128 on the money line. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.
On the mound, we have Miles Mikolas for the Cardinals and Justin Steele for the Cubs. Chicago comes into the game with a record of 54-59, while the Cardinals are 57-54 overall. This game will be televised on ESPN.
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Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Cardinals are 2-3. This includes going 1-4 vs. the runline.
- The Cubs, on the other hand, have played five home games recently, during which they have recorded a 3-2 (SU) and 3-2 record.
- The Cubs have a straight-up record of 4-6 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 3-7 record vs. the runline.
- Looking at the Cardinals’ previous ten games as the underdog they are 5-5 straight-up and 8-2 vs. the runline.
It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Cardinals vs Cubs series. St. Louis went into the matchup as slight underdogs at -107 and squeaked out a 5-4 win. The Cardinals had a three-run 8th inning, and the Cubs could only muster one run in the 9th.
Both teams finished the game with nine hits, and the Cubs actually had more extra-base hits with three compared to the Cardinals’ one. St. Louis also had six more strikeouts than the Cubs’ eight.
Kyle Gibson got the win for the Cardinals, going seven innings and giving up four earned runs. JoJo Romero got the save. Hector Neris took the loss for Chicago out of the bullpen.
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction
St. Louis is 57-54 overall and trails the Brewers by 5.5 games in the NL Central. The Cardinals are 17-18 against other teams in the division. They will be on the road today, coming in with a road record of 28-29. St. Louis has gone 29-27 as the favorite this year.
The Cardinals have struggled as of late, going 4-6 over their last 10. Currently, they are 5.5 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. So far, they are losing their series vs. the Cubs, 1-2, heading into today’s game four.
When the Cardinals win, they win big, with an average run margin of +2.7. When they lose, they lose by an average of -3.6 runs per game. They are 56-55 vs. the run line this season, with a slight overall run differential of -0.3 runs per game. They have been a better bet on the run line as the underdog, going 37-18, compared to 19-37 as the favorite.
The St. Louis Cardinals are on the road against the Chicago Cubs today, and the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. The Cardinals have a combined run average of 8.7 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 55-53. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, the Cardinals have gone over the total in 27 out of 41 games this season. The over has hit in six straight games for the Cardinals.
Right-hander Miles Mikolas is starting for the Cardinals today as he faces the Cubs on the road. He has made 22 starts this season and has a record of 8-8 with an ERA of 5.00. Mikolas’ WHIP for the season is currently 1.23. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up three earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Mikolas has made 13 quality starts this year and is averaging 6.01 strikeouts per nine innings. For the season, he has allowed 18 home runs.
Over his last 10 games, Paul Goldschmidt has been swinging a hot bat for the Cardinals, going 12/38 with three homers and five RBIs. This has helped him improve his season batting average to just .234. Goldschmidt’s 17 homers are the 2nd most on the team. Alec Burleson and Nolan Gorman are tied for the team lead in homers, with 19 apiece.
St. Louis comes into the game averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 21st in the league. They have been a little better at home, averaging 4.4 runs per game. So far, they have been a below-average power-hitting team, as their collective ISO is just .142, which is 21st in the league.
Chicago is 5th in the NL Central at 54-59, putting them 9.5 games behind the Brewers for the division lead. So far, they have gone just 16-26 against their NL Central foes. The Cubs are looking to pick up a win today, as they trail the Reds by a half-game for 4th place in the division.
At home, the Cubs are 29-26 this year compared to 25-33 on the road. Chicago has really struggled as the favorite this year, going just 24-28. As for their record as the underdog, they are 30-31 and have gone 18-20 as the home favorite. The Cubs’ overall series record is 12-19-3, and they have dropped two straight series at home.
Chicago has been a tough team to predict against the run line this season, as they have an even run differential on the year. They have a losing record against the run line overall, but have been profitable on the road, where they are 34-24. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 41-20 against the run line in those games.
The over/under line for today’s game between the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals is set at 8.5 runs. The Cubs have an over/under record of 49-60 on the season, and their games have had an average combined run total of 8.4. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, the Cubs have a record of 14-13. Overall, 32 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, accounting for 28.3% of their contests. The Cubs are currently on a four-game over streak.
Left-hander Justin Steele gets the start for the Cubs today as he takes on the Cardinals at home. He has made 17 starts this season and has a record of 2-5 with a 3.38 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Steele has a WHIP of 1.10 and opponents are batting .219 this season. In his last outing, Steele took the loss, giving up five earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had put together two straight solid outings, giving up a combined two earned runs in 12 1/3 innings of work.
Heading into today’s game, Nico Hoerner is on a seven-game hitting streak for the Cubs and is batting .257 for the season. Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes are both tied for 2nd on the team with 16 homers, with Suzuki batting .272 and Paredes at just .238. Ian Happ is the team’s top power threat, with 17 homers, but he is batting just .228.
Overall, the Cubs offense is averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 23rd in the league. Their team batting average is just .233, and they are 19th in home runs. As a team, they are 21st in slugging percentage and OPS. Currently, they are 6th in team walks.
With the Cardinals listed at +128 on the money line, we see this as a great value pick for today’s Cardinals vs. Cubs matchup. Our predicted final score is 5-4 in favor of the Cardinals, giving us a few runs of cushion in terms of the over/under line, which is sitting at 8.5 runs.
Looking at today’s starting pitchers, we have Justin Steele finishing with five strikeouts compared to Miles Mikolas with four. However, we actually have Steele’s chances of picking up a win as being slightly better than Mikolas, but we still like the Cardinals to come out on top.
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips
- We like the Cardinals on the moneyline (+128)
- The Cardinals are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Yency Almonte | Out | Shoulder |
| Colten Brewer | Out | Hand |
| Tomás Nido | Out | Knee |
| Keegan Thompson | Out | Ribs |
| Adbert Alzolay | Out | Forearm |
| Ben Brown | Out | Neck |
| Hayden Wesneski | Out | Forearm |
| Luke Little | Out | Shoulder |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Oblique |
St. Louis Cardinals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Lance Lynn | Out | Knee |
| Steven Matz | Out | Back |
| Keynan Middleton | Out | Forearm |
| Drew Rom | Out | Biceps |
| Michael Siani | Questionable | Oblique |
| Riley O’Brien | Out | Forearm |
