Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Preview
From Wrigley Field in Chicago, the Cardinals and Cubs face off in an NL Central matchup. First pitch for this one is set for 2:20 PM ET, and BSMW is carrying the game on TV.
The money line odds have the Cardinals at -102 compared to the Cubs at -117, and the over/under line is at 8 runs. Kyle Gibson is starting for the Cardinals, and the Cubs are starting Jameson Taillon. The Cubs are currently on a three-game winning streak, and they are 4th in the NL Central, while the Cardinals are 2nd with a record of 56-54.
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Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Trends and Key Stats
- 1-4 is the record of Cardinals in their last five road games. They have also gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
- On the other side, the Cubs have gone 3-2 (SU) and 3-2 in their previous five home contests.
- In the past ten games, when playing as the favorite, the Cardinals have a record of 4-6, while as the underdog, they have a record of 5-5.
- In their last ten games, the Cubs have a record of 4-6 as the favorite and 7-3 as the underdog.
Chicago picked up a 6-3 win over the Cardinals in the most recent game of this series. The Cubs offense got off to a fast start, scoring five of their six runs in the 2nd inning. On the other side, the Cardinals scored their only three runs in the 8th. Heading into the game, the Cubs were at -102 on the money line.
Javier Assad only went four innings for the Cubs but gave up just one run and struck out three. He picked up a win in the game, while Hector Neris got the save. Erick Fedde had a rough outing for the Cardinals, taking the loss.
Christian Bethancourt and Michael Busch each homered for the Cubs, while Seiya Suzuki went 2/4 with an RBI. Masyn Winn had a two-hit game for the Cardinals.
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction
St. Louis is 56-54 overall and 6.5 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. The Cardinals have dropped two straight games and lost their series vs. the Braves before that. This year, they are 16-18 in divisional games.
At home, the Cardinals are 29-25 this season, and they are just above .500 at 27-29 on the road. As the favorite, St. Louis is 29-27 and 27-27 as the underdog. St. Louis has dropped three straight games on the road, and their overall series record is 17-14-3. Heading into today’s game, the Cardinals have dropped the first two games of this series vs. the Cubs.
St. Louis is 28-28 on the run line on the road, and their average run differential is -0.5 runs per game. The Cardinals are 36-18 against the run line as an underdog this season. They are 55-55 overall against the run line.
St. Louis is on the road in Chicago today, where the over/under line is set at 8 runs. The Cardinals and their opponents have combined to average 8.7 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 54-53. When the line is set at 8 runs, their over/under record is 8-11-1. So far this season, 58.2% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 8 runs, and their over streak is at 5 games.
Right-hander Kyle Gibson gets the start for the Cardinals today as he faces the Cubs on the road. He has made 20 starts this season and has a record of 7-4 with a 3.97 ERA. Opponents are batting .245 off Gibson this season, and he has a total of nine quality starts. In his last outing, Gibson took the loss, going five innings and giving up two earned runs on six hits. Before that, he had gone 6 2/3 innings without giving up an earned run. Gibson’s ERA on the road is 3.37 compared to 5.01 at home.
St. Louis has been one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams this season, but they have been a bit below average in terms of runs scored and have the 21st ranked scoring offense in the MLB. As a team, the Cardinals are batting .246, which is 9th in the league, and they have been averaging 4.2 runs per game. One area they will look to improve on is their collective isolated power, as their .141 mark is 21st in the league.
Over his last five games, Masyn Winn has gone 7/23 with two homers and three RBIs. For the season, he is hitting .283 and is 1st on the team with eight homers. Alec Burleson has been a consistent power threat for the Cardinals this season, as his 18 homers is 2nd on the team and 15th in the MLB. His 63 RBIs are the best mark on the team.
With their three-game winning streak, the Cubs have improved to 54-58 overall, and they are 9.5 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. Currently, they are 4th in the division and trail the Pirates by 2.5 games for the 3rd spot in the division. So far, they have gone just 16-25 in divisional games.
Chicago has won two straight games at home, and they are 29-25 at Wrigley Field this year. On the road, the Cubs are 25-33 this season. As the underdog, the Cubs are 30-31 this year, and they have won four straight as the underdog overall. Their series record is 12-19-3 this year, and they have dropped two straight series at home.
When the Cubs win, they win big, with an average run margin of +3.4 runs per game. That’s a big reason why they are 54-58 against the run line this season. They have been a better bet on the road (34-24) than at home (20-34) and have been a better bet as an underdog (41-20) than as a favorite (13-38).
Chicago Cubs games have gone over the total in three straight games, and the over/under record for the season is 48-60. The average over/under line for Cubs games this season is 8 runs, and the combined run average in their games is 8.4 runs per game. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, the Cubs’ over/under record is 5-14-1. 51.8% of their games this season have had over/under lines set at over 8 runs, while 30.4% have had lines set under 8 runs.
Chicago is sending Jameson Taillon to the mound today vs. the Cardinals, and he comes into the game with a record of 7-6 and an ERA of 3.35. Looking back at his last outing, Taillon took the loss, giving up six earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work vs. the Reds. Before that, he had won three straight starts. Taillon has made 18 starts this year, and opponents are batting .240 vs. the right-hander. For the season, he has allowed 14 homers. Per nine innings, Taillon is averaging just 1.89 walks compared to 7.05 strikeouts.
Over his last nine games, Seiya Suzuki has been on fire for the Cubs, going 14/35 with three homers and seven RBIs. For the season, Suzuki is batting .275 with 16 homers, which is the 2nd most on the team. Ian Happ is the team’s home run leader with 17, but he is batting just .230 for the season. Happ’s 62 RBIs are the best on the team.
As a team, the Cubs are batting just .234, and they are averaging 4.2 runs per contest. This is the 22nd best mark in the league. Overall, they are 18th in home runs and have the 18th best slugging percentage in the majors.
We see the Cubs taking this one at home with a final score of 6-5. Given that they are at -117 on the money line, this is the route we recommend taking. Looking at the starters, we have Jameson Taillon finishing with four strikeouts, and Kyle Gibson with five.
Offensively, we have the Cardinals finishing with nine hits and the Cubs with nine. However, the Cubs are projected to have a higher run total, finishing with six, compared to the Cardinals at five.
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Tips
- We like the Cubs on the moneyline (-117)
- The Cubs are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Yency Almonte | Out | Shoulder |
| Colten Brewer | Out | Hand |
| Tomás Nido | Out | Knee |
| Keegan Thompson | Out | Ribs |
| Adbert Alzolay | Out | Forearm |
| Ben Brown | Out | Neck |
| Hayden Wesneski | Out | Forearm |
| Luke Little | Out | Shoulder |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Oblique |
St. Louis Cardinals Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Lance Lynn | Out | Knee |
| Steven Matz | Out | Back |
| Keynan Middleton | Out | Forearm |
| Drew Rom | Out | Biceps |
| Riley O’Brien | Out | Forearm |
