Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Preview
At 7:40 PM ET, the Padres and Cubs will square off in an NL matchup. This one is being played at Wrigley Field in Chicago and features a Cubs club that is 21-14. As for the Padres, they are 18-19 overall.
Monday night’s pitching matchup is Yu Darvish for the Padres up against Justin Steele for the Cubs. Chicago is the slight favorite at -121 on the money line, and the over/under line is sitting at 7 runs.
Check out BetCoco for Chicago Cubs – San Diego Padres odds
Chicago Cubs Trends and Key Stats
- Across their last five road games, the Padres are 3-2. This includes going 3-2 vs. the runline.
- Conversely, the Cubs have achieved a 2-3 (SU) record and 2-3 record in their last five home games.
- Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Cubs have a straight-up record of 5-5, while going 3-7 against the runline.
- Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Padres have a 4-6 straight-up record and a 4-6 record vs. the runline.
Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Prediction
The Padres will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Diamondbacks with an 11-4 loss. San Diego was actually the slight favorite on the money line going into the game but fell behind big early, as the Diamondbacks scored four times in the first.
Offensively, the Padres only had four fewer hits than the Diamondbacks but scored just two runs. Both of their runs came in the 2nd inning. Jackson Merrill hit a homer for the Padres but went just ‘two innings, giving up seven earned runs. Matt Waldron took the loss out of the bullpen, as the Padres couldn’t dig themselves out of the early hole.
San Diego is 18-19 overall this season, and they trail the Dodgers by 5.5 games in the NL West. The Padres are coming off a series win over the Diamondbacks and have an NL West division record of 10-9. At home, the Padres are just 8-12 this year, but they have gone 10-7 on the road.
As the favorite, the Padres are 12-11 this year and 6-8 as the underdog. They have an overall series record of 6-5-2 and have won two straight series. San Diego’s overall series record is 6-5-2 this season, and they are 4-6 in their last ten games.
San Diego has been a good bet on the run line overall this season, going 19-18, but they’ve been especially profitable on the road, where they are 13-4. The Padres have an average run margin of +0.3 runs per game this season, but that number jumps to +1.5 runs per game on the road. They’ve been a much better bet on the run line as the underdog, going 9-5, compared to 10-13 as the favorite.
The Padres are on a two-game over streak, and their games have averaged 9.8 runs per game this season. Their over/under record is 20-16, and the average over/under line in their games has been 8 runs. The over/under line for today’s game against the Cubs is set at 7 runs, and the percentage of their games with over/under lines set at 7 runs is 0.0%. So far this season, the Padres have played 37 games with over/under lines set higher than 7 runs.
Yu Darvish will be looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up a run. Against the Reds on April 30th, he picked up the win, going five innings and giving up just three hits. Darvish finished with three strikeouts in the outing. So far this season, he has made six starts, and opponents are batting .213 off the right-hander. Darvish’s overall record is 1-1, and he has an ERA of 3.45. The only home run he has allowed in his last four outings came against the Dodgers on April 14th. Darvish has made just one road start, where he finished with a no-decision and gave up two homers.
So far this season, the Padres offense has been one of the best in the league, as they are 4th in runs per game (5.1), and are the top-scoring team in the league when playing on the road. Overall, they are batting .259 as a team (2nd) and have the 3rd best slugging percentage in the league. Not only do they have the league’s 6th best home run total, but they also have the 6th best BABIP in the league.
Jake Cronenworth and Jurickson Profar have been swinging the bat well for the Padres of late, with Cronenworth batting .333 over his last six games, and Profar hitting .522 over the same stretch. Cronenworth also has two homers in this stretch and has gone deep six times for the season, which is the 2nd best mark on the team. Fernando Tatis Jr. is also near the top of the league in homers, with seven, but is batting just .250 for the season.
Chicago closed out their series vs. the Brewers with a 5-0 win. Heading into the game, the Cubs were the +117 underdog at home. It was a three-run 5th inning that really turned things in their favor, and the Brewers could only score a total of four hits. Javier Assad put together a good start for the Cubs, going six innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just three walks and struck out four Brewers batters.
Dansby Swanson was hot at the plate, going 1/4 with a homer and three RBIs. The Cubs really broke things open with their three-run 5th inning, and Swanson’s homer was the big hit. Chicago’s other run came in the 6th.
Chicago is 21-14 overall this season, and they are 2nd in the NL Central, tied with the Brewers for the division lead. The Cubs just took two of three games from the Brewers and are 2-1 in the division this year. At home, the Cubs have been strong this year, putting up a 12-4 record.
As for the Cubs’ performance on the road, they are just under .500 at 9-10. Chicago has been good as the favorite this year, going 9-4, and they are 12-10 as the underdog. At home, the Cubs have gone 6-1 as the underdog. Their overall series record is 6-3-2.
Chicago has been a solid bet to cover the run line this season, going 23-12 overall. They are 10-6 at home and 13-6 on the road. The Cubs have been a great bet as the underdog, going 17-5 against the run line. Their average run differential in wins is +3.3, while their average run differential in losses is -3.7.
After an over/under line of 7 runs was set for the Cubs’ last game, the combined run total was 5, resulting in an under. For the season, the Cubs have played 34 games with over/under lines, and 85.7% of them have had higher lines than 7 runs. Their games have averaged 9.1 runs per game, and their over/under record is 15-19.
Justin Steele is getting the start for the Cubs at home against the Padres. He started the season with a no-decision on the road against the Rangers, where he went 4 2/3 innings and struck out 6. He gave up 1 earned run on 3 hits and didn’t allow a home run.
Christopher Morel comes into the game as the Cubs’ home run leader, as he has gone deep seven times this season, which is 4th best in the league. However, he is batting just .220 for the season. Morel has been swinging a better bat of late, going 5/19 in his last six games with three homers. Nico Hoerner has also been swinging a good bat of late, going 8/24 in his last six games, and he is currently on a five-game hitting streak.
As a team, the Cubs are averaging 4.8 runs per game and are one of the better home run hitting teams in the league. So far, they have been a good home team, averaging 5.5 runs per game. Overall, they are batting .237, which is 15th in the league.
Our prediction for today’s Padres vs. Cubs game is to take the Cubs to win at home. The money line for the Cubs is currently at -121, and we have them winning this one by a final score of 6-5.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Justin Steele of the Cubs with the second-best chances of picking up a win among all starters today. He is also projected to finish with seven strikeouts, which is fourth best among starters.
As for Yu Darvish, he is actually projected to finish with the second-most earned runs allowed among all starters today. If you’re looking for a strikeout prop, Darvish is projected to finish with seven, which is fifth best.
Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Betting Tips
- Take the Cubs on the moneyline
- The Cubs should also cover at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Smyly | Out | Hip |
| Cody Bellinger | Out | Ribs |
| Kyle Hendricks | Out | Back |
| Justin Steele | Probable | Hamstring |
| Seiya Suzuki | Out | Oblique |
| Julian Merryweather | Out | Back |
| Caleb Kilian | Out | Teres Major |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Forearm |
San Diego Padres Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Musgrove | Out | Elbow |
| Luis Patiño | Out | Elbow |
| Glenn Otto | Out | Shoulder |
| Tucupita Marcano | Out | Knee |
