Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
From Wrigley Field in Chicago, we have the Pirates and Cubs facing off in an NL Central matchup. The Cubs are the slight favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -122 compared to the Pirates at +104. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs.
First pitch for this one is set for 2:20 PM ET, and MARQ will be televising it. On the mound, we have Mitch Keller for the Pirates and Jameson Taillon for the Cubs. Keller is making his debut, and the Pirates are 21-26, while the Cubs are 26-21 and are 2nd in the NL Central.
Check out BetCoco for Chicago Cubs – Pittsburgh Pirates odds
Chicago Cubs Trends and Key Stats
- 2-3 is the record of Pirates in their last five road games. They have also gone 4-1 vs. the runline.
- In the Cubs’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 2-3 (SU) with 1-4 against the spread.
- The Cubs have a straight-up record of 5-5 in their last ten games as the favorite, and a 0-10 record vs. the runline.
- Over their previous ten games as the underdog, the Pirates have a straight-up record of 4-6 and a 7-3 record vs. the runline.
Chicago picked up a 1-0 win over the Pirates in the most recent game of this series. The Cubs had just one more hit than the Pirates and struck out 12 times, but still picked up the win. Heading into the game, they were favored at -201 on the money line.
Pittsburgh wasted a good outing from Bailey Falter, as he gave up just two hits and no earned runs in 7 2/3 innings of work for the Pirates. David Bednar took the loss.
The only run of the game came in the 9th inning, as Cody Bellinger scored on a wild pitch. Bellinger finished the game with two hits and scored the game’s only run.
Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
Pittsburgh is currently 4th in the NL Central with a record of 21-26, which has them seven games behind the Brewers for the division lead. So far, they are 6-7 in divisional games. The Pirates have taken the first two games of this series vs. the Cubs but lost the most recent game.
As the road underdog, the Pirates have gone 10-10 this year, and they are 12-14 overall on the road. At home, the Pirates are 9-12 this season. They have really struggled as the favorite this year, going 7-12, and they are just two games under .500 when favored at home. Pittsburgh’s overall series record is 4-7-3, and they have dropped three straight series.
When Pittsburgh wins, it usually covers the run line, as its average run margin in victories is +2.7. The Pirates are 26-21 vs. the run line overall, and 20-8 as underdogs. They’ve covered the run line in three straight road games, and are 16-10 vs. the run line on the road this season.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have played in 32 games this season with over/under lines higher than 7.5 runs, and the over/under record in those games is 22-24. Their average over/under line for the season is 8 runs, and their combined run average for the season is 8.1 runs per game. When the line is set at 7.5 runs, the over/under record is 2-7.
Mitch Keller is coming off a strong outing in which he didn’t give up a run. In that start vs. the Brewers, he went six innings and got the win. Looking at his overall numbers, Keller has made nine starts and has a record of 4-3. His ERA for the season is 3.93, along with a WHIP of 1.33. This year, opponents are batting .259 off Keller. The right-hander has made four quality starts and is averaging 8.35 strikeouts per nine innings. Keller has issued just 2.62 walks per nine innings.
Heading into today’s game, the Pirates are 27th in the league in runs scored, averaging just 3.8 runs per contest. This is even worse than their home mark of 3.3 runs per game. As a team, they are batting just .225 and have the 24th ranked OPS in the league. One positive for the Pirates is that they are 5th in the league in walks.
Andrew McCutchen has struggled this season, batting just .208, but he has been swinging the bat better of late, going 9/35 in his last nine games with three homers. Bryan Reynolds and Connor Joe have also been swinging the bat well, with Reynolds hitting .286 in his last 10 games and Joe batting .312 in his last eight games. Joe comes into the game with a three-game hitting streak, while Reynolds has a four-game streak going.
Chicago is 26-21 overall this season, putting them 2nd in the NL Central, two games behind the Brewers for the division lead. The Cubs are 5-4 in divisional games this year. They will take on the Pirates today with an overall record of 14-8 at home compared to 12-13 on the road.
The Cubs have struggled as the favorite, going 12-7, and they are an even 14-14 as the underdog. At home, Chicago is 8-5 when favored. So far, their series record is 7-5-2. The Cubs really need a win today, as they are 1-2 in the series vs. the Pirates and have gone just 4-6 over their last 10 games.
The Cubs have been a good bet on the run line this season, with a 25-22 record. They have been especially profitable on the road, going 15-10. However, they have struggled to cover the run line at home, going just 10-12. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 19-9 against the run line.
The Chicago Cubs have had 27 games with over/under lines higher than 7.5 runs, which accounts for 57.4% of their games. Their combined run average is 8.7 runs per game, and their over/under record is 20-25. In their last game against the Pittsburgh Pirates, the total was set at 8.5 runs, and the game ended with only one run scored. The over/under line for today’s game is set at 7.5 runs.
Jameson Taillon and the Cubs will be hosting the Pirates in his next start. Taillon has been solid in his first two outings, picking up a win in his first start, and then taking a loss in his last outing. He has 18 strikeouts in 15 innings of work so far this season.
Christopher Morel is the Cubs’ top power threat this season, as his nine home runs are 6th best in the league and the best mark on the team. However, he is batting just .217 for the season. Nico Hoerner has been a solid contact hitter for the Cubs, batting .269 overall, and he has gone 3/13 in his last five games. Cody Bellinger has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 12/37 in his last nine games.
As a team, the Cubs are averaging 4.5 runs per game and have been a better offense at home, averaging 4.6 runs per game. They are also a good walking team and have the 4th fewest strikeouts in the league. So far, they have the 9th most home runs in the league.
The best bet in this Cubs vs. Pirates matchup is to take the Cubs on the money line at -122. We have the Cubs winning this one by a final of 5-4. Looking at the starting pitchers, Jameson Taillon is projected to finish with five strikeouts, while Mitch Keller is projected to finish with seven.
Offensively, the Cubs are projected to finish with eight hits compared to the Pirates, who are projected to finish with eight. However, the Pirates are projected to strike out the seventh most of any team today, while the Cubs are projected to finish with the 12th most.
If you’re looking for a parlay, you could also look to take the Cubs and the over, as the line is sitting at 7.5 runs, and we have this one finishing with a combined nine runs.
Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips
- Take the Cubs on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Pirates (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Smyly | Out | Hip |
| Yency Almonte | Out | Shoulder |
| Colten Brewer | Out | Back |
| Dansby Swanson | Out | Knee |
| Keegan Thompson | Out | Illness |
| Adbert Alzolay | Out | Forearm |
| Julian Merryweather | Out | Ribs |
| Nico Hoerner | Questionable | Hamstring |
| Daniel Palencia | Out | Shoulder |
| Caleb Kilian | Out | Teres Major |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Forearm |
Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Johan Oviedo | Out | Elbow |
| Marco Gonzales | Out | Forearm |
| Ke’Bryan Hayes | Out | Back |
| Ryan Borucki | Out | Tricep |
| Jason Delay | Out | Knee |
| Dauri Moreta | Out | Elbow |
| Endy Rodríguez | Out | Elbow |
