Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
The forecast for Saturday’s Pirates vs. Cubs matchup calls for clear skies and temperatures in the mid-70s. This NL Central matchup is set to get started at 2:20 PM ET from Wrigley Field in Chicago, and the Cubs are the heavy favorite on the money line at -200. The Pirates have won two straight and their record of 21-25 ranks 3rd in the NL Central, while the Cubs are 2nd in the division with a record of 25-21.
Shota Imanaga will be on the mound for the Cubs, while the Pirates are starting Bailey Falter. Pittsburgh has won two straight, while the Cubs have also won two in a row. Today’s over/under line is sitting at 7.5 runs, and MARQ will be televising this game.
Check out BetCoco for Chicago Cubs – Pittsburgh Pirates odds
Chicago Cubs Trends and Key Stats
- The Pirates are 3-2 across their last five road games. They have gone 4-1 vs. the runline.
- On the opposing side, the Cubs have a 2-3 (SU) record, along with a 1-4 record in their last five home contests.
- Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Cubs have a straight-up record of 5-5, while going 1-9 against the runline.
- Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Pirates have a 4-6 straight-up record and a 7-3 record vs. the runline.
Pittsburgh cruised to a 9-3 win over the Cubs in the most recent game of this series. The Pirates had a huge 8th inning, scoring three runs and picking up all eight of their hits. As for the Cubs, they scored their only three runs in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Pirates were favored at -118.
Paul Skenes pitched well for the Pirates in this one, going six innings and striking out 11 without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Kyle Hendricks took the loss for the Cubs, going just 4 2/3 innings and giving up seven earned runs.
Jared Triolo and Andrew McCutchen each homered for the Pirates, while Connor Joe went 3/5 with an RBI. Yasmani Grandal also had a three RBI game at the plate.
Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
The Pirates have taken the first two games of their series vs. the Cubs and overall, are 21-25, placing them 3rd in the NL Central. Currently, they trail the Brewers by six games in the division. So far, they have gone just 6-6 in divisional games this year.
At home, the Pirates are 9-12 this year and are just above .500 at 12-13 on the road. As the underdog, Pittsburgh is 14-13 this year compared to 7-12 as the favorite. Looking at their overall series record, the Pirates are 4-7-3 and have dropped three straight series.
The Pirates have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 25-21. They are 15-10 on the run line on the road and have covered in two straight games. They have been a better bet on the run line as the underdog, going 19-8. Their average run margin in winning games is +2.7, while it is -3.3 in losing games.
With a combined run average of 8.3 runs per game, the Pittsburgh Pirates have seen their games go over the over/under line in 22 of their 45 games this season. The over/under line for today’s game against the Chicago Cubs is set at 7.5 runs, and their games have gone over the line in 67.4% of their games this season. The over has hit in each of their last three games, and the over/under line has been set at 7.5 runs in nine of their games this season.
Pittsburgh is sending left-hander Bailey Falter to the mound today vs. the Cubs. He has made eight starts this year and has a record of 2-2 with an ERA of 4.15. Falter’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.04. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, going six innings and giving up two earned runs on five hits. Looking back over his last three outings, Falter has finished with a no-decision in each one. He has made three quality starts this year and is averaging 5.61 strikeouts per nine innings.
As a team, the Pirates are batting just .226 this season, which is 21st in the league. However, they do have three players who are in the top 10 in home runs, including Oneil Cruz, who is 7th in the league with seven homers. Cruz is also 3rd on the team with 18 RBIs. Connor Joe and Andrew McCutchen have also gone deep six times this season.
Andrew McCutchen has been swinging the bat well of late, going 6/17 with two homers over his last four games. Bryan Reynolds has also been hot, going 9/22 in his last five games. This has helped him move his season average up to .254.
Chicago will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak today, as they are also trying to avoid being swept by the Pirates, who are 6.0 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. Currently, the Cubs are 2.0 games behind the Brewers in the division and have an overall record of 25-21.
At home, the Cubs are 13-8 this year and 12-13 on the road. As the favorite, Chicago is 11-7 and 14-14 as the underdog. So far, the Cubs have dropped three straight at home, and their overall series record is 7-5-2.
When betting the run line, the Cubs have been a better play on the road (15-10) than at home (10-11). They have been a good bet as the underdog (19-9) but have struggled as the favorite (6-12). The average run differential in their wins is +3.3, while the average run differential in their losses is -3.6.
Chicago’s over/under record is 20-24, and the average over/under line in their games is 8 runs. In games with a line of 7.5 runs, the over/under record is 6-7. The Cubs have had over/under lines of 7.5 runs in 13 of their 37 games this season, which is 35.1% of the time. Their over streak is currently at 2 games.
Shota Imanaga gets the start for the Cubs today and is looking to build off his last outing, where he finished with a no-decision. Against the Braves, he went five innings, giving up no earned runs, and three hits. Looking back further, Imanaga has made five straight quality starts and has an overall record of 5-0. His ERA for the season is an impressive 0.96, along with a WHIP of 0.94. Imanaga’s strikeout per nine innings figure is 9.84. So far, he has allowed just three home runs. Per nine innings, he is giving up just 1.54 walks.
So far this season, the Cubs have been a solid offensive team, averaging 4.5 runs per game, which is 12th in the league. They have been even better at home, putting up 4.8 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .234, and their team on-base percentage is .316. The Cubs are 8th in the league in home runs, and they have been one of the better teams in terms of drawing walks.
Christopher Morel comes into the game as the Cubs’ top power threat, as his nine homers are 5th in the league. However, he is batting just .215 for the season and has gone 4/22 over his last six games. Cody Bellinger and Michael Busch are tied for 2nd on the team with seven homers apiece. Bellinger is batting .256 for the season, while Busch is hitting .250.
Our prediction for the Cubs and Pirates matchup is to take the over, as we see the Cubs taking this one by a final score of 6-5. However, at -200, the payout isn’t great for a money line bet, and we would recommend taking the over at 7.5 runs.
Looking at today’s starters, we have Shota Imanaga finishing with six strikeouts compared to Bailey Falter with five. However, there are a few other starters we like more than Imanaga, as he is 11th in our projections for strikeouts today.
Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips
- Take the Cubs on the moneyline
- On the run line we like the Pirates (+1.5)
- Projecting a combined 11 runs, we like the over
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Smyly | Out | Hip |
| Yency Almonte | Out | Shoulder |
| Colten Brewer | Out | Back |
| Dansby Swanson | Out | Knee |
| Keegan Thompson | Out | Illness |
| Adbert Alzolay | Out | Forearm |
| Julian Merryweather | Out | Ribs |
| Nico Hoerner | Questionable | Hamstring |
| Daniel Palencia | Out | Shoulder |
| Caleb Kilian | Out | Teres Major |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Forearm |
Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Johan Oviedo | Out | Elbow |
| Marco Gonzales | Out | Forearm |
| Ke’Bryan Hayes | Out | Back |
| Ryan Borucki | Out | Tricep |
| Jason Delay | Out | Knee |
| Dauri Moreta | Out | Elbow |
| Endy Rodríguez | Out | Elbow |
