Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
From Wrigley Field in Chicago, we have a Pirates vs. Cubs matchup. The money line odds have the Pirates at -114 compared to the Cubs at -105, and the over/under line is sitting at 7.5 runs. Kyle Hendricks is starting for the Cubs, and he is facing off against Paul Skanes for the Pirates. Skanes is making his MLB debut.
First pitch for this one is set for 2:20 PM ET, and MLBN will be carrying the TV coverage for the game. The Cubs are 2nd in the NL Central, while the Pirates are 3rd, and their overall record is 25-20.
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Chicago Cubs Trends and Key Stats
- The Pirates are 2-3 across their last five road games. They have gone 3-2 vs. the runline.
- In the Cubs’ five most recent home games, their record stands at 2-3 (SU) with 1-4 against the spread.
- In the past ten games, when playing as the favorite, the Pirates have a record of 3-7, while as the underdog, they have a record of 4-6.
- In their last ten games, the Cubs have a record of 5-5 as the favorite and 4-6 as the underdog.
Pittsburgh picked up a 5-4 road win over the Cubs in the most recent game of this series. The Pirates had a two-run lead heading into the 4th inning, and the Cubs could only muster one run in the 8th inning as they tried to rally. Heading into the game, the Pirates were at +105 on the money line.
Jared Jones started for the Pirates and picked up the win, going six innings and giving up three earned runs. He finished the game with seven strikeouts but issued zero walks. As for the Cubs, Justin Steele got the start and took the loss, giving up five earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work.
At the plate, the Pirates were led by Edward Olivares, who homered and went 2/4 with two RBIs. Nick Gonzales also had a two-hit game and scored a run for Pittsburgh. Ian Happ hit the game’s only other home run for the Cubs, going 1/4.
Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
Pittsburgh is 20-25 overall and trails the Brewers by seven games in the NL Central. Currently, they are 3rd in the NL Central and have gone 5-6 in divisional matchups. The Pirates are on a three-game series losing streak, and their overall series record is 4-7-3 this year.
At home, the Pirates are 9-12 this season, and they are just above .500 at 11-13 on the road. So far, the Pirates have dropped three straight as the favorite, and they are only 6-12 when favored this year. As for their record as the underdog, the Pirates are 14-13 this season.
When the Pirates are favored, they are a poor bet to cover the run line, with a 5-13 record. However, as an underdog, they are 19-8 vs. the run line. Their overall run line record is 24-21, and they have covered the run line in three straight games. Their average run margin is -0.7 runs per game, and they have a run line record of 14-10 on the road.
With a combined run average of 8.2 runs per game, the Pittsburgh Pirates have seen their games go over the over/under line of 7.5 runs in just one of their eight games this season when the line has been set at 7.5 runs. Overall, the Pirates’ games have gone over the total in 21 of their 44 games this season, and they are currently on a two-game over streak.
Paul Skenes and the Pirates are on the road to face the Cubs. Skenes started the season with a no-decision against the Cubs, and he went 4 innings, giving up 3 earned runs and striking out 7. He did give up a home run in that outing.
Over his last five games, Bryan Reynolds has gone 8/26 (.308) with one home run and three RBIs. For the season, he is batting .250 and is 3rd on the team with five homers. Oneil Cruz and Connor Joe are also near the top of the Pirates home run leaderboard, with Cruz’s seven homers being the best mark on the team and Joe’s six homers putting him in 2nd place.
As a team, the Pirates are batting just .223, which is 22nd in the league. They are also near the bottom of the league in runs per game, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Overall, they are averaging just 3.7 runs per game. Pittsburgh’s offense will be looking to turn things around at home, where they are averaging just 3.3 runs per contest.
With a record of 25-20, the Cubs are 2nd in the NL Central, two games behind the Brewers for the division lead. Chicago is 4-3 in divisional games and lost the series opener to the Pirates. Overall, the Cubs have gone 4-6 across their last ten games.
At home, the Cubs are 13-7 this year compared to 12-13 on the road. As the underdog, the Cubs are just above .500 at 14-13, and they are 11-7 when favored. So far, they have a series record of 7-5-2 this year.
Chicago has been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 25-20 overall. The Cubs have been a better bet on the run line on the road, going 15-10, compared to 10-10 at home. Chicago has been a better bet on the run line as an underdog, going 19-8, compared to 6-12 as a favorite.
Today’s over/under line for the Cubs’ game against the Pirates is 7.5 runs, which is slightly lower than their average over/under line of 8 runs per game. The Cubs have played 26 games with higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs, and their games have averaged a combined 8.8 runs per game this season. Their over/under record for the season is 19-24, and they have a 5-7 record in games with an over/under line of 7.5 runs.
Kyle Hendricks will be looking to pick up his first win of the season today as he faces the Pirates at home. Through six starts, Hendricks has a record of 0-3 and an ERA of 1.04. His WHIP for the season is 1.92. In his last outing, Hendricks finished with a no-decision, going five innings and giving up one earned run on four hits. Before that, he had given up at least four earned runs in three straight starts. Opponents are batting .333 this season off Hendricks, and he has allowed a total of nine home runs.
So far, the Cubs offense is 11th in the league in runs per game at 4.6. They have been slightly better at home, averaging 4.9 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .236, which is 15th in the MLB right now. Chicago has been good at drawing walks this season and have the 8th best on-base percentage in the league.
Christopher Morel has struggled for the Cubs this season, hitting just .208, but he does lead the team with nine homers and is 9th in the league in RBIs. However, he is hitting just .172 over his last eight games. Cody Bellinger has gone 10/34 in his last eight games and is currently on a five-game hitting streak.
With the Cubs being the underdog in this one, we see them as a great value pick to win straight up at -105. Our predicted final score is 5-4 in favor of the Cubs, giving you a couple of different ways you could look to bet this one.
Looking at the starting pitcher’s projections, we have Kyle Hendricks finishing with four strikeouts, which is the lowest among today’s starters. As for Paul Skenes, he is projected to finish with five strikeouts.
Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Tips
- Take the Cubs on the moneyline
- The Cubs are also our pick on the run line at +1.5
- Projecting a combined 9 runs, we like the over
Chicago Cubs Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Smyly | Out | Hip |
| Yency Almonte | Out | Shoulder |
| Dansby Swanson | Out | Knee |
| Keegan Thompson | Out | Illness |
| Adbert Alzolay | Out | Forearm |
| Julian Merryweather | Out | Ribs |
| Nico Hoerner | Questionable | Hamstring |
| Daniel Palencia | Out | Shoulder |
| Caleb Kilian | Out | Teres Major |
| Jordan Wicks | Out | Forearm |
Pittsburgh Pirates Injury Report
| Player | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| Johan Oviedo | Out | Elbow |
| Marco Gonzales | Out | Forearm |
| Ke’Bryan Hayes | Out | Back |
| Ryan Borucki | Out | Tricep |
| Jason Delay | Out | Knee |
| Dauri Moreta | Out | Elbow |
| Endy Rodríguez | Out | Elbow |
