Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Betting Tips 7/2/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview

From Wrigley Field in Chicago, we have the Phillies and Cubs facing off in an NL matchup. This one gets started at 8:05 PM ET and is being televised by MARQ.

The Phillies are 1st in the NL East with a record of 55-29, while the Cubs are 5th in the NL Central and have a record of 39-46. The money line odds have the Cubs at -127, while the Phillies are the slight underdog at +108. Tuesday’s over/under line is 9.5 runs, and the forecast calls for broken clouds and temperatures in the low 80s.

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Chicago Cubs Trends and Key Stats

• 2-3 is the record of Phillies in their last five road games. They have also gone 2-3 vs. the runline.
• Conversely, the Cubs have achieved a 2-3 (SU) record and 2-3 record in their last five home games.
• As the favorite, the Cubs are 3-7 over their last ten games, including going 3-7 vs. the runline.
• Looking back at their last ten games as the underdog, the Phillies have a 5-5 straight-up record and a 5-5 record vs. the runline.

Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

The Phillies’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Marlins, closing out their series with a 7-6 win. After allowing one run to the Marlins in the top of the first, the Phillies responded with two runs of their own. Philadelphia went on to add another five runs in the 2nd inning.

Ranger Suarez got the start for the Phillies but only lasted 4 2/3 innings, giving up six earned runs on nine hits. Alec Bohm hit a homer for the Phillies but went just 2/5. Nick Castellanos scored three runs, going 4/5 at the plate.

With an overall record of 55-29, the Phillies lead the NL East by 8 games over the Braves. Philadelphia will be on the road today, taking on the Cubs. So far, they have gone 14-8 in divisional games.

At home, the Phillies have been tough to beat, going 33-14 this season. On the road, they are 22-15 and have been really good in night games, going 35-14. As the favorite, the Phillies are 49-23 this season, and they are 6-6 as the underdog. Looking at their overall series record, the Phillies are 17-7-5 this year.

When betting the run line on the Phillies this season, it’s been a mixed bag. They are 44-40 overall, but just 20-17 on the road. They are 38-34 when favored, but just 6-6 when the underdog. The average run differential in their wins is +3.8, but in their losses, it’s -3.0.

The Phillies are on the road against the Cubs today. The O/U line for the game is set at 9.5 runs, which is higher than their season average of 8.6 runs per game. Overall, the Phillies have gone 36-43 on O/U lines this season, and their games have had an average O/U line of 8 runs. When the O/U line has been set at 9.5 runs, the Phillies have gone 2-5. Only 4.8% of their games have had O/U lines set at 9.5 runs or higher, with the vast majority of their games having lower O/U lines.

Michael Mercado is making his first start of the season for the Phillies, as he comes into today’s game against the Cubs after a one-inning relief appearance vs. the Tigers. In that outing, he struck out one batter and did not allow a run.

As a team, the Phillies are the league’s top-scoring team at home, averaging 5.3 runs per game. Overall, they are 4th in the league at 5 runs per contest. Philadelphia is also among the league leaders in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Heading into the game, they have a team batting average of .259.

Bryce Harper has been on a tear of late, going 7/18 in his last four games with two homers and seven RBIs. Harper is 6th in the league with 20 homers and is batting .303 for the season. Alec Bohm has also been swinging the bat well of late, going 2/7 in his last seven games with two homers. For the season, he is batting .300 and leads the Phillies with 68 RBIs.

The Cubs will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Brewers with a 7-1 loss. Chicago was the +165 underdog on the money line going into this road game. Things started off well for the Cubs, as they got on the board with a run in the 1st inning but gave up the lead right away as the Brewers scored seven times in the 4th.

Kyle Hendricks had a rough outing, giving up seven earned runs on seven hits and issuing three walks. He only lasted json>3 2/3 innings, taking the loss. The Cubs’s offense scored their only run on a home run by Nico Hoerner but went just json>1/4 at the plate.

Chicago is 5th in the NL Central at 39-46, putting them 11 games behind the Brewers for the division lead. So far, they have gone just 10-19 in divisional games. The Cubs are looking to snap a three-series losing streak, and their overall series record is 9-16-2 this year.

At home, the Cubs are 22-18 this year compared to 17-28 on the road. Chicago has really struggled as of late, going just 3-7 over their last ten games. As the favorite, the Cubs are 20-20 this year and 14-14 as the home favorite. Today’s game vs. the Phillies will be their first game as the favorite this season.

When betting the run line on the Cubs, it’s been more profitable to take them as the underdog. They are 29-16 against the run line in those games, compared to 11-29 as the favorite. Their overall run line record is 40-45, and they have a negative run differential on the season at -0.4 runs per game.

The Chicago Cubs have an over/under record of 36-45 this season, and their games have averaged a combined 8.5 runs per game. The Cubs have played in 7 games this season with an over/under line of 9.5, and their record in those games is 4-1. Overall, only 8.2% of their games have had an over/under line of 9.5 or higher.

Chicago is starting right-hander Hayden Wesneski today vs. the Phillies, and he has made 21 appearances this year to go along with four starts. Wesneski’s record for the year is 2-4, and his ERA is 3.60. So far, he has made two quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he went four innings, giving up three earned runs, and took the loss. In that outing, he gave up a homer. Wesneski has not allowed a homer in his last two outings out of the bullpen. His ERA for the year as a starter is 4.92 compared to 5.25 as a reliever.

For the season, the Cubs are averaging 4.1 runs per game, which is 21st in the league. They have been a better offense at home, averaging 4.3 runs per game compared to 3.9 on the road. As a team, the Cubs are batting just .228, which is 20th in the league.

Chicago’s top power threat is Christopher Morel, who has 15 home runs this season, but he is batting just .198 for the season and has gone 6/30 in his last nine games. Ian Happ has 11 homers this season and is 2nd on the team with 44 RBIs, but he is also batting just .229 for the season and has gone 5/28 in his last nine games. Nico Hoerner comes into the game on an eight-game hitting streak and is batting .306 over his last nine games.

With the Phillies going off at +108 on the money line, that is the route we recommend going for today’s Phillies vs. Cubs matchup. We have the Phillies winning this one by a score of 6-4, giving us some room to take the Phillies on the run line, or you could go with the over if you see this one being a high-scoring game.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Hayden Wesneski finishing with just four strikeouts and giving up four earned runs. If you’re looking at the Cubs vs. Phillies matchup, we have the Cubs finishing with just eight hits and nine strikeouts.

Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Tips

• We like the Phillies on the moneyline (+108)
• The Phillies are also our pick on the spread at +1.5
• Projecting a combined 10 runs, we like the over

Chicago Cubs Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies Injury Report